Hey hey: what's up my friend, so welcome back to this month's market analysis. If this is the first time you're watching this video right, where you see you know me talking to this webcam and there's a chat in front of you, this is a monthly video that I do and I'll share my top process of the markets. It's not really! Educational content, like my other YouTube videos, this is a monthly video where I share with you my trading top process of our markets, I'm trading. Why I'm looking to enter? What is the trade setup? You know my readers, my losers, etc.

So a lot of times right. Many traders just think that I post our educational campaign cherry-pick chance right hindsight trading, but I have this type of you know monthly videos that they are not aware of right. So if you're watching this right, you're, probably one of the few percentage of traders who are aware of this and if you're aware of this right say got it in the comment section below just say: got it right and I know you're one of the insiders. So to kick things off, let's have a look at the trip that I took and it's not looking too pretty for me and I want to share with you the top process behind it and why I took the trick.

So I am looking at New Zealand dollar. This one over here and this market is actually in a downtrend. You can see a series of you know: lower highs and lower lows right. This lower high low high and lower low lower low, and on top of it, I classified this as a strong downtrend, because if you pull out the 20 ma, you notice the prices below it.

It test at once over here twice and at that time over here. So that that time is where it caught my interest, where I was looking for a sell opportunity because for starters number one we are in a downtrend number two, we are at this area of value, which is the tweenty MA and I'm a tree. We had this a previous swing low that could become support, so the entry trigger that I got was only for our time frame and for those of you who have been following my worker now, you are probably familiar with the technique that I call the break off Structure, so you can see that prior up on this pullback over here, you have a series of higher lows and higher high and at this point right at this point, let me just highlight you the point that I'm looking at at this point. Okay, this swing low over here or support, if you wan na call it if the price breaks me is loose at this point, the price would have created a lower high and lower low, and this is what I call a brick off structure.

So there are a few things coming my way now number one: the daily timeframe you seen the downtrend number two, the Daley's is at an area of value in the 20 ma plus the previous swing low. That could become resistance and I'm a tree. We have a break of structure here on the forward timeframe. Signaling then the sellers are in control and the price could hit lower.

So I went short. My stop-loss is 180 are above this high somewhere about here. Okay, my stop-loss and entry trigger is somewhere here. So the market it did when in my favor a little bit before I started reversing now against me, so my stop-loss is in place.

I'm gon na respect my stop-loss if he hits my stop-loss I'm out of the training. Clearly I'm wrong on this trade. So I'm wrong many times right, I'm not afraid to share. This is my top process for a New Zealand dollar and and yeah.

Let's see how this one plays out. That's the one thing that I want to share with you. Moving on. I also want to share with you a very interesting setup on a market that many people has been bearish on right.

If you look at oil, ok, the weekly timeframe, you see, the oil has collapsed right. I'm just gon na zoom on this chat to a maximum. Okay, so based on trading view based on the data feed from winda oil right, the last time he hits. The lows of $ 25 is sometime back in 2003, so fast forward.

Almost I was 17 years later right. Price has now oil in $ 20 a barrel multi-year lows. Definitely and what's interesting, is that on the weekly timeframe you have a massive falls breakdown. So if you just zoom out work in again, you can see that price retest at this significant loss.

Multi-Year lows over here, as well as the loss that you can see, which is further further back on the left and any reverse back and close back above this area of support. So this is a sign of strength. Okay, and on top of it right up, is that multi, yellow multi-year lows multi-year low levels now the question is you know this is a good time to buy. Well, I don't trade off the weekly timeframe, but if let's say I do trick of the trade off the weekly timeframe right, I have no issues right.

One thing to treat this false break down I'll, be looking to place a buy, stop order above this size and stop-loss. So I can just go. 180 are below this lows, and if you have to do it, you can see that your stop-loss gon na be pretty wise, like gon na be like $ 13 or so right on oil. So, instead, what I'm looking to do instead is to use again around the break of structure technique which I have shared with you earlier again.

You can see that this concept, this principle right, is pretty much universal. So now this is the weekly timeframe, the higher time frame. Now, let's go down to the 8 on what time frame and look for a break off structure. So at this point in time right, you can observe that this market structure it has for me potentially higher low over here now - has it form a higher high.

Well, not quite right. Only if the price breaks above this high in his name, we can see that there is a higher low and a higher high, and we can see that buyers are potentially they are in control in the price we hit up higher okay. So so what I'm? Looking for is again for the 20ma to surface a cut line right. I want this 20 ma this red line over here to touch the lows of the build up to touch the lows of this level, because when that happens right, you would give me right build up - that's being formed over here.

So when that happens right for that to happen right, there would have to be. You know a few more consolidation candles over here: okay and that kind of act as a new price structure that I can lean against to set my stop loss - and this is also another sign of strength, because it's telling me that buyers they're willing to buy at This higher prices by is I'm willing to buy at this area of resistance, so I'm giving it a few more candles to form possibly know three to five more candles. Let that 20 ma slowly slope up and touch the lows of the build up, possibly somewhere here. When that happens, right I'll, be looking to buy oil stop-loss, I will be sorry.

The entry right will be a buy stop order above this ice. So if the price breaks above that highs, I've been looking to buy stop-loss, all right, we'll be just 180 - are below the low of the build up. So let's say this is the law of the build up? Okay, let's hit market consolidate right at this point. Is the low of the boot up I will set my stop-loss 180 are below it possibly somewhere here? Okay, then, are we looking to buy if the price can break up of this heist? Okay and to see whether you know a new bullish trend could eat much, and I would look to trail my stop-loss accordingly.

So all is definitely a market that is wool. Okay, it has collapsed a lot in recent times. Many people are not looking at this. Earlier.

Look into stock markets and whatnot, but oil, definitely something you know. Interesting is brewing in this market. Okay, and not only all right. I wan na bring you somewhere towards the bond markets right.

If you look at a five-year Treasury note futures, you can see that this market also right near the Heinz. If you just pull out a twenty ma, you can see that this market is pretty much in a strong uptrend. The price has been, you know, hovering right stadia before this 20 ma for quite a while there's that once twice thrice and right now, I'm possibly coming back for another bounce at this minor low over here so again right the plan to train this is a couple Of ways to move on what you can do is you can treat the the falls break on the lower timeframe. Let's say you go down to the four hour or eight hour time frame.

You can see that there's this lows over here the market come down lower, lower and then make a sudden reversal up higher, closing back above this area of support. So this reversal right is something that you have seen earlier on: oil right, a very strong big bullish, engulfing pattern on the weekly timeframe. Okay, let me just bring down the oil market, so you can see how strong that price rejection is. I don't know weekly.

You can see ok, very strong price rejection, so this is the type of rejection that I want to see on the five-year bond for our timeframe right since I'm trading off the forward timeframe, I can trade off this price rejection, because my stops will not be so White, okay, so let's say the market does come into this area of support: reverse up higher close back up of support, I'll, be looking to buy stop-loss 1h here below the slowest possible targets, or I said this area of resistance here and then holding possibly a small Portion, maybe half of my position right to see if the price can break above this area of resistance. So this is a couple of trait management techniques. Then you can use alright shoot the price break out of resistance and he's too on the capture. You know a piece of the move right and and get some some some catching out of it.

Okay, so this one is the five year or Treasury, note futures and finally, right just to show you with you one last thing: okay, so this is a trading setup that is a little bit more of a counter trend: trade, okay, so this dollar Mexican right can See that this market pretty much win parabolic right, this whole range of candles over here right just day after day, you know breaking out new highs. You can see that we had a pullback, a pretty strong pullback this tree candle, pullback and then market retest. The highs again right but fill on this candle notice that this candle is what I call a false breakout where the price broke above the highest, a magic trade us when they see that the price breakup of this house they go along right here. The market is in a breakout right, this is bullish.

Let me call long trend is strong right. Let's see how that goes. The next thing, you know the same: candle, just reverse and close near the lows, and now they are in pain. So, no doubt I agree that the trend is still towards the upside, but there is opportunity right for a swing trade shot right towards the downside.

What I'm looking for again is a very simple technique called the break off structure. Let me share with you how that could possibly add fall so again. Market is now made a pullback. So what I'm looking for is a weak pullback up higher right, maybe a small range candles.

You know three to five candles making a pullback here: okay, when a price couldn't pull back further, I'm looking to sell the breakdown of this loss over the market fails. Do we know retest the highs to pull back it's nothing. To show again, I mean the sellers. Are starting to come in right, it's gon na break below this swing low and when it does, you now have a lower, high and low low.

You know we're looking to take a shot position right. Possible targets is at this area of support over here that you've seen earlier on a higher time frame where it's a swing low. So that's a significant level, I'm not looking for any aggressive targets here because, as you've seen right on the higher time frame, it's in an uptrend right, so don't want to get too greedy with such a counter trend trade soar, I'm trading against the Train. So having conservative targets right would suit me perfectly okay.

So that's a the final one that I want to share with. You is the dollar against the Mexicannot, a potential short trip towards that outside and now at this point in time. Right, if you like to learn more about you know such trading price action trading trading without indicators, mainly with just a naked shot. Okay, what's happening is that, right now in Roman, for my premium training program called the ultimate price action trader is now open.

Okay, I'll leave the details below you can check it out right. I think Roman is going to close this weekend. So, if you're interested to learn more by the way I analyze the way I trade, the markets, I'll put the link below you, can click on it and learn more and see whether it's a good fit for you. So with that said, I wish you good luck and good trading trade safe, and I will talk to you soon.