What's going on everybody on facebook or wherever you're, seeing this in the future youtube instagram wherever facebook uh coach tom ferry in the house, i've got uh a fabulous next hour for you we're talking about this week in housing, david, it's been a while. I know that uh, you know sort of pre-summit and then post summit i was traveling. We did that whole event, thing uh, so for my friends out there that are watching you know, our intention with this show always is to bring you real data, real facts, real information. So once again you could be the educator in your marketplace.

You know so much of what's happening in our world today is who do we trust right? Who can you trust and you - and i both know, as as that hub of your community and whether that community is the whole city the whole? You know region or just your street, your neighbors, your past clients and your friends. We need to be the ones that are showing up with the data with the facts, so people can make good decisions about. Should they refinance money out of their house? Should they buy a second home, should they buy their first home? What's going to happen with home prices, what's happening with the economy, and you know it's so fascinating being in the position that i'm in having you know lots of very interesting friends in in my home. In dallas, my next-door neighbor is the uh chairman of the dallas reserve like and he's for the texas reserve, uh interesting guy, to talk to probably probably need to get him on my podcast um or you know my buddy dawn who's, the former ceo of american airlines And you know all of these guys all ask the same question so fairy you know how's real estate, what's going on and every one of them just like every person you talk to has an opinion and i think it's pretty safe to say that the vast majority Of the people, their opinions based upon a headline hearsay, somebody said something they heard something or they're, just still licking their wounds from two thousand seven, eight nine.

So they give you this reaction. Prices are going to go down. You know if, if presidential candidate x gets in the whole world's going to blow up right and home prices are going to go down, today's show we want to address all of that more to once again put you in the best possible position to be the educator. So, to help us do that, obviously, i've got david childers from uh keeping current matters good morning.

David welcome to the show. Thank you tom. I'm excited to be back. It's uh, it's been a while, since we've done it coming out of the summit and had fun there and then jason, and i had a chance to to do this a couple weeks ago, but excited to be back and excited to be with you absolutely.

Thank you. My friends and i've got two great coaches. I've got carlton bell coming in from the the greater dc metro marketplace good morning, cb and by the way, you've lost some weight. My friend you're looking good.

Thank you, sir. Thank you glad to be here glad to be a part. Thank you outstanding and johanna from the great state, my new home state of texas good morning, johanna good morning honored to be here. Yes - and i know you were literally just hopping off a coaching session, so you know, as always, i want to bring in you know: coaches people that are active.

Do me a favor real fast, i'm going to refresh my own facebook page over here, because i've got it here and there, but what i would love for you to do right now, my friends, because we're doing this on a wednesday where we were typically doing it. Every other week, on a friday, we had a good cadence with that, and i i see lots of you there out there. Would you do me a favor right now. Would you tag like literally i'm going to make a big request, three to four agents that you know that are like us, like you, that are good knowledge brokers that care about their business and they want to be great educators.

We just in the comments tag three or four people your broker could be your loan officer could be. You know two great pals of yours, that you know you respect them immensely. Do me a favor and do that right now, because the more people that see this information, the better so with that said, david we're going to talk about the housing recovery, we're going to talk about the new unemployment numbers you know and how people are reacting and Responding to that we're going to talk about forbearance as always and and even though we didn't frame it this way, what we're really talking about is hey the election cycle's coming up, and does that mean that the whole real estate prices and world is going to fall Apart or not so we're going to cover all that in 45 to 55 minutes i'll be looking for your questions, uh but david, why don't we start with you? Why don't you take it over take control and for all my friends out, there know he's gon na drive and you know johanna and carlton and myself are going to dig in and say wait a minute. This is what we should do or here's an opinion.

So david absolutely yeah, i mean, let's start there with housing recovery. I want to give you kind of an update. You know, we've talked a lot about this over, you know. Applications and pending deals all of those things.

So let me share here and and and we'll start here with the housing market recovery index. If you remember that, we've talked about it for several months now, nara released this during the pandemic, taking demand supply price and time on market and saying where are we at relative to where we started the year, and certainly through the through the downturn of uh quarantine? Lockdown and and back up and what you can see right there is i i would offer in this how the housing market is back, we're above where we started uh. You know the pandemic back uh, you know in the early march time frame and and certainly we can say with confidence that in housing we've seen a v-shaped recovery. Now, on the front end of this tom, we talked a lot about that.

There were people, you know putting themselves out there and and your questions about. Are we going to see a v? We can say confidently in housing. You know we have seen that. I think it's due to all the great work of you know: agents across the country that that listen here and this week in housing have gotten out there and gotten the good word out done the work to help folks, you know, make confident decisions uh relative to Buying and selling homes - and you know as we continue on with that - i pulled this quote from from fannie mae.

It says housing data over the past month continue to show a strong v-shape rebound helping drive the broader economy. So we know housing is driving the broader economy right now there is a question. Most economists do agree that uh the overall economy is in some sort of v shape. The question is the inflection of the of the return and that's going to be largely due to or are dependent upon, uh you know, recovery and the pandemic and all the things going on there.

But if we were to take a snack shot, you go ahead tom, but first i want to just go back. Go back a slide. If you would please you know, we've been looking at this. You know this v-shape recovery.

You know what the swoosh the nike the w every time please and then it just skyrocketed up like like every stock that we want to own. But you can see once we get into kind of middle of july august. All the way through to yesterday we're having some of these ups and downs right and it seems like every time it drops just a little bit agents and i want to hear from you know, carlton and johanna on this. The agents go like this.

Oh finally, like you know, 48 hours to breathe, but it seems like a lot of consumers and a lot of the prognosticators aren't paying attention to those leading indicators. The way we are so i want to hear first from you know, johanna and carlton when when you guys see that sort of that top you know june july august and it's it's sort of bouncing up - it's all going high and right. But it's bouncing. How do you interpret that, and what do you say to your clients in a slow week or that slow part of the season that you know might even be three days? What's your advice to them, johanna? Well, you know, i think, my advice to the agents that i coach is just like my advice to sellers that there's always two things that we need to prepare for.

I need you to prepare that your house is going to sell right away, and i need you to prepare that it might take a little bit longer and i think it's the same thing for for the agents. You need to be prepared that we're just going to be taken off and we've got tons of work to do and we got to buckle down and i need you to prepare be prepared that there might be a day or two or three or four or a Week or two where it's going to dip down, what are you prepared to do during those times so like having two plans? The the crazy plan and the slowdown plan? Hey every every smart business person has two plans. I believe yep love it cb. What about yourself? How do you, how do you interpret that and what advice do you offer to the agents you work with? Well, the agents that i the agents that i'm coaching, what i'm telling them is not to be so much focused on the inconsistency in the market.

To really be focused on the consistency within their business and the things that they do to drive the business and to keep the business moving forward. I think, if they're focused on the inconsistency, then they're allowing the negative to slip into their thought process which overall affects the business plan, the objective and the goal that they're trying to accomplish. So they have to be able to convey that information to the seller also or to the buyer mainly to the buyer, because the buyers are the ones that are normally on the fence off the fence on the fence off the fence. But the buyers have to be able to make the decision and have confidence in the agent's ability to guide them through that process.

I i got ta tell you for both of you. Both those insights are really key. You know no, no great business owner walks in this was only plan a johanna. I love that and don't focus on the inconsistencies of the market.

Carlton focus on your consistencies. I think for all my friends out there on facebook. We need some hearts and likes for that, because that was very powerful advice. David most consumers don't understand when you start talking about price, and you know timing, and you know they don't understand that everybody wants to time the market.

Why isn't everybody talking about those four things? Why aren't all the prognostic otters, prognostic cotters? You know what i'm saying: why are they talking about that? You know it's! It's very interesting! Uh i'll, tell you something! That's happening right now. Relative to data is just a general statement. Is we're seeing experts forecast, i'm going to call it in any category a number and we're seeing the number outperform that right now and what do we know right now? Consumer confidence has just come in at the highest reading. Ever well over what experts thought consumer confidence was going to come into.

So i think what you're seeing is some hesitation in in the experts saying we don't know how it's going to be, and consumers saying no. You know, certainly in our business, wanting to transact wanting to do business uh, you know across the country. Do you think some of that david is like the publicly traded ceos that are very mindful like they can't be crazy bullish with their numbers for the next quarter, because if they do, they get hammered kind of same concept? I i think there is a lot to that. You know i mean what's the worst thing you want to do here in 2020, is: go out and be bullish and be wrong and say: hey, you know, let's go and do this and then get the backlash for that.

So i think, there's a lot of truth to that love it well, let's, let's jump over to that snapshot year over year, changes in key metrics. I think that was a really key slide, and this is going to be one of those that that i think everybody watching right now needs to think about how you're going to incorporate this into your next email, your social post. Even in your listing presentation just to be again the educator, the one with the data and the facts, so david yeah, i think this is a very interesting look. It's a new kind of you know dashboard.

If you will that the kcm research team built and we've been talking about a lot of these things, this combined showing time to apps to pending deals to inventory, just says: where are we now? If you go back to what we talked about during the summit, we talked about going through pent up demand over the summer and then settling into this market. Now here's the interesting thing we've settled in and we've settled in very well. Showings up year over year, 61.9 percent purchase applications up 22 percent pending deals up 24, so we're seeing each one of those leading indicators in real estate be very consistently up year over year. Driving you know uh volume and everything that we're seeing happen, existing home sales.

You see there uh up 10 and a half percent. The big one new home sales up here over here 43, a lot of demand out there for new homes. A lot of reasons for that and the challenges which you know we'll talk about a little bit later in the call is remains inventory. You know existing uh inventory down 39 and new home inventory down 33, so relative to our market relative to real estate.

We can say: hey we're doing very well in these leading indicators. Need more inventory, no doubt about that. Uh and i'll bring a quote in here: real quick uh. You know relative to real estate from mark fleming from first america.

He says i think it's sustainable, meaning uh the real estate market and may not grow as quickly as has in the recent months, which have sort of been a recovery phase from the spring. But there are some long run fundamental dynamics that are very positive for the growth of the housing market. So, as we look at housing, i think we can confidently say: we've seen a you know: v-shaped return, uh in our business, we're seeing some long-term. You know, dynamics that mode very well for housing, very, very good picture uh.

You know looking into next year so carlton. How long have you been in the business now, 18 years, residential all together to include commercial about 22, 23. right, so in johanna? What about 15 17 years 16, 17 years? So when you, when you hear that and you think about where we came from, especially like the dc marketplace right like when you go back to the dc marketplace, you think about 2007. 8.

9. 10. 11.. I mean it was i i hated.

I mean it was a bloodbath. There was a wild wild west here right, but foreclosures everywhere i mean it was just a mess when, when you see that v like do, you still have some of those old thoughts of seven. Eight, nine ten and if so, what advice do you have the people that, like hey man, you got to look to the future? That mark fleming is not saying it's going to be rosie, but he's not saying it's going to go down yeah, i'm pretty sure he knows that there may or may not be a new president. I'm pretty sure he knew that when he made that quote yeah.

I i think that i was just having this conversation yesterday with a really good friend of mine. That's on the commercial side in the in with uh government contracting and and they do a lot of stuff with gsa and and commercial funding and all that stuff and what they're seeing over there is slightly different or well. I can say really different from what we're seeing on the residential side, and i was trying to let him know that we don't have those same issues on the residential side that you guys are experiencing on the commercial side right now. You know so when i, when i think back to to 2008 2007, i don't really have in my marketplace too many people or even the the clients that i'm coaching in the in the northern virginia the baltimore area or even in the dc market.

That really look at that 2007 and really want to compare, because we have too much it's, not the history that they're concerned about it's the future that they're more so concerned about, and the market has shown us. If you look at um pre-pandemic and where the numbers were in pre-pandemic, when you were showing the first slide and what the numbers were and how we took the slight dip, but we quickly rebounded, i think they're focusing on the rebound and where we're going. Because foreclosures aren't really they're happening, they've never gone anywhere, but because of the forbearance and then and the and the moratorium, that's on them right now and things that's happening. That's not an issue, and i think also the overlays that have taken place within the linden industry is preventing a lot of that stuff from happening like it did before.

So i think the focus is more so on. How do we move forward? How do we get our sellers, our buyers, to see that vision, i'm having more conversations tom with my clients in regards to how to handle that objection, then how to work through or convince them that it's not going to happen. Yeah yeah, smart, smart! So i'm going to say joanna i'm going to save you. I want to jump back in the slides for a second time, because the next subject is the unemployment numbers that you know came out, uh so david.

Let's take control of the slides and let's talk about you know, what's the bls sand where, where are we going, it's clearly looks like it's slowing down. What do you see sure sure yeah? I think that is the question uh, let's hop in here and let's look at uh some of the numbers, just the literally the facts of where we stand, and let's talk about that for just a second. So this past friday, bureau of labor statistics released unemployment uh for september. You can see it there uh the last five five months, unemployment's dropped to where we sit at 7.9 percent uh today and to your point tom, not not as uh rapid, a drop is as what we've seen in maybe the prior few months, but nonetheless a drop Um, you know, i think, the i clipped a quick quote out of that report.

That says both measures have declined for five consecutive months, but we are higher than in february, if you wonder for context by 4.4 percentage points in unemployment in 6.8 million people respectively. So more people unemployed than february, obviously by percentage by my number there uh and want to see that continue to decrease. But i want to. I want to pause for one second, because there are.

There are two questions that come up as, as i generally talk to people about unemployment, the first one is um gosh. Are we in a good spot with unemployment? I'm not. You know suggesting that 7.9 is a good spot. We always say that if one person's out of work, we want them to get uh their job back.

We are seeing unemployment come down uh. I think the rate at which it continues to come down is in question. The important thing is there are no experts forecasting right now that unemployment's about to go up. That is point number one.

Okay, so david say that again say that again, there are no experts forecasting right now that unemployment's about to go up but david, but david the airlines are going to lay off all of their workers, and i mean right like like headline reading drama. You know clickbait like right. Is it true? It's not true. Like you talk to that's that, i said there are two questions that come up.

The first one is what's going to happen in the future. The second one is well hold on david united, just said: they're going to they're going to let go of 19 000 people or disney said they're, furloughing, 24, 000 people or so, and so i heard this okay, that's that's the truth. Okay, we need to understand that and we need to understand in the economy. Last month a million jobs net were added yeah, so 19 000 is a big number and i feel for those families, for those individuals for everybody affected and jobs are coming back.

Both of those things are true, so we we have to be informed and not to your point, follow that headline and go. Oh, my okay, if united's doing this or so and so is doing this, then you know there goes the the the entire situation, because it's just not true joanna. When you hear this, what you know what goes through your mind, i mean you got. You have two beautiful kids, you got a life, you got a business, you're coaching all these people.

What are you seeing? What are you feeling? Well, certainly you know i'm with david. I do it does break my heart that we have families that are that are losing jobs. I have a brother that is an airline commercial airline pilot. I certainly know the fear of oh, my gosh, you know.

Is he about to get furloughed, so my heart does go out um. I like the data, though, and when you look at the facts, that yes, we lost those jobs, it's unfortunate, but the job market is increasing over a million jobs. I i don't. You know i don't mean to always be the pollyanna, but i like to tap into that positive side and see that that there is growth.

Our economy is recovering. The job market is recovering, maybe not as fast as all of us would like to see, but it is recovering, and i think that that's what we need to hold on to yeah cb. You got thoughts on that before we talk about forbearance yeah, i i do because, yes granted, the facts are, the numbers are what they are, or the numbers are what's being reported is what it is we we can't do anything about that. We can look at the graph, then we can see that it went from 14.7 and it's down to roughly about eight percent right now.

So that is a decline in the numbers. But my concern being a consumer also being in this industry, is the number of people that are not filing for unemployment. That's my concern and who are those people that aren't fouling are those people that are not fouling? Do they fall in that service industry? With your restaurant workers and those people, if so, they really don't have a significant impact, my opinion, not the opinion of tom ferry, but they they don't really fall into the impact of purchasing houses because of their economic status. So i don't really focus on that.

I look at because we're in a bubble here in washington dc, the majority of our people are government employees which are pretty stable, but then we do have some private sector people here also and not too many of them are losing their jobs. Like i said, it's a lot of service industry, people, your waiters, your cooks, your restaurant owners, but a lot of those people aren't buying houses. So i don't think it really impacts us that much yeah. It's like it's like the tale of the two right, because on one side like hey, i feel for those people right and on the other side and and david kcm has shown multiple slides over and over again that a lot of that group and david, i don't Want to misquote it but they're like under 25 years old right, you know they're in the service industry, they weren't out buying houses.

So it's like it doesn't impact housing right, but our heart goes out to those kids right, so others in in obviously every age group that are in that situation. Yeah there's two facts in that. I want to mention real quick this this downturn, this pandemic has disproportionately affected those on the lower income scale and younger people. That's that those are the facts of that and kind of going back to the point that you made tom carlton you made as those people.

We know, based on data, aren't out looking for homes in a lot of cases purely based on age for the most part um, but uh, but but no doubt you know, people being impacted so so david. I like this next slide, because i again you got these people that are headline readers and everyone out. There knows what i'm talking about you, these people that come to you and they go. Oh, my god, the world's falling apart, it's the uh and they you know they're trying to wrap you up in their drama kind of carlton.

The way you were describing your friend who's in the commercial space. I talked to some commercial brokers and they're in their commercial world, saying i'm not leasing as much buildings aren't trading financing is harder, they're like, therefore everything must be horrible and i'm like dude, look at the residential space. It's on fire right now. It's the exact opposite.

So so we get that, but i like this slide david. This is one of those that it'd be interesting for everybody to post like on facebook, and then just say: what are your feelings about this? That's how i would ask you just to see how much chatter you could create like when you look at this. What are your feelings? What do you think give me your sense, we're all you know we're all friends go, but i'll really get why i think it's going to be a meaningful post yeah. This is the comparison you know of unemployment.

You can see here um, you know. Just a few months ago tom we were talking about how you know. People were saying this is going to be like the great depression or great recession, and this is the number of months unemployment's greater than or equal to nine percent. You see the great depression in 108 months.

That's a long time for unemployment to be above nine percent. Great recession, 30 months, you know, i mean that's it's even you know we lived through that in this business and i look at that. I go wow the 80s 19 months and some of the oil recessions today, four months we're nowhere near where we were back then - and i don't say that to minimize it but to to bring the facts as a comparison to show people. This is really where we stand now.

There are questions that have to be answered about the service-based economy, and you know, i don't think everybody tomorrow is going to get in a plane or go to a bowling alley or see a movie. I think there are some businesses that are you're going to be slower to return, but but, as we look at the overall macro us economy very, very different from uh, you know some of the high points that we were making comparisons to just a couple months ago. I have to say i'm just curious out there. I would love to know from everyone out there watching right now now or in the future.

Uh. You know give me like. Give me some feedback. Would you get on an airplane? Are you comfortable staying at a hotel right? Would you go to the movies my wife and son just went to the movies i live in california.

My friends, like you know it's, california, is one of those states, that's sort of leading in the everyone's in a mask, and it's not right. Like you know, i mean it's a little intense here so, but they were at a movie theater. I'm just curious like give us your feedback, would you go to a movie? Would you hop on an airplane like just just give us your sense and then david? Let's go into the forbearance just being mindful of time because sure again like it's, it's a positive sign, but it's still a lot sure. So i mean when we think it you know, of of the challenges we face right now: unemployment being one of those we've kind of talked through that the second is forbearance, and what we know is the number of mortgages that are in active forbearance is decreasing.

You know we topped out here you can see just under 5 million in this graph and now we're at 3.59, just under 3.6 million people in active forbearance. We've talked extensively about this and keeping current matters. I won't go into the depth of it, but we know there there are provisions for people that uh need to extend. We know people are coming out of it.

There is. There was an article published in the wall street journal about a week ago, suggesting there are people that may not know about forbearance, are in delinquency, uh and not in forbearance, and so i think it underscores the need of um of every one of us, everybody on The call to continue to get this message out there and that that message is hey. If, if you are in a situation that you you're struggling, maybe then to to make your mortgage payment reach out to your lender and find out what options they have available. If you are in a situation where you need to sell your home, let's get that home on the market.

Let's help families through this, but but it is uh. You know, as we look at the last several weeks, we're starting to see that number decline and i think we want to continue to see it decline. We want to continue to see people get the ability back to make their payment. There's probably people in there that likely hedged the future and said i don't know what the future is going to bring and okay.

Now i don't need it. I'm going to i'm going to come out of forbearance. There's there's a number of different uh. You know types of people in that, but i think when we look at unemployment, we look at forbearance.

We look at the coming election. People go okay, there's a lot going on right now and i'm concerned yeah um. When i, when i look at this - and i know you know so, for my friends out there watching we're gon na get back to our every two weeks, i think i'm gon na keep it on this wednesday. I kind of like this cadence of middle of the week, um david.

There was a slide. We showed what now feels like, maybe uh, four or five shows ago, that showed sort of this graph as it related to the foreclosures of seven eight nine, and it was really interesting to see the comparison because again we're going in the right direction. I know a lot of skeptics out, there will say yeah, but what about when this ends and what about when that ends and how is it going to work? And then i have other people that i say well, let's also look at the other argument. The other argument is how many people right now have basically just said: i'm gon na go no mortgage for the next three months.

I'm gon na take that money. I'm gon na put up my savings, i'm still making money, i'm just talking on the back end and i'm hoping and praying that they allow me just to do that. They don't ask for the money right. So it's my hallucination is.

If i had to look at the 3.59 million, the vast majority of people are in hardship, there's also a percentage of people that are just taking advantage of the opportunity and saving more cash right now. Right i mean i wish we had, you said: do you want the money now or later and they're taking later? You know right exactly, i mean hey, i'm gon na make my payment anyway, but i might as well take the cash yeah with me, and i've and shockingly i've heard that a lot more than people pretty open. Some people are actually rather like bragging about it. Like it's great man, i'm just pulling away cash right.

I'm like okay question mark right right, okay, so so, let's get into what i would say is the election, but we're really calling it inventory equity experts. What are they saying sure david everybody's? In the same, like we're in 11 years of a bull market in housing, sure right there's no way that this thing can sustain itself and yet every expert i talked to says: 2021, if you're busy now plan on this being your next. You know 14. 15.

16 months right and if you're not busy, now you need to call my office and say i need help right because it re, i mean joanna you with me on this, like it is the it is the super rich, meaning, very productive. It is the extremely rich like having arguably their best year of their career and it's people that are still trying to figure out. You know what crm they should get right. I mean it's like that's the deal i knew two coaches would laugh about that right.

That's the disparity, so i know for a lot of my friends. We want to continue to push you forward and make 2021 even better than it was this year, but this part is this is key right and it does relate to the election cycle so david. Take it away yeah, i think carlton joanna. This will be great to hear your perspective and what you know the agents you're coaching and talking to.

But this is i'm going to call this. You know the uh inventory, equity and expert kind of piece tommy. You brought that up, and this is in response to the people that say you know what i'm kind of concerned about. What's going on, we have the most contentious presidential election in our nation's history.

We've got high unemployment. We've got people in forbearance that that we've been, you know, told certainly to opt in to that when you can't make your mortgage payment and there are a lot of people in that boat and i'm not sure what 2021 is going to bring, and so you know I i think this looking at the facts in each one of these categories. Imagine if you were having that conversation with somebody to say, okay, let's look at it, is that even true relative to what we know about the market and i'm going to bring back in a couple of things here that you no doubt remember seeing back when we Started talking about this - and this is the inventory picture of you - know 2008 versus today, going all the way back to 99, actually and - and the reason i bring this up is - i think some of that fear originates in the memory of the housing crash and i Think it's very legitimate for consumers, because a lot of us, you know still remember that, and we have to very clearly articulate that in show visually this. This is a great job of it back in 2008, 2010, we're in a very different market in an over supply market which led to prices falling, and where do we sit today? I'll use my my mouse here to show you we're below where we were in inventory? In this country in 1999, we're in a significant drought relative to the available homes on the market, uh today, a very different market that is keeping upward pressure on prices going into next year.

So for the person that that says, you know i'm concerned that prices are going to fall after the election, and this is going to be the case. I i think we have to to educate them and show them. This is the reality of today's market. The the second piece to that is to educate them on the historic amount of home owner equity across the country, and this is the the slide from john burns.

Consulting you're, showing that 42 of the homes in this country, don't even have a mortgage on them, and if you play this thing all the way, around 90 percent of the homes have at least 10 percent equity that gives families and individuals that own homes today options Relative to their mortgage, if they're in a situation where they can't pay their payment and they can't uh stay in the home, they can sell the payment. Pay. A commission put some money in their pocket and provide for their family in 2008. That wasn't an option.

People couldn't do that where they were underwater or whatever the case may be, where they owed more on their home than it was worth, and they walked very different situation today. With regard to equity - and i bring this up to remind you to remind you - the fact that you may know this, but people out you know in the world buyers and sellers they - consumers that are thinking about transacting uh, you know home purchase, seller home, do do Whatever don't necessarily know this uh by and large, the third piece is as the expert piece and what are experts saying so you know the response and tom you always handle this well of you know, okay, i appreciate that you feel this way and you feel like Prices are going to fall in the next 12 months, oh by the way where, where did you get that information? Because every expert that we're looking at here is saying you know, uh prices are going to appreciate somewhere between three and four percent. Now there are some outliers there. Hawes is one that says we're going to lose value in the next 12 months.

I frankly don't agree with them. I don't think they're right, but i do leave that on there because it's that's what they're saying corelogic's come up and i expect them to revise that estimate. But by and large uh we're seeing uh some some pretty. You know good appreciation in the coming 12 months.

Ivy zellman saying close to six percent appreciation in the next 12 months and and we've certainly seen uh uh. You know white hot appreciation over the last 12 months, driven by interest rates driven by demand driven by low supply. All the things we we know, and the last piece that i'll bring here is exactly what you brought up carlton. This is a very different situation from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.

Lending standards standards have been fairly solid over the last decade and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes and they will be able to restructure their loans if they're employed uh and i would add, to that they'll - be able to sell their homes uh if They need to so a different situation out there today with regard to some of the fears that are uh that are in the market, which i just think you know calls us to what our job is right now and educating people. So i wan na i wan na i'm gon na go to my coaches, so johanna you're going first, but i wan na stress to everybody right now this. This is your next direct mail postcard to your geographic farm. This is your next direct mail, email, social post.

You can do an entire video about this right. This is a very, very telling piece right and then, when you back it with this one and say i know you're concerned about the election, i know you're concerned about the economy. So am i, and yet all of these people are all saying it's going to go up. Do you think that they're also paying attention to? I think it's pretty safe, to say my friends? Housing is a really good thing right now right and it's going to continue to be, but i i got a thought before i turn it back into my coaches.

I think every one of you watching right now should do a blind survey. Monkey email to every person in your database and just say um what percentage of equity to you know to your loan amount? Do you have you know? Do you owe less than 10 less than 20 up the all the way down blind, no names? Let them know no names that you're just looking to see how all the people that you know compared to the national average, then i would do a side by side. You know here's the national average and here's everyone that i know. I think that would be a fascinating, interesting piece that would probably get picked up by your local news as well, because it's really interesting so a blind survey monkey to everybody.

You know trying to get this data by the way. That's it. That would be a very interesting email, social post to get the word out, but it'd be a killer piece making you again the educator, but i want to go back to johanna first jana when you see all of these slides. What goes through your mind, what advice do you have for your clients when you see all of this? Well, i think it's all positive news and should help eliminate any fears that people are feeling um.

I've got a couple thoughts around it number one. What an amazing opportunity agents are in right now to truly become that knowledge broker. I really believe that it is our. We have two responsibilities, it is your responsibility and i am not an analytical, so the the fact that i can get excited about this data in numbers um, i think, should say a whole lot.

If you know me um so, but i do think it's our our obligation as real estate professionals to know this data and understand this data and number two to use it to educate your clients if you're, not using this data, to educate your clients, you're kind of Missing the boat right now is what i believe tom you might agree with me is the single best time we've ever had to really become that trusted advisor and counselor um. Listen to their fears, be able to say tell me more about that understand where their fear is coming from and say i hear you and i want to show you a different perspective. This is what the national data is saying, so um yeah. I think it's our obligation.

I also believe it's your obligation to as an agent to not only know the national data, but you need to know what's going on in your local market and and help your consumer see, do a layover um. This is what the national data shows. This is what our our local area data shows and really help. Um eliminate those fears that a lot of buyers and sellers are having right now, yeah, i i agree, carlton same question johanna.

I think that's great. I i think, also within it in that time, the key piece that i think we that i think the consumer is is is probably latched on to and what the agent or the broker is really missing. Is the history that's attached to it, and people have a tendency to hold on to the history? Okay, so if they're holding on to the history and they're looking at this graph and they're, seeing from you know the the in 2008 2010, how things were they're a little bit more apprehensive now to make those types of moves that people made back then because they Have someone in their family in their community in their neighborhood that they go to church with whatever the case may be, that lost their properties during those particular time frames, so they're a little bit more reluctant to be as aggressive and move forward and do some of Those irresponsible things that were done previously now the home equity piece. I really love the home equity piece because it speaks volumes to the lessons learned from the previous history.

People are not doing those things anymore so because people aren't doing those things, there's absolutely no way that we're going to have the same results that we had before bank overlays lending lending things. Everything is different. Now everything is different. So when i hear people - and i hate to say this, but i'm going to say it because you know i'm a straight shooter when i when i look at the presidential debate - and i hear comments like we're in a k-shaped right - i'm like what the hell are.

You talking about you know we're we're not in a case shape. What are you doing? What are you saying you know, and i think people latch a hole to that, because the information is wrong. The information is wrong, so many people have equities in their in their homes now and they're, not using that home as an atm to take vacations to buy cars and things of that nature or to do renovations they're holding off if they want to do the renovations They're not doing a a line of credit or or or a home equity line to do it they're using the cash that they have to do them. So i love the fact that people have equity, which makes it even more powerful to say to that seller.

If you are interested in selling your property, look at the value that you have in the house, home values aren't declining home, values are going up, so we need to educate our clients on how to effectively have that conversation with their clients and within their community. Tristan get over really fast right, so so right when you said k-shape carlton tristan goes: oh right! Okay, you and steph buy your house how long ago, uh november, 8th last year, okay, so november, 8th last year, they're like we're doing to be honest here right. We're live, yeah uh when all when the pandemic started and all this stuff. Do you remember you came into me? Do you remember what you said? I said uh, oh, we might be in danger of losing the house because she got uh.

She lost her job a week before the shutdown yeah yeah, and, and do you think, it's safe to say that probably most people were in that same kind of i mean if that happened right most people would be in that same emotional state yeah. You don't have to use the exact words that i said, but what did i say to you said: shut up. There was a little more in that, and staff got another job about two months later she got a new job, a better position, actually a better job. Big shout out to loandepot my friends over there right and now she's, making even more money, you're making even more money.

You just refinanced your house again for the second time yeah for the second time. What did you do with the extra cash uh we're still paying? The same amount that we were before so yeah right there, like i said every one of you needs to they're watching right now, you need to grab tell them how old you are 32. boy that took you. You need to grab every 28 year old, 32 year old, 35 year old because he didn't know, but i'm like dude you're, not going to lose your house right like come on.

I want you, i i'm so excited to actually like say what i was, but but you get the point right and then he's like reef. I'm like dude take that extra cash and just keep making the payments, because then he's gon na pay his house off in 15 years or in his case, all agents in orange county pay. Attention he's going to sell this place or keep it as a rental and then go buy a four bedroom five bath with a pool at the pool. Yeah.

Yes right, my friends this! This is your next seller right everybody's having those shaky, uncertain moments like when you, when you see all these slides. What do you think uh we're not we're we're not in as much trouble as we thought we would be yeah and now that we're paying that same amount, it's going to be easier to get it's going to be easier for us to maintain this place. Even when we buy our new home yeah, so that's that's something i'm excited about. I'm excited when i see these slides totally totally all right, hey.

This is your consumer. Ladies and gentlemen, all right love you buddy, get over there all right all right, so i just wanted to bring in another perspective for people that are watching like you know, tristan, and i talk about this stuff all the time all the time. So let's talk about the obstacle david yeah, i mean there. There is an obstacle.

I think that is in you know in our business and could be the thing that holds us back uh going into next year. I would offer um, you know. We've we've talked about this a lot i'll share, uh the image here, um that that we've used - and that is it's listings. It's uh, you know the the lack of listings across the country and i know carlton joanna.

You guys are going to be bringing great context into this, but you know we we've joked about this being the story of toilet paper. The storekeeper can't get it on the shelf fast enough before somebody comes in and buys it or buys it even faster than it gets on the the shelf, and so we still see a historically low uh amount of listings across the country and - and i think, bringing In the local data, like you mentioned joanna's critically important in this area, but i want to give you a way to to look at this relative to existing home sales and new home sales and explain that and - and this shows sales you know month over month - being Up 10.5, yet listings are down 39 in existing homes, so creating that delta. If you will uh of need and and lack of inventory, new home sales like we talked about on the front end of this up, 43 and yet listings are down 33. So we have more people buying in both categories and we have less people, you know putting homes on the market providing uh.

You know this opportunity this this this perfect storm. If you will of the thing that could hold the recovery of real estate back - and i think that is you know, the job that we have today is to go out and say: okay, where are those listings? How do we bring those back to market and uh and - and you know, help our business grow forward, johanna carlton, how how often uh in a normal week of coaching, do you hear what is everyone else doing to get listings? I feel like nearly every call. Yes, every call i've had four calls this morning and that has been the topic of discussion around every single call that i've had today so far and yesterday and the day before that and the day before that and the months before that, and then yes before that. So so what advice do you have for the people out there? I, i know what i say, but i'm just trying to hear from the two of you to see.

You know how in sync we are joanna. So so i'm your client. What do i need to do to get more listings? Well, first of all, we need to look at history and what traditionally is your strongest lead pillar? Let's go back to what has worked in the past, always always always once we do that, then, let's start thinking outside of the box. Let's go knock on doors, go target the neighborhoods, where your clients are actually uh wanting to buy in use.

This information use all this wonderful, strong data that david's put together for us to show homeowners, hey, there's a lot of opportunity for you right now, using the equity in your home to go, buy that vacation property. You've always wanted i'll, send them down to florida to carlton, and he can he can sell them that second home, that they turn into an airbnb um, but but always always always go back to what's worked in the past. I don't think that that's really changed um and then you start looking outside of the box. Go back to expires that didn't sell 12 months 18 months ago, scrub that list go to them.

Now, with this dad and say hey, i know you've heard some crazy stuff out there, but did you know that you have x percentage of equity in your home now might really be the time to cash out. I'm so glad you didn't sell back then, because the opportunity now is is much greater. No doubt, cb same same question: what advice do you give or you could say, ditto if it's the same and we'll go down? It's pretty. It's pretty much.

The same thing. Um! Go back to what was working um, i'm telling a lot of people take a look at the 33 listing ideas that you gave a couple of years ago at the summit. Take a look at that because those things still work take a look at at some of the the newer things that are out there like your up nest and your offers and all of those particular websites that are going to help you get the listings. However, what i'm also telling them is alton you're freezing out there.

Are we good okay? So i'm also up for a second okay? Okay, so i'm also i'm also telling them that if you are, if you're lucky enough to get the upness or the offers appointments don't be afraid to rebate the listing. I hate the word discount: i'm going to use the word rebate, rebate the listing, but also know that if you rebate that listing you're going to have to do the prospecting around that listing to get additional listings so use it as a catapult to help. You get other listings in a community that you may not have been in in the first place. I think a lot of the the farms and things that our clients, don't prospect, are the ones that are given to them organically.

And what do i mean by that? One listing maybe 10 or 15 offers on that property. That's an organic farm being given to you, because everybody wants to live there, but they don't go and prospect in that community to get those listings. So you got to do the grassroots stuff. If that means, if that means door, hangers flyers, old school prospecting phone calls, you got to do the things that actually work and work for you, johanna, and i would just add you know going back to the basics.

There is one foundational principle of our business and it comes down to how many conversations are you having? If you don't have enough buyers, you don't have enough sellers you just i don't care who you talk to go, have more conversations be out in your community if you're a secret agent right now - and nobody knows - you exist, they're not going to be calling you to List their homes so be out, there have the conversations period. I literally just said that to the last client that i was on with before i got on here that she is a secret agent. She moves under the cover of darkness. No one in her neighborhood knows what she does yeah.

That is such a great i mean that's my dad used to say that, like 25 years ago, stopped from right it it makes me laugh so hard every time i think about it. So so david, you got one last slide and then we're going to everybody bounce, but i do want to cover uh. Somebody asked a question, and, and so all of you i'd like some insight on this because hey look, i know right now in the u.s jill biggs, my client hoboken new jersey. She has more listings right now than she's ever had in her life and she's selling 20 properties a month if she typically in a typical market, hoboken manhattan, vertical living, condo high rise, it is different, my friends, it is different, we're seeing longer times on the market.

We're seeing some unrealistic sellers that aren't paying attention to the fact that there's 15 more units, just like theirs on the market at a similar price and the advice is very simple for the person that asks that question.