What's up everybody on facebook, welcome back to this week in housing, it's december 3rd. Can you believe it's december 2020.? I don't know about all of you, but if you're watching and you're in the u.s uh there was a lot of fascinating beautiful conversation around gratitude. Just a few weeks back for thanksgiving and it was interesting to watch you know a 19 year old, a 21 year old, my kids, my 93 year old mother-in-law, one of my closest friends on the planet, who's a great agent team leader from melbourne florida. We were all talking about resiliency, we were talking about perseverance, we were all acknowledging the hardship, we've all gone through and the extraordinary triumph.

So many of us have achieved, and it really got me thinking as i was you know, preparing for today's show and we've got an unbelievable show for everybody. Today we have two really important topics: we're obviously going to talk about home prices, which we know if you just if you're paying attention and you're reading any newspaper. Everything is going like this, but i think the real hot topic we're going to discuss is the projections for 2021 you're gon na be the first to hear from the team at kcm. What are the projections for 2021? So you can start framing your mindset, your marketing, your attitude, your business, your prospecting, your communications, to make sure that you're on point in 2021 and just a heads up a little teaser in two weeks, we're gon na do a show where we actually say: here's everything.

We said was going to happen in march and april and may and june july and dave, and i are going to go back and forth and say: were we right or were we wrong so make sure you mark that in your calendar for two weeks from today, So the the note that i wrote down is if knowledge equals confidence, if knowledge equals confidence and ignorance equals fear right, stopping us from taking action, then today's show, if you just pay attention, i just wrote down housing data is the superpower if, if knowledge, equals confidence, Housing data and understanding where the industry is going and what's going to happen with home prices and what buyers and sellers are going to be thinking about and what you need to know. That's what we're covering today and that's a superpower so to help us do it. I'm looking at my all-star panel, of course i've got uh to my right. I don't know how you guys are seeing it david manser, long-time friend, 30 years in the mortgage industry, ran a region for wells fargo and today finds himself coaching 50 of the top.

Like best people in our company um, i see becky garcia from phoenix arizona, running a killer, brokerage and team about 400 transactions. This year she loves being on video right, becky, um yeah sure, but, as i was sitting with her coach last night, we both said the same thing. She is brilliant, so we want her perspective same thing with lisa chanati, right lisa's from the boston area. We'll do 664 transactions this year.

Four years in with this team is an absolute rocket ship. If you saw the podcast that we did together, it's been blowing up, so a lot of people are enjoying that and of course, david childers from keeping current matters. So, ladies and gentlemen, let's jump right into how's. The market david talk to us and then these three rock stars are going to give us their perspective.

Yeah, it's uh, you know tom. You mentioned it's december, you know uh and gosh. I think we're all ready to get this year behind us and start next year, and you know as as we look at this, and you mentioned what we're going to do next week. There is a way to know what's happening and look at what experts are saying and formulate insights.

That way i mean i i was watching your instagram live earlier and and the insight that we can use the data that we can use to be the knowledge broker is what we're talking about, and you know, there's probably not a you know hotter topic. I would argue uh right now, and certainly the folks that that i'm talking to and that we hear from uh keeping current matters on the topic of price. You know and the and you know the way prices are going up. So what i want to do is i want to give you a little bit of of uh.

You know insight a little bit of data and and information around prices, and i know you know lisa becky david, you guys are gon na, have great insight on that. From a coach's perspective and uh in you know what what that means right now, but let me give you a couple of things here that our research team has uh has come up with. Do such a great great job of finding these insights. This first uh quote, is from craig lozara uh talking about the case-shiller uh report that just came out.

He says housing prices were notably, and i am tempted to say, very strong in september. I think we know that the national composite index gained seven percent relative to its level a year ago. Our three-month reading since june of this year have all shown accelerated growth in home prices and september's results are quite strong, so seeing home price appreciation uh, you know very strong right now and and we're going to talk about why that is and a lot of people You know asking the question you know is: are homes appreciating too fast right now, you know, is this market too hot uh and you know reminiscent of fears of uh. You know the last time we were here, and so you know if we start to take a look at that question and we go back in time.

We can see looking back that annual house price appreciation. We go all the way back to 1991. It's about 3.8 percent and if we look at just a shorter term window back to 2012, just over 6 percent um yearly price appreciation. Now, why is this important when we start to look at that question, seven percent we can see gosh that's considerably higher than we.

We go back uh, you know back to the early 90s, but when we look more recently, not quite as high but still even over that and to give you a little perspective there, what our team went back and did is is looked at uh, going all the Way back to 2000, if we take that annual historic appreciation rate of 3.8 percent, this is how that plays out. On the you know, average home price going back to you, know taking a 140 000 home uh advance it 20 years and that's you know almost 280 000. If you take that that compounding appreciation - and so what we did at that point, is we then went back and overlaid actual appreciation each year, and it looks like this you can see. We have this run up in the early 2000s before uh the housing crash and then going through a time of depreciation, which we all remember in our business and and there you see it from 2012, like we talked about, you know, coming out of uh the housing Crisis of uh, you know 2008 and where we stand today in actual appreciation, is slightly ahead of where we would be if we applied that historic model.

Why is that important? Because david hold on, i got ta ask so so becky, i'm gon na go to you. First and lisa, how often are you guys hearing today from your sales agents from buyers? You guys are working with that they're getting concerned that they're being outpriced in the market that you know home price appreciation is going too high. Are you guys hearing people saying we're going to wait until the market softens like give us some insight like becky? What are you hearing in the phoenix marketplace? Well, when it comes from the agents, their concern is whether or not it's going to you know. What point is going to, you know, start decreasing uh locally here in phoenix.

We just don't see any sign of a slow down anytime soon we list something: that's getting multiple offers they're paying above list price they're, paying a pub above appraisal. You know price, there's! No more okay! Well, let's pay a higher price, and you know we're before consumer would say: okay, let's go ahead and pay and then we'll renegotiate during the appraisal, there's no more in renegotiating during the appraisal, because buyers are agreeing to pay above the appraised value. In some situations now so builders are slowing down their production because they can't keep up so um we're just not seeing that much concern like the okay i'll wait to the market softens because they're just i mean, there's just no end in sight here locally for the Consumers to really have that as a consideration right now, we're not seeing that the agents are questioning but not their clients. Their clients are willing to do what it takes to get a house right now.

Yeah interesting, lisa, same question: what are you hearing from both your agents and customers? I think we're a lot like becky. It definitely comes up every so often, but you know compared to the volume that we're doing it's not a an undercurrent of everything that's going on, and i think the biggest thing is that the need for housing is huge. It's not like it's a a second mark, a second purchase right, we're looking at consumers who actually need to make a purchase to have stable housing going forward, and i think that that's what's going to kind of keep it continuing even throughout we're. Looking at january, where we put deals under and when they close our january, is already on the books for double what we did in january of 2019.

and january and february are historically our lowest months. So seeing that already, as we just hit, what we're putting under contract for january closings that we're double what we did last year, i don't think the consumers are very worried about it and for context uh lisa chanati. What's your average sales price, it's about 375. 000.

We are a meat and potatoes purchase, it's not luxury, it's not it's. Like. I just said it's not second home. These are.

It fills the need, yeah becky, how about yourself in greater phoenix metro? Yeah? Ours is 2-8. Our average, our team's average sales price, is 285. um. The other point to that too, is also the interest rates are so low right now that, even if you know they're waiting for their, you know if there was a concern about market softening, their concern is: will the interest they're more concerned about the interest rate going Up than you know, cashing it on the low interest rate.

Now then, whether or not the you know waiting for the market to soften so david manser with 30 years in the industry - and you know a lot of those decades on the mortgage side managing running a region, you know being an originator and everything else now, you're Coaching 50 of the most successful clients we have you know are these. Ladies right, i mean are these? Are these concerns more in the agents minds, or is it more in the customers minds and if so, what are you saying to the agents to get them out of the way and helping people yeah? So my focus right now is just trying to help them. Be the better them in the moment right now and understanding that and david can attest to this, like the banks, even if, because what i'm hearing is well, there's going to be foreclosures, there's going to be this and that i'm going to wait, the banks aren't going To cut these properties loose for less than market value, so those days of the deals for the foreclosures is over, so it is definitely in the agent's mind, so it's scripting, it's the assumptive assertive language to help their clients understand the benefits of buying. Now, like becky said, affordability has never been better, you know so yeah, so just trying to help them be better them.

It's and we're. Seeing that the clients, the the customers, are actually moving forward and willing to write those offers above uh asking price put in the escalation clause in case they get outbid. So it's a really unique time right now, but it's they're still winning so they're, still winning so yeah. So so before i turn over to david childers i'll share with everybody.

I've been making the statement for the last 45 days that the 2021 spring selling market started in october of 2020 that, just like, we heard from lisa gennady everyone i'm talking to in the minnesota chicago the midwest. The colder regents are all saying the same thing. My january is bonkers right and that's because they're doing the right work, so i want to acknowledge everybody here for doing the right stuff. So so david childers take us back into the slides, because i'm looking at that next slide about inventory and home prices 2010 to today, yeah.

I think this is one of those slides that people need to take a snapshot of right and post and maybe do a video about and start sharing their insights like to see the disparity between what's going on yeah. I think this coming out of that last picture. Where we showed the appreciation we show where we're at now, the question is: okay. What's the logical reason, why we're there across the country - and i think you know, alicia and becky - you hit the nail on the head? Sometimes we have to remind ourselves of where, where we're at in this image really tells a story and tom, it's a great point of a place to to grab it right now, as always, you can go get all these slides, uh and - and i know it'll - be Posted in the comments there, but you know, as supply has gone down.

Price has continually gone up. You know it's an economics issue right now and uh in the lack of supply. The lack of uh, available uh homes on the market has driven the price up and when you look at this going back to 2010, it makes a lot of sense. You know uh and uh and tells a story of what's happening across the country relative to price and inventory.

So now no, i know we've got a slide from lawrence yoon coming up and - and i appreciate his quote - but there is so many people i mean. I read this morning on inman, you know five ways to start getting your reo accounts right right and now, of course, we know, that's sensationalizing. We know that's headlines that are trying to create fear, trying to get people to click, so they get another eyeball on their website and i'm not i'm not knocking them in men or any of the media outlets. But you know i look at even what lawrence you're saying show the next slide, give it a quote, and let's let's talk about it like if we're talking it's similar to 2006, everyone knows what happened in two thousand: seven: eight: nine yeah yeah.

You know i i think right now, i want to say one thing before i show that quote: um, you know tom, you talked about what we're gon na do in two weeks, talk about what we said and what actually happened. This is an area right now, where i believe we can lead and we can go out and talk about this because you're starting to see news stories come out going. Maybe this foreclosure deal is not going to happen. Maybe this is not going to be a big deal and i think we can be the the leader right now in this message.

He says this: such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions of a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer there is no comparison back in 2006, dubious adjustable rate mortgages taxed many buyers budgets, some loans didn't even require income documentation and today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed rate mortgages, whereas 14 years ago there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale and home builders Were putting up 2 million new units annually right now, inventory is about 1.5 million homes across the country, and home builders are under producing relative to historical averages. So as we see these numbers and people go hey, this is this feels like before we have to go back to the to the truth and the data and the information and say: okay, things are dramatically different today than they were back. Then david manzier insights on this mind, 100.

Well, i'm just flashing back to that time period and you know without mentioning any company names. You know. We know what happened back then and we know that it was limited documentation required these poor people were getting houses. There was no reason for them to be.

You know getting these loans approved. That was the bubble. I don't believe it was the prices of the homes that created the bubble. I think it was the way the mortgage industry was qualifying borrowers that created that that this disaster uh one thing i will i wanted to share real quickly is too is for the agents.

The appraisals are not coming in low. The appraisals are not coming in low they're coming in at market value, so you want to make sure that you understand that up front, because i've had that comment quite a few times like no, the appraisals are coming in my wife's, an appraiser she's, and she has No issues with reviews values are dialed in so just want to reassure everybody. It's coming in at market. The competitive nature of this environment is: what's creating.

You know the the financing issues, possibly so that was. I just want to throw that in there, because that's that's important mindset that they're coming out of market value, yeah, becky and lisa. Whoever wants to go first. How are you helping your agents frame, the conversation with buyers, so they understand how to win in this environment? Go ahead, lisa we're talking a lot about um.

You know understanding that again we're a meat and potatoes purchase right and understanding kind of what david just said. The differences between what created the problems back in 2006 aren't necessarily there right now and that, with interest rates being so low, we're focusing on the affordability more than the pricing right and if the payment is affordable. My favorite line to use with buyers and to have our team use is at what price? Would you not be regretful if somebody else was willing to pay that price right or the reverse? If you saw that somebody paid x, when would you have said to me, i would have paid x because then we need to be at x right and it it's putting the control back into the into the consumer's hand and finding their their comfort level with everything. I would agree and becky - i want your insight and there's so much of this today is about the monthly payment right and recognizing the buying power, as david we've been talking about for months, as we've now had what 14 times this year today was the most recent Yeah, it was today 15 now no no.

Last week the last rate was 13. Today was 14, we dropped 10 uh basis points in the average 30 year, fixed yeah, so becky you're in phoenix. There's no question anybody who's paying attention. You know 7.

8. 9. 10. There's not many markets that got hammered the way your market got hammered.

So what are you saying to your clients to make sure that they're positioning themselves the right way, your agents making sure they're doing it and and and how are you squashing any fears around this yeah? So one of the first questions i like to ask what it's let's say: first time: buyer is what do they know about the buying process? So that way i can kind of have an idea of where we're starting from um. So i like to get an idea or if they know like oh i'm, a first-time buyer, i don't really know or they'll kind of fill in the gaps. Let me know but they're they know quite a bit. They.

Today's buyers really know they do a lot of research before they even get sometimes to talking to us um, which we haven't. We didn't see, you know 10 years ago. You know when some of this was going on so uh yeah. So i always like to ask them: what do you know about? You know the buying process and um and sometimes they'll say.

Oh, my sister bought a house when she bought a house, she was able to negotiate and able to get. You know a really good deal on a home and that's what i'm looking for. So i just have to set the expectation up front and it's very easy to do, because you can pull data all of our mls. We can pull data and say: okay, let's go ahead and look in that area that you're looking at.

Let's pull the data of all the closed sales over, let's say the past 30 days or so how 30 60 days whatever works for you and pull it. We can show them. This is the list price, and this is the actual sold price and the sold price is going to be higher than that list price so that they can see in black and white. I'm not just telling them something that i'm pulling out of air.

We have the data that we can show them to show. Okay, you have to you're going to be paying at least a list price, if not more and here's. Why just kind of explaining to the multiple offers and what's going on and some of the different terms that you know our clients are doing in order to get their offer accepted and as long as you can they can trust you and you know, let's say it Comes a referral they're all automatically going to trust you, but um reviews or, however it is they come to us as long as we build that trust and we can show them the data behind what we're saying. Then it just makes a lot easier.

If you don't have that conversation up front, then they're going to not only get aggravated with the process, they're going to get irritated with the process and they're not going to trust you, because you didn't give them the information that they needed to know in order to Get their offer accepted yeah, i think that's such for you know, for both of you. Ladies such important distinctions for all of us as you're thinking about you know, maybe how you're retooling your buyer consultations right as you're retooling, your buyer compensations to really frame it. The right way for your customers to set the right expectations so great insights, ladies um, so i know that the real sort of - dare i say, buzzworthy, not thinking you know imminent in the media and all that kind of stuff, but david you and i have been Chatting about this like do. We share the 2021 projections now or do we wait for two weeks and i said, let's give it to him: let's get people as prepared as possible for what's to come, so i know we've got a lot of data to cover a lot of quotes to cover.

So for all my friends out there watching by the way, if you haven't tagged a friend or two who needs to up their market knowledge or maybe increase their confidence about the business, now, would be a really good time to maybe tag your broker manager. Your best friend an agent buddy of yours, so they get access to this information. So david, i'm going to turn over to you. Let's talk 2021 projections.

Yeah yeah, the research team at kcm has been working hard on what are experts saying about next year and i'm going to offer a couple of things we want to look for, and i think a lot of us as consumers and, as you know, folks, looking to The future we're looking for certainty. You know we talked about this a couple weeks ago. There's a cost for certainty, and you know right now: uh in the in the market, there's some advantage. Um, you know to to uncertainty from a buying perspective.

Cost is going to go up next year and we're going to see you know, affordability uh, you know being eaten into um and i think the other other word, i would say, is normalcy. We're looking for some normalcy in the market in in you know in life. In general, so i pulled a few things: uh to start this off from experts and and let's start here with jed kolko chief economist and indeed understands our business, but he says this above all. The 2021 outlook hinges on the course of the coronavirus.

Both the recent virus surge and the election make government emergency reef more likely talking about stimulus there and next year will also start to show whether two of the big big pandemic shifts will endure the one from services to goods and from in office to remote work. Even small shifts in these trends, if permanent, could cause big changes in how business is higher, how job seekers search and where people live and how much they earn. What he's saying there is there are questions still to be answered, even as recently as yesterday in the wall street journal. They were talking, you know, hey by mid-year, the you know the vaccine could be out and you know the majority of population could be vaccinated and i think there's you know different people saying when that's going to happen.

You know tom had the pleasure a few weeks ago being on uh a webinar with boomtown with greer allen, the ceo of boomtown, and he was talking about the employment issue, and you know what i think we we came into this thinking. You know either people are going to still work from the office or they're going to work from home. There's likely some hybrid. You know models in the middle there, but but but but what's the important thing right now, is there a lot of people that don't know, and my point is as uh.

You know we roll into next year and things become more clear. We start to get more good news. We start to get more certainty and people do know it's likely to cause people to make different decisions right. If i know that i don't have to be, maybe in my office every day i may move further out and we're certainly seeing people do that, and so uncertainty right now is something that may be holding people back now.

I think our job also is to create that certainty. So, as we start to look at mortgage rates, we talked about that earlier hold on hold on. I want to get. I want to get our experts opinion here.

I i'm going to go and make a statement. I just told to the top teams in the country both happen to reside in california, that they should plan on. No one is going back to work in any traditional sense throughout all of 2021. That's my projection.

If you live on the east coast or the west coast, or some spots in the middle, and it's not not a political statement, just there's just no chance that there so what's going to happen is exactly in my opinion would happen. In 2020, people are going to say knowing what i know now. What type of home do i need, and where do i want to live yeah right and i think it's going to be warm states. I think it's continuing to be water.

I think it's continuing to be mountains. It's going to be proximity. I think all of this is shifting and i don't see any sign of it coming back until maybe 2022. If the vaccine is in place - and i know becky's lining right up to be the first to take the vaccine - i'm kidding becky so becky.

What do you think? As i say that i mean look at the phoenix marketplace i mean? Does anybody? Is anybody living in phoenix actually from arizona right now we have so i am i'm very i'm one of the rare ones you'll find but um. We are getting a lot of people that are relocating here from like seattle, california, new york, new jersey, there. What they're doing is they are cashing out on their homes and their equity that they have there, because their employers have told them. You can now work from home permanently in some situations, so they're, saying: okay, i can have a better lower cost of living, a better quality of life and sell this house for a million dollars and buy something very similar for 400 000 in phoenix arizona.

So um, that's what we see a lot of the relocation going on um here is you know, that's what they're doing they're just taking, and not only that, but also people that are local, where we got away from some of the larger homes and the mcmansions that They were calling them and now we're seeing a trend going back to some of that because they want the home office. They want the home gym, they want, you know the swimming pool, they want. You know the bigger yards, so they have. You know their outdoor activities like we're getting a lot of um those larger purchase homes that we weren't, seeing for a long time yeah.

So i want to know in the comments out there, everybody watching. What is your prediction around 2021? Do you think it's gon na? Be everybody's just gon na go back to to work and we're gon na be inside the office, or do you think again that maybe what i'm saying might just play out all the way through into 2022? I want to know your comments lisa. What do you think? As we say all this i mean you know you're you're, closer to the boston metro, even though you're you're outside of the city, but you do business in and outside of the city. You know there's a lot of people talking everyone's leaving new york, everyone's leaving, california, everyone's leaving the new englands, and my response is: if that was the case, then why is there no inventory yeah? So you know it's interesting.

I was reading some data, not in mls but actually from moving companies, and some of the data that the moving companies were putting out is that the number of moves that they are doing are up. The really interesting part from my perspective is that the percentage of moves that were still happening within boston, proper, zip codes was actually the same, so the number of moves was up, but the percentage the ratio of moves still happening within those urban markets were was dead. On so there is some migration west, but there's still people who value the city in terms of the work space. I think you're right on one hand, but i think we're going to find kind of where i am that there's going to be some generational aspects to it.

And i think that there are some generations that are missing, that workplace culture and that sense of normalcy. And so my my guts as we end up over here in a very hybrid model where some are working fully home companies are going to downsize their office space and maybe go into a you know shared situation where it's maybe two days a weekend. One day a weekend yeah, what have you um, but in terms of also in buying? I think one of the the big things that i don't think we talk about enough is that there are some amazing deals to be had for people who are willing to buy investment properties in those urban markets where people are leaving. We know it's going to come back right, so, if you're willing to buy there's some zip codes in boston, where we're at 2016 prices, you buy at a 2016 price, hold it for a year or two.

What does that asset do? In 2023, 100 100 percent, david manser talk to us uh, just real, quick uh. You know with what becky and lisa are both talking about. It ties into the business plan for 2021 agent-to-agent referrals, my friends so agent agent referrals, should definitely be a part of your business plan for 2021.. What a great up two great agents right here - uh! Hopefully they don't their emails, don't blow up.

But it's just you know. It's super super critical that we share this data all across the tom ferry network, so just want to throw my two cents. Lisa has closed uh listed a home for one of my referrals and did an excellent job. Yes, yes, hey! You know so, for all of you know right so was it uh 2019 of 2018, when we surveyed our clients.

The number four listing attraction strategy amongst our clients was agent-to-agent referrals right number four. So obviously this network understands the power of that. So david take us back to mortgage rates. I know that's where we were bouncing and then i'm looking at the next one from uh from danielle hale and i'm, i think, we're.

I think some people are going to be shocked here yeah. So, let's look at this real, quick uh. This is a great um. You know visual picture of mortgage rates and where they're projected to to go forward based on what freddie mac is saying now you know if we look for the the punch line, there is mortgage rates staying around three percent on average through the you know, the end Of next year is, is the forecast.

Now you know whether we go. You know two, seven, two, eight two, nine three, three one. Whatever the bigger picture is, let's look back to you, know 17, 18, 19 and where we are today, the ability to go out and and secure in financing at a low rate is going to be around next year. You know, we always say whatever you buy.

You know today, whatever you buy next year in 10 years, you'll be bragging about uh and i think we're going to have that that opportunity relative to what's being forecasted uh in interest rates going into next year. So something uh, something key to remember david. Actually, i'm gon na go to the ladies: do you think it's too brash to put out on social or in some form of marketing uh, whatever you buy today, you'll brag about your interest rate for the next 20 years um? No, i think you could do that for sure. I have clients that do that, although they'll say oh well, i have a you know not new, not so much anymore, but before.

Oh you can't. I can't get the interest rate that i got before so yeah. We would have we have clients that do that themselves, yeah lisa. What do you think i mean should agents? Should your agents be talking about? I mean these are his.

We just had today the 14th historic low interest rate this year. Yeah. I think all of our agents should be sharing it right. I don't know that the consumers are as educated as the agents, so the more that we can put out and the knowledge broker on so many different levels right and it's not necessarily bragging yeah.

It's education, david uh, david childers, remind me it's 42.1 percent of all homes in the us, have no mortgage correct and then of the balance. So let's say 138 million. So let's say just kind of math. In my head, 77 million homes have a mortgage, but the staff that i heard and please correct me if i'm wrong - is that, like 60 of them have an interest rate with a four on it.

Did i hear that correctly, 50 right now, if you look in the in the mortgage world, what they're saying is that's about it's about 50 50.. Can you so manzar? Can you believe that half the homes of the mortgage haven't shipped before on it? I know they're they're under a rock they just they're, not they're, not reading the news, they're not talking to their friends they're just they're in the rock. But one thing i would tell you too, as agents, you want to make sure that you're super tough on your lenders right now. Your lender partners may be a little bit m.i.a because of all the refinance action, so you want to make sure you're working with a lender or partner that steps up and focuses on purchases and has a plan for you unless they're doing a cash out refund.

So they can buy more property uh, but i just want to bring that awareness to you just that's where they are, if they're mia they're working on refunds instead of your purchase transactions, so be real selective on on who you partner with there's a lot of great Originators out there yep, i agree. So, let's, let's get back to projections for 2021 david. That next slide, i think, is going to be one that people want to screenshot and share like crazy and probably shoot a video about yeah for sure uh danielle hale from realtor.com chief economist. She says this.

We expect home sales in 2021 to come in seven percent. Above 2020, above this year, we sold more home, we're gon na sell more homes this year than last year and seven percent more next year and again, keywords in here following a more normal seasonal trend and building momentum throughout the spring and sustaining the pace into the Second, half of the year now she goes on to say, while home sales are expected to lose some momentum over the last months of 2020. The shallower, the normal seasonal slowdown, creates a higher base of activity leading into 2021. That is roughly maintained for the first half of the year again as vaccines for the chronovirus become broadly available to the public, and economic growth reflects resumption of more normal patterns of consumer spending.

Home sales gain even more in the second half of the year. So seven percent growth. You know a lot of growth coming into next year, a lot of reasons for that, but but more normal trends as we start to to move into next year, and even you know to your point, tom, even even into 2022.. So i think for everybody out there, the important distinction is, if you have a in your business plan, a goal to do 10 percent more business in 2021 than you did in 2020.

You're really talking about a three percent increase right. The market is going to improve by 7 and all my clients out there know and all my coaches know if we just make our phone calls if we just market, if we just get to follow up at zero every single day, we should blow past that. I was talking to one of my clients just uh just yesterday and lisa. You know her right, so karen peters and her team are up 63 year over year 63 year over year.

Now was that by mistake, or was that because the market or was it because those gals and those guys are working their butts off right now, so so becky? When you hear this, you know seven percent more sales like how do you feel about that uh? Well, our goal is to always do more every year so last year i think we were at um writer just over three around 325. As far as what we closed - and i just pulled our numbers just to make sure i had it accurate and we're already closed. 366 and have 90 under contract, so i mean, i think you know doing even more than that and that's with everything that's been going on with with 2020, so uh yeah. So i think that, if anything i you know i i have no problem with that.

I hope it's even higher than that for us. Yes lisa. What about you? I mean you're you're, saying you've got a pretty ambitious goal for next year: yep yeah, i'm confident, like i said i think the early indicators looking at what we're heading into q1 with which is historically ours, our lightest quarter. I think if we can look at the trends that are already starting to develop 45 60 days out, i think it gives us a lot of hope that it's going to be a really strong year.

If we continue to do the things right, if we keep our eye on exactly what you said, the marketing and the the big one, i think we all need to be realistic. What's going to drive, our business is the listing volume right and if we can put a massive emphasis on finding those sellers and helping them navigate the process, that's that's! Where we're going to win as an industry, yeah 100. So so man i'm going to skip and go back to david childress, because i want to look at the home price forecast, because this is again maybe these last three slides for out there - everybody out there watching you know. Maybe this is a slideshow that you put up on instagram and you finish it with a video on your projections and then asking everyone in your whether it's instagram facebook linkedin youtube, whatever else asking them what they think is going to happen.

This is a great way to start a conversation and get what's on the minds of your prospects and your past clients and spheres. So uh david, let's talk about home price forecast. We know we're gon na do seven percent more sales. That's bonkers! What's gon na happen with prices yeah, i wan na go back to something lisa just said, because it's a it's a key point.

Uh it's gon na depend on listings and we're gon na talk about that. In a minute, we've got what you know. Experts are saying about home prices and the question is where are listings going to come from, and i think there are several areas that the data leads us to that that you know are ripe for listings right now. But let me share this home price forecast.

Uh slide here so we're an interesting time of the year where we get two types of forecasts right now we get a 12 month rolling forecast made. You know throughout the the fourth quarter here and then we get 20 21 forecasts, and so we want to bring both of those together and say: okay, what are we seeing right here? I want to kind of remove some of the outliers in in the middle of these forecasts. As we see you know, i'm going to call it uh two two upper twos, three or four percent in uh in forecast for appreciation going into next year. Now that you know we get seven percent sales growth, we look at this uh appreciation and forecast.

What i mean a lot of these forecasts are dependent upon is more inventory coming back to market and i think from uh. You know things. We've talked about folks that are able to make a decision. Like you said tom on you know, this is where we can now live.

That's that's going to prompt people that need to list a home and bring inventory to market uh. You know you know looking out there and people that we know very much in the data. There are people this year that did not list their home. Out of you know, fears or out of we don't know where we would go so those people say.

Okay. Now we can, we feel safer in that and then we know also that there will be people that will be affected by um. You know forbearance and the economic fallout from this that will cause listings uh in the market. Now we don't wish that upon anyone, but that's a fact of our business and you know happens every quarter.

We've talked extensively about this over the last several weeks, and you know you know even you know as we look at that, and there are questions about that. I'll wrap with this quote here, lauren june, saying any foreclosure increase will be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines, and so i think there are areas right now that we can say okay. This is where listings from from what we know what the data is showing us are likely to come from, there's a job.

We have to do to go out there and be the knowledge broker and say this is what we see coming into the market and uh. You know, as we look at appreciation, look at more home sales next year, it's going to be dependent upon listings coming uh. You know supply coming back into the market, so manzar. What do you think like? What's the and i'm actually, i want david to answer this and then becky and lisa.

If you were sitting down with a couple great agents right now and you said to them, look: here's what you have to do to unlock the inventory in your market. Here's the sources i'd be thinking about here's, the marketing i'd be thinking about so we're going a little tactical here and david i'm going to leave with you first as a coach. So what advice do you have for people to really get in and make sure they're finding the right number of listings in 2021 yeah? So a couple things i mean obviously database database database, so the people that you know trust you love you like. You want you to succeed, call them connect with them, leverage them so trying to get introductions into other people's databases right.

So a lot of professional networking going on. So i'm encouraging my clients to do a short video intro. There's a lot of questions right now regarding real estate, because it's such a crazy time contact, becky, she's, amazing and here's her contact information right. You can do that for insurance.

You can do that for chiropractors. You can do for everybody just so like a networking with your database um. The other thing obviously is uh. Agent-To-Agent referrals, perfect game plan.

Um, you know connect with the agents within this uh ecosystem, brilliant successful it works, it's proven so agent-to-agent referrals, uh. Then the last thing and tom you know me is like what david just said is. It sounds like another campaign. What about a campaign that just says choose your place to live? If you could move anywhere? Where would you move to? I mean rates? Are the best? What a great campaign that would be done! So that's my short answer! Love it lisa! What about yourself, if you were putting you in the role of coach, not just you know top broker and an amazing agent.

What's the best advice to unlock the inventory, how do we get more listings, so the project i'm working on right now is partnerships with local in the low in our local markets to come up with short-term housing solutions so that those who are where the objection is. I don't want to be homeless. We can solve the problem of making sure that they have a place to go short term with no real strings attached so that when they do find the home that they want to move into and there's many options available, not just in short-term housing. But in companies who are offering services to those sellers, but really getting that dialed in, so that we can take away what we're hearing as our biggest objection, which is, i don't - want to be homeless, yeah yep and i can't help but save my friends and i'm An investor in this company, i'm a huge fan, look at companies like easy knock that will say, sell the home and then we'll give you the cash and the time and the terms to go, find your next property so you're, not in that situation, because you're rightly So we got to be looking for ways to solve the breakage right, the fear and worry that people have about hey.

I know to put my home in the market: i'm going to get 11 offers, i'm going to sell for a really crazy price, but then i'm in the situation that bikers are in so you're looking to solve them. Becky. What about yourself? How do we get more yeah? I think everything that david and lisa mentioned for sure is what we're hitting on like our this year. We hit on our agent agent referrals and, of course, being in touch with our database um.

One of the things with our database that we're doing is having the conversations that maybe they don't want to bring up like did they do the forbearance, and you know now they're in a situation where maybe they don't want to necessarily have that conversation with us or They think they're going to be able to work it out, uh and then they're finding out. So you know we're bringing up some of those topics with our database that maybe they're not sure how or what their answers are so um and the thing is like some of the slides showed the difference i see now versus then you know back in 2007 2008 When i would call wells, fargo and say um, i need to talk to your short sale department. They're like what is the short sale department. I don't know what you're talking about.

So that's all for back. We go so um. They didn't have equity. Then now they have equity, and i mean that's really the difference.

Is they just don't even know what their options are? They think that they're going to be able to you know, refinance or the you know, missed payments are going to be tacked on to the end of their. You know loan and it's not always that simple for them, so we're making sure to talk to them about the, for you know, did they do a forbearance and do they know anybody that has questions about that? We can help answer them um. We are getting lists from title companies as far as people who are getting those notices now so we're targeting them and just kind of educating them. We're not saying, oh how you hire me to list your house.

It's just. We have a whole q, a you know. Uh q, a type of um postcard mailing, that's going out to them so that we're targeting them and just giving them information um that they might need, and then, like lisa, said, probably the biggest objection we have is from those people are. Where are we going to go? That's their biggest concern is where they're going to go so just giving them answers to all of those questions before they ask the questions is really what our um uh.

You know. Information has been. You know what i love about. What everybody said here is at the end of the day, it's about it's about being of service right, i mean becky you're, going back and running the same play.

We were running in the short sale environment. The difference is today: they've got so much equity, where you know we were being empathetic to their situation, not abrupt with the situation, but just trying to to be a resource right to be open to see if they would be vulnerable to have that conversation. So i love hearing that i would tell everybody right now. Uh.

I answered probably 15 questions yesterday on instagram uh, you know my little q and a's and and one of them was basically like okay expired's, my farm or my database. Where should i focus - and my answer was like it's the holidays right, you probably should focus on your database. Hey how you doing. What's going on the thing, i would say that i don't think enough.

People are paying attention to. Is your geographic farms right the long-term agents that i work with people that have been doing this for a long time? They are killing it with their geographic farms right now and it's not the expansion of the new farm, it's the existing farm where they've been nurturing and being influential and helping right. So we're telling you double down on your efforts with your farm. So that's a big one.

The other one is take a look at the data inside a solution like remind as an example inside of your mls, because there are some queries you can do to really discover who are the people that are most likely to sell in your marketplace. If i was lisa - and i was in you know, the new englands i'd be saying how many people are 80 years and older, but they're living in two-story homes right. Those people are most likely gon na sell in the next, whether it's year or two or five etc. I'd be really paying attention to the data mining, not just for 2021, but also for the future of my business 2022 and one other just interesting tip.

I had a coaching session with my client tim smith a few days ago, and we were talking about he and greg his manager. He went on about 276 listing appointments this year and when you guys all hear that number, i'm sure you're just like. Oh, my goodness right, but he only listed about 80 and people go. Oh, is that a horrible conversion and tim would say, of course not.

My job is to get in front of as many people as i can that are in the research phase of selling they're. In the conversation of selling right, whether it's today or two years from now, he wants to be need any face to face belly to belly with a mask with gloves. However, it needs to be because what he now knows is he's got two years of inventory coming from appointments. He went on in 2020., so ask yourself how many more appointments? Could you go on with people that are thinking about doing something but they're uncertain? I say: go on more of those appointments and guarantee your listings in the future, so david, why don't we wrap it up? You've got one last slide about winter.

Winter is coming. Winter is here, ladies and gentlemen, it's 35 in dallas talk to us david childers. That is for sure you know this quote comes from lauren june and we'll kind of rap on this. He says this winner may be one of the best winners for sales activity on a winter to winter comparison.

This could be one of the best breakout years, just based on the fact that pending contracts are at such a higher level, lisa and becky. You both talked about that about pendings right now, and i think it's uh it's proving out to be. You know that we go through this winter and it's a it's a great great market heading into uh 2021 and what we can expect there. I agree so, let's, let's wrap with just one last piece of advice from our expert panel and and really it's just what's.

What's one thing you would tell every agent to do to make sure they get the most out of 2021. So anything goes and i always say everybody wants to go first, but we should david manzier, be polite and say, ladies first so lisa i'm coming to you. First, what's what's one piece of advice from someone? That's gon na do 664 transactions this year, you and your team. What do agents need to do to win in 2021? I think it's keep focused right.

I think it's so easy to fall into the distractions coming into the holidays and fall into the distraction of the coronavirus, resurges, and i think one of the things we're working on the most with the team is keeping everybody engaged and focused and still finding time to Balance out yeah yeah yeah, i i concur, i say to people you got to decide, you're going to live in a this or that i get a good holiday, but i can't have a good business or you can live in this and that how do i have A great holiday and continue to make my phone calls and stay focused, so i love it. Becky, garcia, last piece of advice, yeah step like lisa, said, definitely stay focused and i'm big on knowing your inventory and setting the market. I know every builder every floor plan. Every i can look at something and know whether or not it's priced right or not, because i study those hot sheets every single day.

So the first thing i would say is one of the other, then of course keeping in touch with your database and making sure you do that: um really studying uh the market and looking at those hot sheets every day the mls gives them. I look at them through boomtown, but um everybody study know your inventory. That's always going to give you an edge over agents that don't yeah and becky. I would reiterate by saying to everybody out there watching.

That means you're not just scanning the new hot listings that are coming up, but you're going into the mls and really doing research right becky, because everybody says i look at it every day tom and i'm like not because you got a buyer and you're waiting for You know hot listing going deep and looking at it yeah. So that way, when one client says i'm looking for x, y and z, you know exactly where you know you know the house already pops up. You already know what it's going, whether it's priced right.