Hello, everyone welcome back to another market, open, live stream wow. We have a pretty dang red market today and uh. That's uh exactly what we're going to be talking about a lot today, i'm going to be talking about why this is happening. What's going on uh, but uh first uh take take a look at just uh cnbc.

Here. Look! Look at this disaster here uh you got the red bar bitcoin drops 10 to below 43 000 as risky assets. Tumble globally regulatory concerns intensify. Dow jones future is down 1.85 s, p, futures down 1.67 percent nasdaq futures down 1.64 oils down 175..

The 10-year treasury yield is down uh 1. To one point: three: one percent you've you've just got a mess happening in the market right now. Now a lot of this uh is happening for reasons because of uh well well, there are two things: we've kind of been on this down trend, uh in uh in the last few weeks here, and a lot of this has been because of valuation fears and concerns. Uh we did see uh stocks get uh, let's see here there we go uh, we did see.

Uh stocks get a bunch of uh support, sort of uh at the end of august, as uh as really delta was starting to we're still kind of continuing to search in a weird way. Stocks actually did kind of well uh and uh. Now we're kind of seeing stocks not do so well, which which makes sense, because uh well we've got uh the evergrand uh disaster happening in china. We've got delta kind of not doing as horribly as it used to so.

The potential move into u.s stocks. That uh was was pushed by delta, is now maybe potentially going away uh at the same time as us, seeing slower growth than we expected so you've kind of got a little bit of a pull out of u.s stocks as delta was not getting as bad as We thought it would, which is good. Uh you've got uh this. This concern over growth, slowing down you've got this valuation concern for the stock market and really the big catalyst.

That's just lighting everything on fire is the evergreen crisis uh put on top of that. The uncertainty that comes with uh the federal reserve having their taper meeting this week, which we expect them to delay that to november you've, got lots of uncertainty going on regarding what what's potentially going to come of the uh infrastructure package. You've got the bipartisan infrastructure package. That's supposed to have a vote on the 27th, which is next monday uh.

If that gets delayed, it's it's going to potentially hurt progress for either of the infrastructure packages. The bigger infrastructure packages having its own issues, uh the immigration portion of the bill, just got slapped upside the head uh so that there won't be any a pathway to legal immigration inside the bill. You've got uh concerns over nancy pelosi, not being able to actually get enough support. She could only get three votes or it could only lose three votes in the house and right now it looks like she will lose those three votes if well, and the bill isn't even complete the way it is so you've got so so much going on uh And throw on top of that, the uh fact that inside that infrastructure, bill you've got things like capital gains.

Tax increases, other tax increases, uh tax changes for carried interest. You've got lots of spending that won't directly help the market immediately, but instead would help the market over the next 10 years, so it'll be very different from the stimulus sort of uh boost that we've been used to and uh you've got the debt ceiling discussion. So i think what i literally just spewed out here in the last like two minutes is: it creates a perfect recipe or stew of crap, like literally just just ugly uh nasty, uh, crap and uh, and that's that's just the the you know what we're in right Now, uh that's unfortunate, but anyway, okay, let's go ahead and uh take a look at how uh stocks are behaving in the pre-market here on an individual level. It's also uh.

Actually, you know what let's also start with uh crypto here quickly, uh. So going over. To point coin market cap uh - let's see here there we go uh. It is worth noting that uh in the middle of the night, it was like 1am now it was closer to like 1 30., anyway, closer to 1 30 a.m.

Yes, i i was awake five hours ago, uh, four and a half hours ago, three and four hours ago anyway, um i i did send a massive alert uh in terms of uh, a move that i was making in crypto, a move that i was making in A bunch of stocks and uh - let's just say, i've got more cash available now than i have ever had before. So i'm ready to go, buy the dip shopping, okay, but i'm buying the dip right now, uh yeah anyway, all right! So um let's go ahead and take a peek over here um after taking a sip of some level 99 fire cafe all right, so you've got uh bitcoin, uh bitcoin right now, uh down to 43 423 sharp sell-off here in the cryptocurrency space, including uh cardano. Here down at two dollars and eight cents, ethereum down at three thousand uh and uh fifteen dollars, solano down to 139 here, finance coin 367, polka dots down as well, dogecoin down to 20 cents, just under 21 cents. Here got a lot of pain happening in uh and really anything that is risk on related and you're, going to see that uh over here how much cash about 5.4 that i'm excited to use to buy the dip with uh anyway, uh we've got the volatility index.

I tweeted this as well by the way it's uh this part about the volatility index check this out uh and i'll pull up a little chart here too, but i tweeted that's why you should follow me on twitter, too talked about like uh here this morning. I see four hours ago the stock crypto sell-off might get worse. I wrote a few things here: uh, but uh, of course, the specific alerts in terms of buy sells or or whatever uh. The whole message is in the stocks in psychology and money group, which you know that coupon code expires on friday.

You can check that out, link down below, but, more importantly, look at look at this uh or maybe just as importantly, this is the volatility index and four hours ago i wrote the volatility index. The vix, also known as the fear index had, has presently had its largest increase since may 12th, and you remember you might remember that. May 12th was a very beautiful buying opportunity. So if you go to year to date here and you go to may 12th - you can see here may 12th.

We got to a reading of 27.59, and so we are presently experiencing the largest spike, since that we have not beaten that spike. Yet, since that spike did bring us up to 27.59, but we certainly have a substantial spike here in volatility uh, sometimes the volatility index usually does not stay elevated for more than a day uh. Sometimes it's it has sort of this double peak. You see this double peak that we have over here.

Usually the first day is worse than the next day of sort of a kind of market move which that's worth noting uh. You did have a double peak over here in february and march, but the may peak really shot up to about 2184 next day, 27 59 next day actually fell down to 2313.. So it begs the question: is the fear index right now? The first part of this raise, or is it already the peak and would this fear index be going back down tomorrow, uh i i don't know it certainly is possible that we could easily get back uh. You know uh to to a higher level.

Here. Let me go out to a year a year is going to give me this october run see in october. We had this interesting move in the volatility index, where we kind of shot up right here right before the election to about 29 went down for a day or so then shot up to 32 then shot up even beyond that. So we really have a precedent for this kind of a movement here and it wouldn't be shocking to see this go up substantially more, especially if this pain sort of continues here in the market uh uh.

So then we've got uh yeah. Let's look at the actual uh movements here in stocks, so you actually do have a couple of uh survivors here. Uh doing well wait hold on a sec. Wait, wait, wait, wait hold on a second! Where wait a minute.

They just updated this last with pre where's. The pre-market change, oh here we go, they just updated weeble and it's all weird there. We go okay, never mind that thing about the survivors, uh yeah. We have um three things that are red, i'm sorry, three things that are green today.

Everything else is red. Literally, everything else is red smile direct, which ran as much as 20 in the pre-market. This morning i watched it this morning and i'm like whoa like where did that come from and uh yeah it had a big old move this morning, yeah then uh, i'm really gon na fix this thing. This silly little book i have here the binding of it.

Uh ripped, i'm just gon na, probably put some glue on it. Oh well, anyway, um yeah smile direct was up as much as twenty percent this morning and uh. Now it's only up about three percent uh and - and you can pretty much see here - that nothing's doing great so in case you're just now joining, i would recommend watching the beginning of the video back watch it back in like two minutes, because i talk a lot About what the he double hockey sticks is happening now we're gon na look at the sticks and then obviously we'll get into market open talking a little bit more, but i do highly recommend you watch the beginning of this video, okay, so uh yeah, i mean look Everything's red, essentially, with the exception of these three things here, i wouldn't be surprised. The smile direct ends up going red as well uh.

In fact, as i'm talking about it, it's going from a three percent gain to a two percent gain. It's kind of rotating down the biggest losers right now. Uh in the pre-market are uh gree, which is support.com. The merger here hud 8, which is down 10 marathon digital, which is down nine five fo.

That's my old area code, uh hive riot microstrategy pretty much anything internet. Anything crypto related here is absolutely getting decimated. As we saw a few minutes ago, the crypto market is selling off. I did send a big crypto alert uh to everybody in the stocks and site group this morning, as well as some other uh stock alerts that helped me raise some cash.

A firm is uh at uh 6.35 to the downside. I've got some covered calls on this. One at 1 15, so those will be doing nice, but otherwise uh. There's there's definitely going to be some real pain here.

You've got lemonade down to 69 amc down, uh 5.88 to 41.6 matterport uh down 5.75 tattooed shaft same thing, a lot of pain. Here it looks like spax and potentially some higher valuation companies are some of the larger selloffs here, including lucid blink arrival, though uh in vitae, though mixed in you do have talent here, which was a direct listing. You've got archimoto another one. Let's see dutch bro selling off again up starts coming down 4.4 end phase.

Look at this sitting at 154 right now, mp, materials at 32.. A lot of these numbers by the way aren't like substantially low at the moment. Uh. You know this.

This is, in my opinion, not necessarily where i i think this is really a buy the dip opportunity, because i don't really think that these prices are a dip like. I don't really believe that 154 is a big dip. We've kind of been seeing that number for a while in the last few weeks. I don't really believe that chargepoint sitting at 20.34 cents is a big dip, we've kind of been waiting for it to go under 20 dollars.

Anyway, i said, look pound here at 27 and uh 24 cents. I don't really see this as a big dip right now. I think there's a lot more work to do on that. In fact, let me see if i saw my palantir options because last last week we did fortunately close multiple positions: uh specifically option contracts, um yeah, including no okay.

We did close it last week, see i cl last week. I closed options on uh, google, palantir uh. Quite there were quite a few things i can't remember all of them, but i closed quite a few call contracts that were up and doing very well last week and uh yeah, okay, now the pound here. Well, unless it's in robin hood, i'm pretty sure it's gone.

Uh, i will check here, though it could be over here robin hood. Let me check that really quick. Well, i can't really trade option contracts anyway, until the market opens checking checking cherry cherry treasure, yeah, no, okay, all right! I got rid of that. Okay, good! So uh yeah pound here obviously had had a remarkable week last week and uh.

I remember what i said last week. I said, don't be afraid to take profits when some of your call options are green because they can evaporate very very quickly. I was raising cash last week as well. I raised cash a little bit more this morning, around 1 15 to 1 30 a.m and uh yeah.

Now i'm excited again, though, i'm i'm really looking for like real dips here, because you know coinbase at 232, like yeah, who cares it's been sitting there? Basically, since i, since it ipo'd so uh, not like a huge sort of exciting dip where i'm like? Oh my gosh: this is the best deal ever right, we're just not there yet uh neo is sitting at 35.99. You know that used to be really good, but you've got a lot of discounting here because of the the disaster in china. Winds sitting at 80. Bucks same thing so far at uh, 14 54 we've seen some of these prices before not too recently.

So really this this down draft here in the market not horribly much at the moment. So, even though the indices feel really painful, and we feel like a lot of this is concentrated at the same time, there is a part of me: that's very concerned that this kind of sell-off and downdraft that we're seeing is really just the beginning. Because again, we haven't actually seen prices go down that much. I mean look at tesla here and again.

This is really just to start here, but tesla's down three percent today, but look at the trend it's been on since may, like okay, who cares three percent or uh? What is that gon na be 740 or whatever is going to be right here? Where my mouse is okay, what like i'm supposed to get excited about that like it's, not even gon na wake me up. I'm gon na fall asleep before i care about that. So, like i'm, saying here, yeah the this. If this ever grown a grand issue and this broader sort of uh global risk, liquidity or sell-off is going to continue, uh liquidity raise and and sell-off is going to continue.

Then we have a lot of work to do in terms of damage. Uh of of stock prices, because they're very they're high, and so i think, there's a lot of capacity for a further drawdown. I mean wow, really, google and apple down 1.65, like big deal right uh - and i recognize you know these. These are the heavier weights and our indices.

Here you go to cnbc. These are our indices being down. You know now the dow's accelerated down further to about 1.91 uh 1.73 1.7 here on s p and nasdaq, slightly lower than where we were about 18 minutes ago. So still heading in that downside direction same thing with the nasdaq futures, and if i go ahead and i'm just going to take, you know with these sort of more global sell-offs, uh of uh or risk sell-offs, it really doesn't matter what coin you look at.

You could pretty much just look at one and uh you, you kind of get your your tell for the entire market. This is not like a coin based, uh sell-off. It's it's more! It's more broad right! Here's the minute chart where you're actually trying to see a little bit of a recovery from 43 3 up to 43.7 on bitcoin do know, though, that crypto is some of the most heavily traded, uh institutional uh. What what do i want to call it asset uh that uh that exists about 70 of trading that happens in cryptocurrency is uh, is institutional driven and so we're trying to see a little tiny bit of a bounce over here.

But you can see the broader trend here on the 15-minute chart is substantially to the downside, though again we do have a green candlestick there on btc uh right now within the last 15 minutes here, since we checked in on it so uh yeah. Look! No! No! We're not actually expecting a taper to come anytime soon from the federal reserve. The federal reserve, however, does not really care about stock prices, even though that might seem crazy because they bailed the crap out of the stock market. Last year, uh the stock - the federal reserve - doesn't really care about that.

There's a disconnect between when the federal reserve's going to taper and and what economic conditions are. The fed cares more about inflation and jobs and they care about stock prices. So if you're expecting jerome powell to come out and coddle you uh, you know when we have the fomc meeting. I think you're going to be sadly disappointed.

So i would not. I would not anticipate that uh, okay, so anyway, uh. Let's take a brief moment. Uh momentary look right here for what it's worth, because this is uh.

This is a big deal, driving the market's pain right now that homeowners are also going to uh. Uh may be made whole as well. So that's that's the thinking behind um. What people here believe uh beijing um, is going to how beijing is going to move next carl um we'll see eunice.

Thank you. Eunice yoon in beijing, obviously uh rapidly evolving situation as we get closer to those debt payment deadlines. During the week, jim there's, there's the bank and the financial uh aspect, there's also the labor aspect: they hire evergrand uh, almost four million workers every year to develop various projects and have 200 000 employees of their own. Well, as usual, eunice is spot on those people.

The chinese government doesn't want to hurt. They do want to hurt the rich people as part of common prosperity. Uh. Do we really need the people? Okay, we're gon na pull off this uh, so a little bit of a recovery here right now in in, for example, hud eight's price, which makes sense because of that 15-minute chart that we just saw here.

I do see a comment here: uh somebody's essentially saying kevin. The fed doesn't care about stock prices, lol, kevin well, look. The the reality is, all you have to do is look at february when the market started falling and everybody was expecting jerome powell to coddle the stock market, and he didn't because he cares about inflation and jobs as his top priority now, sometimes responding to a crush. In inflation or responding to a weak job market is uh is, is uh, essentially printing, a lot of money which has the effect of propping up the stock market as well uh, even to the point where the federal reserve was buying corporate bonds to uh help show Support for the market, but the primary intention was was not asset prices.

It was uh. That was a byproduct of the madness that happened, and so i'm saying that, because if you're thinking jerome powell is going to come bail out the stock market because we have a few red days, it's not. It would not be something that i would trade off of. Let's, let's say that i would be more inclined to trade and take the opposite end of that trade uh anyway, crypto uh right now is is again trying to recover a little bit.

Uh btc bouncing off of that 42-5 level. Here, uh still a lot of pain in the market still at some of the lowest uh levels we've been at uh in in the hot minute here uh, you know what i would say this is the lowest we've been at since beginning of august, or so you Know so, we've had our rally, but it doesn't give us a lot of support either so sitting at 43, 675 right now, 43, 675 yeah somewhere bouncing off somewhere around the bottom of these guys over here. So we'll see where this goes. That's on the day, chart again 5 15 minute, looking a little better with recovery here, and that is helping soften the blow a little bit to some of the crypto miners, but uh we'll see how that lasts.

In the meantime, uh we've got seven minutes until the market opens. Uh you've got uh, cnbc and uh the indices here, pulling pulling up a little bit here. Uh dao futures were down 1.9. We were in the 1 7 over here.

So a tiny little bit of a recovery so we'll see we'll see how this goes, but again the the pricing that i mean like a firm like 108 109. It's not like a horribly exceptional deal, so i hate to sound like oh, my gosh, like there's so much red, but it's not a buy the dip opportunity, but, like literally this is this is not a but there's no dip, uh, there's no dip. Yet. This is like, like a matterport, for example, ran insanely to 22.

uh, okay, cool, congratulations, but it's like barely been here at 21 22. These are some of the highest levels it's been at in quite a while. So look at it it's down 5.6! Well, it was up five percent 5.5 percent on friday. It's almost like the market is just giving back friday right now, so not uh, not blown away uh in terms of uh buying opportunities here more preparing for the potential that uh that the saga continues.

So here let me go into end phase here see i. I would be much more interested in seeing end phase trade substantially below this line for a longer period of time. That to me would be a little bit more of a tell see if i go out to the day. Chart we'll see that fall in may.

Let's go here there we go so uh. Here we go. We see this sort of dance underneath the line over here. Dance on top of the line over here, this may fall.

This is when you really have pain in the market. When you see a stock like end face sitting at 120 to 108, there's becomes so much pain in the market that all of a sudden, you have the company itself buying back its shares. That's interesting to me. You know that that's now, all of a sudden we're really starting to get to some pain, a charge point sitting on this uh on this support line isn't particularly uh an opportunity, in my opinion, either is way fair at you know, 280 or whatever so uh.

Let's uh, let's just see what some coverage is here, what we've got on headline news uh? So it's just a warm up. Oh that's what it feels like yeah, uh, not coin. I need i need to turn the fans off where the fans there we go perfect. All right so uh top of uh bloomberg, which uh it's it's worth noting bloomberg is pretty popular amongst uh institutions and traders, and if uh traders, trade 70 of cryptocurrency, then i would expect some selling to uh create liquidity for other opportunities and uh.

When you have bloomberg, takes a beating as the top story on bloomberg, talk or bitcoin takes a beating as the top story of bloomberg.com. It could potentially uh push push things down a little bit a little bit more uh planning a video also on the solano blackout. Uh stay tuned on that maybe later today, but anywho warm coffee now not hot anymore, darn. All right, so uh take a look at this here's.

This is. This is beautiful uh. This is the the buckle up. Talk right, yeah, morgan stanley sees growing risk of a 20 drop in the s p that that is substantial.

A 20 drop in the s p 500 is is very, very substantial uh, and it is something that i would be uh closely. Monitoring is is uh. You know, is it possible that we're going to extend substantially past uh a five percent correction in the s p? Let's, let's see here, uh, let's go to before. I actually read this s: p.

500! Oh goodness, gracious! Oh my gosh hold on snp there. You go all right s, p, 500, so take a look at this. You've got um. Where was our last five percent correction? Last five percent correction was really here uh in what is this september down to october november.

There you had about there. We go okay, so here is your last five percent correction in the s p 500, where you had this october to really beginning of november, sell down of about 6.4 ish percent. If i go out a little bit more, you also see some pain here in september. Where you go yeah, okay, you could kind of see a fight yeah there we go august 28 to september 25th.

You had about that 5.97 drawdown, so you had a 5.97 drawdown here. You had a six percent drawdown here in october, so end of september and then october well, actually beginning of september and then uh end of october. You had uh these larger drawdowns of five to six percent. We have not seen a five to six percent uh decline in the s p.

500 at any time really recently here, if we just go back to the beginning of five days ago, to where we are now we're only down you know percent, although i don't think this incorporates the pre-market here so 45 36 and what's our pre-market here, cnbc uh Market's recovering a little bit right now, actually, which is really good 43.54. So, let's see here, 43 54 divided by the high of 45, 36. 45. 36.

That's about a 4 decline right there! So if, if we declined, another percent or so we'd, finally get to that 5 to actually get something like uh like a larger drop off at 20, or something like that, i mean we'd - have to go down to somewhere, like 3 700, which is a level we Have not seen since really february uh see if we pull back to february yeah that that probably be about a 20-ish percent decline if we actually had something like that which would potentially line up with something like what morgan stanley was talking about here. Let's get ready for the bell, though uh as uh things are recovering slightly here, still seeing that that crypto bounce off the bottom here, seeing a little bit of uh happiness coming back into some stocks here, let's uh get the bell here: let's listen in and then We'll come back to the sticks when the chinese government's happy enough to say that we have common prosperity, they will then help the people, but we have to just understand she has an agenda and his agenda is to make it so the rich. It's robin hood: don't buy robin hood off this. Oh look at that red urban air mobility company archer aviation celebrating a listing via spack at the nasdaq fulton financial.

A financial services holding company as breath is rolling in obviously heavily negative jim. I guess all right: let's go ahead and hop on to the sticks over here. So take a peek. Stick, stick sticks, uh s, p 500 uh.

It looks like it was going to see this is that gain? We were seeing uh going towards towards the opening here. Red candle stick at the at the open, though so uh smile, direct owlette and beat blue sky digital still. The only things that i really see is green here, uh really uh. Oh there we go.

No. We got a few more things. Green, look at that delta! American airlines went green, uh, united airlines, mp materials, okay, so something's actually going green here, including yeah. Look at the airlines the airline's bouncing a little bit here.

Okay, so a little bit of love coming to the market, that's good! It's almost like you had this pre-market discount, that's being bought up yeah, look at that tesla just gained about a percent uh! That's incredible! A little bit of a pre-market bets here! Uh! No doubt, let's look at mttr, uh mttr, that's down! Okay, so you're getting a wedge here where things like arcimoto matapor, these things are are falling a little bit more than uh than they were, but uh, let's see here there we go uh but uh. Let's see a firm, some things are actually bouncing back. Uh affirms dancing a little bit, akamoto dancing a little bit uh this hadn't. This had a nice little push up here for a moment: er, okay, okay, let's see here then interesting.

So what a bizarro market here, hud 8 mining - only down about 8.6 right now was down about 10 redfin still down 5.8 percent redfin is turning more red. Expi is turning more red shift, is actually popping up after the sell-off you've got uh arcimoto archimoto trending to the upside we've got. Let's see here, clever, trying to move this very interesting. Look at that lemonade popping up a little bit here.

It's almost like you got a little too depressed there and two sold off in the pre-market. You have a tattooed chef recovering is matterport doing that kind of recovery as well a little bit a little bit. This is this. Is why it it? You know not not so terribly exciting to buy any of this dip yet uh where's, where are the other? Where are the things that went green, like where's delta? Where are they? We just saw them delta airlines, no delta.

What is that? What this is confusing? Look at that delta went opened green now, all of a sudden it's sharply declining. This is so weird uh you've got american airlines. Opening green running green sharp decline to the downside. Dutch bros was was pretty sold off in the pre-market and you've got to work.

You've still got a recovery in in bros here, yeah the market's really trying to find itself right now. Uh, let's see here, hud 8.13, that's better than where it was before: a firm 5.33 uh leotto uh redfin gevo lordstown uh. This i mean this, isn't some incredible volatility here: uh neo sitting down four-ish percent here, matterport four-ish percent, not as substantial as it was before uh crypto, trying to come back a little bit doze, just over 21. ethereum uh trying to get back to that 31 level.

At 30 56 right now, which is higher than where it was a little bit ago, 43 872, here on bitcoin, also a little bit higher than where it was uh. Tesla gained a percent there at the open and and now appears to be a little bit more sideways. Now dutch bros appears to be slowing down as well, two and a half percent. This is just a bizarre bizarre, open, very, very weird.

It's almost like the market is just very tentative and uncertain here see, look at that s, p 500 turned red, but now going green again a little bit. So how? How are the underlyings doing here, like google and uh, and then a little sideways google's down? Two percent aapl one percent, not a dip that i'm jumping up and down about buying it's a relatively nominal dip here, we're still at at high prices and uh. If anything, this is a potential just like little warning sign to to maybe take advantage of of some higher prices of some particular stocks uh to prepare to buy a larger dip. If we have a larger dip, we might not have a higher tip, but uh wow.

The market's been relatively resilient here, given the uh pain in the pre-market with the market not falling more uh rather uh stabilizing and in some cases increasing a little bit. Let's see how the indices look right now, yeah, look at that indices. Uh certainly recovered here. Er you've got uh sure this headline.

This is worst sell-off since july, but the dow was just down 1.9 percent in free market and now it's only down 1.39 s p and nasdaq were down about 1.7. Now only down about 1.37 1.63 russell 2000 actually went positive. That's a reversal of about one and a half percent, really incredible uh, let's see here uh. So what a incredible! Incredibly bizarre open! We have here emc.

Let's take a look at amc. How did how amc is behaving in this? There we go. Uh amc had a nice little bounce uh, but now trading a little bit more on the sideways direction, still down about five percent mttr mta ttr at some high prices right now, still down about 6.2 percent trading, a little bit sideways. You've got lucid, uh, lucid down about 4.31 percent archimoto fuv sitting also about slightly sideways here.

I think the market's really trying to figure out what it wants to do here. S p 500 does look like it's trying to gain a little bit and uh. Let's see what what what is actually green now, a few things green here, costco smile, direct, barely dominoes, certainly a lot of red uh palantir expi hard to tell exactly the direction of of where the market's going to take us. Today, it's kind of like the market's trying to figure it out itself, but with headlines like this, morgan stanley sees growing risk of 20 drop in the s p.

500. A lot of folks are going to be pretty nervous if you're just now joining make sure to watch the beginning part of this video, where i break down all of the reasons for the madness that's happening. There's so many reasons creating this. This uncertainty, stew, that i'm i'm talking about uh and it's it's not just evergrand.

It's also that reversal of delta. It's also the uh, the debt ceiling. It's uh federal reserve chairman chairman jerome powell, who's not going to be bailing us out at the fomc meeting, uh higher valuations, slowing growth, so many things, and so it makes sense in part that morgan stanley, for example, might suggest a 20 drop in the s. P.

500 again, we haven't seen that kind of drop in a very very long time we haven't. We haven't even seen a five percent decline in the s p, 500 uh since uh. Since last october, we've not seen a five percent s p decline and really we're still we're still about one percent away from a five percent s p 500 decline. So not a real buy the dip opportunity, in my opinion, just more of uh.

You know in some cases a little bit of a warning shot of maybe take some profits on some stocks that have some nice gains uh and prepare for a larger by the dip. We might not get that larger by the dip, though, so i would certainly never recommend liquidating your entire portfolio, but i would i would raise cash in in opportunities where i felt a little bit more interested in realizing some profits, uh worth noting uh two things, and Then i want to check this article out here. Two things number one: you could get a free stock with public by going to med, kevin dot com, public, get up to 70 dollars totally for free and, of course, use that coupon code for uh 40 off the amazing programs. I'm building your wealth link down below that does expire this friday friday.

The 24th price will be going up thanks to uh this temporary inflation that we've got going on and you'll see a larger uh transaction that i made this morning. You know to free up some cash and that has to do with crypto and stocks. Okay. So let's take a look at this morgan stanley calling for a potential 20 s - p: 500 selloff, while they believe this is a worst case scenario.

The bank said that evidence is starting to point to weaker growth and falling consumer confidence that this is also true uh. This is uh. This is very much a reiteration we're seeing this uh falling consumer confidence. Weaker growth, you've also got inflation, that's been higher for longer, and that's certainly weighing on individuals, consumer confidence and so you've.

Seen as inflation has has uh gone up. Consumer confidence has has shaved substantially in a note on monday, strategists laid out two directions for the u.s markets, which they dubbed as fire and ice. The fire outcome, the more optimistic view. The federal reserve pulls away stimulus to keep the economy from running too hot.

A typical fire outcome would lead to a modest and healthy 10 percent, smp 500 correction, the more bearish ice scenario, that's gaining traction, as strategists said, laying out a picture in which the economy sharply decelerates and earnings gets squeezed. So this is actually firearm ice are both bad fire would be a 10 reduction and looks like ice would be a little more than that, as earnings decline, slightly uh, potentially in the direction of of 20. Will it be fire ice? We don't know, but the ice scenario would be worse for markets and we're leaning in that direction. We we think the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction.

Finally, hitting the s p 500 yeah yeah, yikes uh, we'll see what happens there. Uh did get a little bit more green here. Just a few more uh, including the russell russell being green, is pretty incredible right now, dominoes domino's pretty much straight up since uh the bell here: restoration hardware, same thing, target same thing: nice recovery and some of these uh. These stocks got uh consumer staple there of target, got delta, coming up, uh pitons only down point five percent nice recovery here, so i mean this is the incredible resilience of this market.

Is that, even though we had such a bloody bloody uh pre-market here, things really recovering uh into the morning here, certainly at least uh. Some stocks like airbnb target uh apple uh, salesforce, facebook, yeah facebook a little bit more sideways here. Let's go ahead and uh draw down to crypto here and then look at the larger losers, so crypto also bouncing nicely and let's grab it here. 43.88 you've got that bounce that we've been watching here.

This is now on the five minute chart and so still seeing that do have uh a let's look at the larger losers here. So you do have a uh continued looks like uh sell-off slightly in expi hive hud 8 - these mostly just holding on to the losses that you saw sort of in the pre-market here. Playboy microvision, these guys down about five percent dutch bros dutch bro has been pretty volatile. Uh you, you went as low as uh, just a one percent decline now back down to about a four percent decline, kind of messy messy messy messy.

Let's, let's see what else we have here and i'll look at some headlines that we have uh in the uh terminal as well. Yeah, it does look like indices, are recovering yeah s, p, 500 and dao both recovering from both down just now. One point: one: six percent s p one point: one uh two: one percent, both of these uh recovering here uh. We got - let's see here, um, okay, same sort of headlines here about uh evergrand we've talked about that.

We talked about. Crypto talked about the 20 decline here on bloomberg e from the morgan stanley projections, no real particular other news. I'm gon na look at the terminal here just to see top news yeah. Let's see here top all right.

Let's see here: okay, ever okay, the fed can't fix right: okay, bitcoin, false usds, realtors fan blah blah blah powell's fighting for the minds of people, yeah kind of kind of boring. Let me see here 10-year, let's look at the 10-year as well. Sometimes we can see uh people buying bonds as a flight to safety and then, as people buy, the price goes up. The yield falls.

Bonds actually fund yields recovering a tiny little bit. Look at this. This is kind of a symbol of the pain that you've seen in the market. Here let me hide myself for a moment, so you could really see this draw down here, as the market was preparing to open, but now all of a sudden, it's like treasuries, are selling off again, as the market is recovering so you're seeing those yields go up Again, sitting at about 1.33, so uh that pain, sort of evaporating that max pain looks like max.

Payne was really somewhere around uh 8 18 a.m, which uh is uh, is about 5 18 a.m. California time so about an hour and a half ago for about max payne, a market being open now seeing a recovery here, not much of a dip here again, more broadly speaking, a lot of these stocks, uh still at at some of the record highs that we've Seen and uh not ridiculously exciting, uh in terms of uh, lower prices and uh in an incredible way. Uh stocks already coming back uh, definitely faster than expected here on sort of a recovery here which was potentially, who knows if that's sort of indicated by by the vix? Is this just a sort of a warning shot on the vix? Is it uh a um? You know, what do you call it um you know is: is this the peak of volatility see take a look at this type in vix you get. Oh, let's go out to one month again you get the spike here on the vix going out to the sixth month.

You see that peak out here to may 12th and remember these peaks. As we mentioned earlier in the video, they tend to come you peak, and then you see that rotation down, usually unless of course, you're building up something like this october crisis, where you had these peaks and you ended up getting higher peaks thereafter. So we'll see, but right now the market is actually digesting the madness of what was going on this morning quite well, the indices recovering russ. What is going on with the russell here? The russell will just went green for a moment and now it's down 2.46 that doesn't make sense hold on a second here.

Uh. Is that true yeah? That is so bizarre. What what happened there? Can i get the russell 2000 showing up in here. That's bizarre because yeah here it's showing us that very very, very weird, okay, let's we are getting more green in individual stocks, including the airline stocks going green again, they've been weird u-turners.

They turned green, then red, then green, again, uh such a uncertain market. Here ater smile direct coming to the upside uh good by the dipping on hippo right now. Uh you've got iron net down, but uh. Otherwise, you've got let's see here.

There's hippo there's peloton pfizer restoration, hardware, booking holdings uh, let's see here, lululemon fanny boston, beer kind of trying to. I mean a lot a lot of green here as we're opening up. It's really good look at that green rotating up to the upside nicely here. Let's look at home depot on lowe's home depot, also green uh, lowe's green.

I mean they're red on the day, but uh boy, oh boy, it's a strong kind of comeback here for uh for a lot of uh stocks. Look at uh, green and uh voyager voyager digital wow, down seven percent uh hud, eight uh down seven percent, but also recovering expi, same thing: some recovery, meta materials rotation to the downside here on meta, but again, four or five percent big deal at this point. Uh really interesting matterport's only down about four point: five percent with some of these latest runners you'd almost respect, expect a larger kind of uh drawdown but uh very fleeting. What we had this morning, bitcoin's staying stable at around that 43, really having trouble getting above.

That 43a level, otherwise it's just it's a broad red day, not a good by the dip opportunity, not not a very good, buy the dip opportunity right now. Uh, let's see southwest look at that peloton went green. It's incredible! Uh domino's, target gap, qualcomm boston, beer; okay! Let's uh: let's take a look at this. Meanwhile, as it's recovering cnbc is saying, the sell-off is intensifying everybody's watching the 200-day moving average 41.06 is the 200-day moving average uh.

That's about seven percent below where we are. That's that gray line that you see the that purple line is the 50-day moving average we've already essentially sitting right on that slightly below it, so that would be uh if we hit that 41.06 carl. That would be about a 10 drop, seven percent below where we are now we're already down about three percent from the old highs uh and there you go. That would be the correction level, so everybody's watching that 200-day moving average 41.06 for the technicals carl back to you all right bob talked in a bit about bassani as we go to break today.

Let's take a look at the bond report see how treasuries are doing. We mentioned yields down for the first time in four sessions lower across the board 10-year right around 1-3-2-7, we'll be right. Back volatility index looks like it peaked and not not anywhere near where the volatility was uh intraday here so uh volatility uh hopping hopping back to uh the 24 range. We were almost at 26 on the vix here pulling this vix.

Let's go to the one minute here: yeah look at that we ran up according to weeble. Here, ran up to 2566, really slowing down right now, uh and uh you get uh again. I think it's very well worth comparing to may here and how, when you get these spikes, you rarely get multi-day spikes, you get these individual skyrockets and then often a softening. The only time i've really seen.

Multi-Day spiking was here in october, where you had this growing spiking sort of a spike here to from about 27 to about 33 and then a further spike, but otherwise, usually the fear index. Spikes tend to rotate back to the downside and that's a little bit of what we're seeing right now, where you get the substantial spike and then a decline, so not uh, not as bad as uh. Really things looked like, they were going to be today. I've almost got a full page of green here and uh really on the on the red side, not too terribly much pain, something's again a warning shot in my opinion, uh for for a lot of higher valuation plays.

I uh definitely interested in uh, like last week raised a lot of cash last week, closing options, things that are still up, that i could sell options on for an elevated price willing to do that to uh raise money for, for what could be a potential longer Term correction and marketplace see: look at this tesla's been a very interesting one. Today, tesla uh did recover at the open, but now has rotated back to the downside, uh, and so these are. These are things i'm really watching is. Am i going to get larger buying opportunities and things like lemonade or hippo, insurance or a farm? I think the answer to that is: yes, i'm also relatively patient in that i don't know that.

Uh with with the crises that we have on the radar right now, uh the infrastructure package, uncertainty, the debt ceiling, uncertainty, the uncertainties around evergrand uh, the fed uh stimulus package, even number one, the hard infrastructure package - i i think, there's definitely a potential for a real Dip yeah, but we're not really seeing that today, even though it's so broad-based red. This is not a very juicy uh by the dip opportunity, uh in my opinion, so i'm watching though uh okay, so um yeah. Let's, let's look at some other headlines here and uh see what else we got going on so there's doge ethereum talked about those and uh. Okay, then yeah.

Let's go hop on over to some other headlines here. Let's go wall street journal all right, so stocks fall on china. Property fears talked about this. A lot pfizer, bioentex, say vaccine is safe for young children.

I wonder if this is one of the reasons we're starting to see airlines move a little bit um. Let's see here: okay, realtor realtors, face federal scrutiny of broker commissions. That's interesting, uh. The facebook files big five part series here that they've had all right.

So let's go to barons. Let's see what baron says for us kind of a little bit of a buzz kill there. I was really hoping hope personally hoping for a little bit of uh uh, like uh, more of a dip there to actually go shopping for something but uh. That uh was a little boring so far, uh anyway, stocks are sliding on contagion fears.

So you talked about kind of a reason for this and we'll see if there's anything new, particularly here, since we are kind of recovering in the indices. In fact, let's go ahead and just pull up just so we have the banner just to kind of watch him here yeah, i mean still still down right, nasdaq, 163 russell one or two point: five, five s p and dow around this one point one eight one Point three four region here not down as much as they were pre-market boy. Oh boy pre-market was a little more nervous for folks but uh evergreen meltdown or the prime cause of the sell-down uh a lot of comparisons to lehman brothers, uh crypto falling. Hmm, let's see uh commodity futures yeah.

I i did see also that evergren uh has a big. What was it? I had a shot of this oh yeah. Here we go so uh: okay, china's total commodity supply, okay, so of china's total commodity supply. Its property sector consumes 40 of steel flow, 20 of copper flow, fifteen percent of aluminum zinc and ten percent of nickel, so uh chinese properties uh in real estate development, probably take up somewhere between five to twenty percent of global commodity supply.

So that could be leading to some pain, uh in commodities. Thanks to this evergrand issue as well, uh all right, wow, wow, very interesting market. Where is the dip that i can go by? I don't see it. Okay, so sideways on matterport looks like sideways on exp.

Turning green here on american airlines, uh 2.5 delta 1.7 blue apron, uh cardano uh back at 217., nice nice cardano bounce there very nice you've got uh piton, uh, barely piton, now flat zillow group, half percent yeah. No, no real, incredible major dips here. They're still talking about intensifying slide, i see a recovery. Do well just putting it out.

That's good, don't want to be too negative, that's good! Some things could happen. Jim tonight, airbnb! Yes, special announcement by brian chesky he's got something to talk about. I think it's about it landmark uh number of people who have used it and then clint carnwell. You want a hot stock beauty health.

This is a company that is chaired by brent saunders. Our old friend from allergan uh beauty's been uh a topic of discussion. Last couple of weeks, whether it's been amazon or anything else, jim, we got a lot uh a lot of wood to chop today. We look forward to tonight.

Indeed, fun show. Thank you. Mad money, 6 p.m. Eastern all, right always the pitch for the night show uh.

Look at this matterport here, i'm sorry, not matterport. This is mp material, mp material, this one rotating more in the direction of straight down. Yeah, let's see here 31.81, also not like a particularly grand discount, matterport 5.26 seems like a lot, but not when you put it into context, and that's what's so interesting about this market is when you really put some of these recent gains into context. They're, relatively minor, uh minor, sell downs, clever 8.22.

This one under 10 is a little bit more uh neo, let's zoom out on neo day chart on neo nia selling down a little bit more, although in may we got down to that 30 71. uh arkamoto trading down about four point. Forty uh four point: four five percent affirm um: where was it here? Honest company, a firm where's, the firm here we go, affirm yeah a firm's rising again. Look at that intraday.

Here you had your dip to about 108 and uh back to 112. Now end phase. You were at about 154 still about 154, now, tesla's still down about 3.51 uh lemonade sitting around that 70 bucks here, redfin proterra, huh, incredible market, just uh the the games it's holding on to i'm not sure whether to be impressed or to be nervous about the Follow-Up dip, but uh, it's incredible yeah somebody say lucid, went green. Is that true? I see oh yeah there.

It is look at that. Lucid went green! Oh my gosh. Look at that! Look at that nice run. It had here.

It's incredible incredible: what a recovery! What a recovery in this market i mean this is like the most emotional market. Ever it's fine with me, but uh, no by the dip opportunity, but i'll be patient. Um! All right cool! Let's see, go to the headlines again here on cnbc, all right, uh 1.13! On the dow, that's a recovery 1.27 on the s, p, 500. Still recovering yeah.

I mean they're, all red, but uh boy, oh boy, it's uh! This inc! You know this is this. Is the s p, so you got a little bit of recovery and then a sideways trade here makes you wonder if this is just uh a temporary balance and are we gon na sell down again or or or whatever people just wake up and like i ain't That bad by the dip anyway kind of incredible - let's see if i can get dow jones industrial average uh. Well, that's volatility, um yeah, it doesn't matter. Okay.

Let me see what uh market notes are on the terminal here: yeah, no, no dip opportunity! I know it's crazy. Oh wait hold on. What's this 76 on the national association of homebuilders wells fargo index, that's a slight beat and the first gain in three months. The street was looking for unchanged sentiment stood at 83 in september of last year and then set a record high of 90 last november.

It then dropped off dramatically when lumber prices, spiked and supply chain issues hampered construction. Price of lumber is now down sharply to about a quarter of its record high from last april. Builders do say: delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist. Now, if the index is three components, current sales conditions rose.

One point two: eighty two buyer traffic increased two points to sixty one and sales expectations in the next six months: steady at eighty one regionally on a three month. Average sentiment was still down everywhere, except in the midwest. That, of course, is where housing is most affordable. Morgan montano, like thank you, housing, affordability, that's going to be another big old issue.

Uh! That's that's uh! It's actually made me very interested in doubling down on real estate uh efforts, because it's just uh, i don't see housing getting cheaper anytime soon, unless of course, there's a rate change, but anyway uh very, very interesting. Just that uh. You know. There's talk here about uh market is worried about contagion from ever uh evergreen, but the problem is evergrant has been running for several months now, uh the problem.

The problem at evergrant has been going for several months now. Few expect this to be a china's lehman moment. An orderly debt restructuring instead of a messy bankruptcy of a company deeply connected in the chinese economy and financial markets remains the base case. If that's the case - and we do have some kind of restructuring, then the volatility spike that we're seeing here and sort of the sell-off that we've seen there bloomberg here are saying - maybe an overreaction.

I don't know i don't know uh still looking for uh, that by the dip opportunity, but boy, oh boy, uh, okay, so let's see what what what are you saying here get financial help from a fellow developer. The country's largest real estate, developer, known as country garden, is being quoted as saying that it's not impossible for the company to buy some of evergrands properties, so evergrand uh has been facing a test this week as to whether or not it's going to default um.