Folks, i kid you not. This is the stock market that will take absolutely any bit of good news and say that's it. All that is bad is over. We are going back to the moon now.

This is, of course, a good thing. If you own stocks, it's not the greatest thing if you are wanting to buy stocks or you are wanting cheaper prices. This is why, folks, we have been saying pretty consistently, with the exception of a few times pretty, because i would say about 80 percent of the time i say never squander a red opportunity and the reason for that is since march of 2020, the general rule of Thumb has been find, the dip seems to work and the reason it works is because this market looks for any bit of potential news to rally. Today we got the big merck u-turn, so this morning i kind of got ambushed by that news, because when i started my live stream, i didn't even know about that news.

Yet uh. So here's the thing this uh covert treatment is actually a pretty big deal. So far, uh at least in terms of what we can see: reducing hospitalizations uh by 50, potentially completely eliminating deaths on the basis of a study of about uh, 700 people, 14 hospitalizations, uh, half the uh uh. You know control, group, uh and and no deaths.

It's pretty pretty incredible the uh the question is, is how similar is this merck treatment uh a pill that you would take after uh you or contract covid? How similar is this to something like a rem, deserver right, a rem deserver is an antibody. Remember the the monoclonal antibody cocktail that donald trump got, even though most people didn't have access to it. Of course, donald trump got injected with multiple different monoclonal anti-body cocktails, which helped him go from a pretty dire state to fine and um. You know parading around uh outside walter, we read with the secret service which we covered.

All this live right, so uh the stock market is loving. This pill, like this, this pill, in my opinion, is more than a pill for covid. It is a it's an anxiety, relief pill, it is an antidepressant, it is a please, take this red pill and let stocks go to the moon for once, and that's essentially what's happening today and again. The reason this is happening is because we are removing anxiety from the marketplace and anytime we remove anxiety from the marketplace.

First thing that happens is people take their cash and plow it into the market volatility index down almost ten percent dow jones industrial up. One point: six, one percent: the s p is up one point: two: five percent: the nasdaq is a point, eight five percent, and it is all because of the little red appeal and we are even seeing a part rotation in the market which is interesting to pay Attention to a rotation, a specific rotation that we used to only see back in 2020, that rotation has heavily been broken apart in 2021, where we haven't really seen cohesiveness amongst recovery stocks versus other stocks. But today we actually do see a cohesiveness amongst recovery stocks, dave buster's up 9.12 you've got united airlines up 7.4 toast the payment processor for restaurants of six point. Seven one percent dutch pros six point: three: six: three percent delta up six point: five to five percent southwest five point: nine marriott: five: seven: five, american airlines, norwegian cruise lines; cheesecake you get the idea here.

Yet, let's keep going just in case you don't uber. Five percent disney 4.27 carnival american express gap. Mgm cinemark. Do you see where i'm going? Yet? All of these stocks are well over three percent today, booking holdings.

Does it ring a bell yet airbnb win simon property group, the one of the largest mall operators in the world anything yet recovery stocks are rallying on this news because it's not just about the covet delta variant in cases that we have now it's about is extinguishing Fear this pill is kind of like taking a uh a plane like a boeing 737 that puts out fires and it's loaded with foam or like that red powder or whatever they they drop into fire areas and they're, putting this down as like a preventative fire retardant. That's what this red pill is. Why? Because you still have recovery stocks freaking out over the potential, that delta is going to absolutely destroy christmas and nobody wants christmas to be destroyed. First of all, people don't want to die.

Okay, second of all, people who don't want the vaccine are like wait, a minute you telling me. If i get coven, then i can take something that's going to prevent me from dying hell. Yeah sign me up. I don't need to get the facts anymore.

That's in my opinion, literally what this pill will do for the anti-vaxx crowd, which good at least they have an option right uh, but it will also help the broader market. Go wait a minute this. This right here is going to be the solution for making sure delta is not santa claus this year or the grinch. I should say: that's better, the grinch okay.

We don't want to grinch this here, so uh this is uh. This is actually very good news. Uh, obviously, we need uh fda approval for this thing, things in phase three trials - i would imagine uh fda approvals - would be expedited and they'll probably be many cases of compassionate use as well, which compassionate use is essentially the opportunity to uh provide folks medication when they Are essentially very likely to die from covid and they can take something - that's not technically approved yet because they would probably die otherwise. So this is good, the other thing, and you cannot you can't.

I don't want to say this uh. You can't overstate how important this is. Uh. The pill is only necessary for people who actually got sick.

That's even better. You don't have to vaccinate everyone. You don't have to give the red pill to everyone. Red pill is not a vaccine.

You don't have to give it to everyone, it's just hey. Whoever gets sick. We got a little red pill for you, so in case you're wondering why the 10-year treasuries are falling. Yields are falling in case you're wondering why recovery stocks are going up, uh and what's crazy, is you've even got some some uh other things going up here as well.

Uh like crypto, uh crypto, is loving. This news absolutely loving this news, so you got the miners going up. You got um up work up, which is totally a stay-at-home stock. What what this pill is doing is more than just pumping up recovery stocks.

It is saying to the market. Folks fear not. We are going to get through this we're in 2021 and we can defeat the challenges we face. Every grand is not going to be a big deal.

That's that's what the market's trying to is starting to think right now, okay, now i'm not making that guarantee. I think evergreen is something we absolutely have to pay attention to, but i have said in many many videos on this channel. I don't think that ever grant is going to be a big deal. I think the fear of ever grant is going to be more bad.

Uh and the fear of ever grant has led to this crypto disaster that we've seen uh and and i suppose, by crypto disaster. You know when you zoom out it's not that big of a deal but uh, but we know that that's how crypto works, but anyway we went from. You know this beautiful rally of like 53 000 to uh to essentially down to almost to our support line here. At just under forty two thousand dollars, uh and and broad-based sell-off in cryptocurrencies, i actually sold my crypto just to re-buy it lower because i'm like yo this evergreen stuff's gon na be a disaster.

Duh, it kind of was the fear of it was, but that was the point. This is why, as soon as the fear of that hit an inflection point where it's like, okay, this fear is going away the last three days, not today, i've been buying the dip. Like crazy and i've been buying the dip like crazy, because i realized that fear is mostly overblown that our fears might be level 100 when reality is like level 10 bad, that's, usually how it is now uh, even folks that was even true in the great recession In the great recession, fear was so mega. Freaking high people are like this was one of the first places i learned.

What not to do is like at the bottom of the market. My dad's, like, oh, my 401ks, god, the hell. That's it sell everything. It's like that, you just paper-handed your retirement, oh man, um anyway, so uh look.

Sometimes you you look at what not to do right, but anyway, this is a beautiful, beautiful thing for markets. It's a beautiful thing. Uh for for uh people, it's a beautiful thing for humanity. It restores a lot of faith uh in uh in medicine that i think all of us should have, because i think a lot of faith has been lost.

You know uh uh, you know what do they call it? Mr, the the fouchy jab. You know people don't want to get the fouchy vaccine or whatever you know like this, there's been so much. It's so nice that now it's like hey, okay, you guys fight about the vax. In the meantime, let's prevent people from dying over here.

With this pill. That's wonderful! Now i still encourage vaccinations, but i also believe in individuals, uh right to choose uh and uh. Hey look this this pill is such a wonderful, wonderful as long as it ends up getting improved, a wonderful, wonderful, uh, backup, choice, uh and uh. I love it.

I really love it and i believe that this moment today, uh over and starting well continuing over the next two weeks uh. Let me rephrase that continuing over the next two weeks, we still have uncertainties left in the market. Okay: let's make this extremely crystal f and clear: okay, you still have a debt ceiling crisis coming up on uh october 18th. Now between you and me, it's a bunch of bull crap, like the u.s government, ain't gon na default, like i think the odds of that are like one percent.

Okay, i think it's not going to happen, so don't worry about it. In my opinion, okay, my opinion. It's not a big freaking deal. It's going to get handled, uh, okay, so then you've got the infrastructure package.

We're gon na get something very likely between one and a half, probably closer to like two and a half uh to three trillion dollars. My guess uh and - and i expect that all to be done by october 15th, but guess what else i expect to be done by october 15th. I expect inflation numbers to come in inflecting to the downside. Finally, now a little bit, it's not going to be like a a huge drop, but we're going to see that curve is my expectation that curve is going to be, in my opinion, well received by the market.

I'm hopeful that the jobs data comes in moderately strong. We don't want it to be super weak, although super weak could lead to more tapering, but then you also get a sell-off, because then people wonder, is the economy fundamentally weakening too much? I don't really buy the argument that the economy is fundamentally weakening. I think the economy is slapped in the face and anchored uh by it's kind of like this anchor that you're dragging around and it reaches around and slaps you in the face. It's like supply chains freight.

I just want to mess with china. You know like, like it's it's stupid, the fears that we have in this market right now, if you think about it, are utterly stupid. So china pulled the rug on property developers and you turned on the amount of debt that they want companies to have just like that, because they felt like it, despite the fact that they were encouraging people to take on companies to take on so much debt to Build housing because they needed housing. Now they realize wow.

We have too much housing and too much debt. Well, let's make the greedy corporations pay for our stupid encouragements. You know like these. These, in my opinion, are, are not uh like crisis mode scenarios that we face here.

I'm i'm not devastated by uh the outlook that we face. The stagflation arguments that i've seen are absolute stupid, absolutely stupid. Almost all the fear-mongering youtube channels that i see end up. Uh spewing, i shouldn't say almost all because i don't i don't want to make that implication, because i don't watch almost all of them.

I rarely watch the other channels uh, but uh. For example, somebody sent me a video the other day and they're like kevin kevin. This evergrand crisis - oh my gosh blackrock and fidelity they're gon na collapse. They have a quarter of all their assets, exposed to chinese real estate and and oh my gosh they're.

Those are like four and nine trillion. Dollar funds we're screwed and i'm like bro dawg, the the person who made the video was referring to an article that referred to a specific bond within these four to nine trillion dollar funds. Those funds themselves are only like two to four billion dollar assets which compared to the fund is, is a fraction of a tenth of one percent uh and of that junk bond fund. The 25 is exposed to chinese real estate.

Why? Because interest rates are higher there because it's a risk and it's garbage there's a reason why junk bonds are called junk bonds. It's because when people invest in high-yield stuff and they get burned, the the institutional investors or the investors who who invest in like quality companies and aaa rated debt, are like uh yeah. That's why i don't go there. You know so look me, i'm happy uh.

I i don't love buying a run-up, so i haven't bought anything on this run-up i've been buying the dip. I've been saying it day after day after day after day, i'm very very happy about that uh. Now, let's go ahead and hop back on over to what the heck is going on on a minute-by-minute chart right after i mentioned that if you like this presentation so far make sure to hit that subscribe. Button.

Tell me like that. That's your best way to tell me and get yourself up to seventy dollars with public.com by going to metcalf.com public sign up and get yourself up to seventy dollars of a free stock uh, it could be a partial share of tesla partial share of apple check. It out met kevin.com public, okay, so rant over cool. Let's now uh, let's now get into uh what we actually have here.

So what we have is uh a lot of green uh. There is some red in the market, but it's like who freaking cares. Um well i'll, see you all right. So what we have here is: let's go look at the red iron net.

Okay, so moment oh lordstown gets smoked um. There was something about uh lordstown motors selling their. I can't remembering this morning. I was very, very very tired this morning, but anyway lordstown motors uh, i think they sold to like foxconn or something like that.

Their facility uh foxconn, will build evs for lordstown motors and fisker and fisker. Oh wow yeah. I mean that's just a sign that they couldn't figure the manufacturing out. You know, elon musk is laughing his butt off right now going you all thought it was easy.

That's uh yeah anyway. That's that's the way it works. Uh, camber momentum, going away. You know modernist selling off like this is not a surprise.

Uh this this is uh like. Basically, the remaining crowd of people who should be getting vaccinated are gon na now go. Thank you red pill. F off uh joe biden arrives on capitol hill to meet with house democrats.

Yeah. Good luck, yeah talk to joe manchin too, unless of course, he's gon na try to get the progressives to roll on that one trillion dollar plan. That might be what he's doing uh so anyway, we do have a little bit of red here. Look at that uh! Oh lemonade! Hmm, you know what is interesting to me is uh.

I think that uh, if, if we're right about this on the market and no guarantees, okay, no guarantees but remember how the last few days the spy crashed into the close okay. This is important. Watch this all right, so look crash into the close right. Thanks to fund outflows, you crash past the low of the day, the previous low of the day crash into the close crash past or at uh the the low within the day crash past or at the low of the day right.

Those are the last three days hold on. Let me see if we also have monday in here. This is monday right, i don't know hold on with the exception of that anomaly over there pretty much again falling into the close literally every single day this week. Folks, four out of four days this week so far, the s p 500 has crashed in the last 10 minutes.

However, folks that is the representation of fund outflows, it's people pissing themselves because they're little babies they're little babies who are like. Oh, my gosh stocks are down, i'm losing so much money. Man. If i had to work for this, it's gon na.

Take me this many hours to make my money back and oh mommy, my area hurts and then they sell and when people sell they, the funds have no choice but to liquidate stocks. It's that simple institutions, don't want a weenie baby. It's people, it's the clients. It's the kooky clients that are like i want out.

I can't handle it, it's like! Well, that's what you hired us for yeah. Well, i don't trust you anymore. Our portfolio is red. Okay, see ya, it's so dumb, it's so dumb.

Ah, so anyway, i believe there is a potential, the s p 500 today, because the market is green, it's very green and people are like. Oh stocks are up. That must be a good time to invest when keep in mind as stocks go up. You are actually increasing your risk in the stock market.

When stocks are red, you are decreasing your risk. If i love lemonade the insurance company, then i can decrease my risk by taking a day like today when it's down 3.86 and going yo. This is exactly the time for me to say 1000 stocks thing or shares. Thank you very much bye see ya boom.

I got ta send an alert on that uh in the stocks of psychology. Your money group link down below which you can join for a one-time payment and get unlimited access to all of my alerts. Uh anyway i'll be right. There really quick, so uh yeah.

Look, i wouldn't be surprised uh if the s p 500, it actually rallies into the close, no guarantees, but if okay, this is the if, if the s p 500 rallies into the close. What is that a signal of it is a signal of the market and people buying the not dip they're buying the up uh and that's what people do? That's, why generally uh people underperform the market, because your emotions to get so large and overwhelming for them? Oh, my gosh, we'll see, and so far so far, i'm exactly right and guess what secret between you and me it ain't that freaking hard it's intuitive. Now it could still fall, but in my opinion it is intuitive that we should go up into the clothes if it goes down. I don't care because i'll buy, but that's my guess, we'll see we'll see how much selling there is uh, so it'll be very fascinating to see.

I do expect high volatility into the clothes, though so we'll see some greens and reds. The big question is the big big big question is: okay: are we going to go anywhere near 427 today, which would be consistent with the pattern of previous days and so far the answer looks like no. Even though we have volatility into the close we're stable, we'll see, though we got five minutes, a lot can happen. Let's back off that chart jump on over to something else, we'll keep an eye on that and see what happens here.

Let's see what's happening in crypto, crypto has not been as sensitive to uh closing or openings as it sometimes is uh it as actually on the minute chart here, had a nice rally. I did buy a lot, it's it's so funny. It's crazy hold on a sec. Where did i say it? You got to see this okay.

This is great uh. Where did i say it? I said it uh. Okay, let's see here: okay, okay, yeah, yeah, here see. Look at this! This was 929 added.

40K bitcoin. 75K ethereum 35 000 ada slightly more invested in crypto than i was a week ago. Remember i had sold with the ever grand contagion, fear reducing my exposure, but anyway um uh yeah i this was just this was two days ago as i'm like i'm, expecting a u-turn here and uh. This was at like bitcoin, like 42 000 or like 42 800, or something like that and uh.

You know now we're at 48. 000 uh. You know this this massive massive, these sort of massive bumps here. This was around the time over here, uh that i bought somewhere around.

I want to say the uh, the 200-day moving average here i didn't time perfectly at the bottom, but i was watching this and i saw the catalyst and uh anyway. It was over here that i that i last bought in, and so it just surprised me it's it's consistent with with our expectations for fear. Evaporating, because, remember folks, fear is, is um a short-term phenomenon. You can't be fearful forever.

Humans have too much hope programmed into them to be fearful forever. The only people who are fearful forever are fear-mongering youtube channels that have to be fearful forever, because they've attracted a base of viewers who only watch their videos and share their videos when they say the next launch crash is coming to you with all the scary, b-roll And stuff like that, whatever and that's going to spread to the next, whatever keep doing your fear mongering uh, it's it's nuts, so anyway, okay! So how are we doing uh, upstart and down five point? Seven percent. We do have i'm gon na take a peek here again at the s p. 500.

In a moment, we've got lemonade down three point: four: five percent we've got ta lucid down. Three percent watching lucid here for potential um for potential dip, buy restoration hardware uh falling into the close, not a surprise that some of the stay-at-home stocks would fall a little bit. I'm surprised. Gilead is not down more uh with its uh rem deservier drug uh, which was that anti uh body monoclonal monoclonal antibody cocktail, um uh, which obviously this red pill would would have uh, be, in my opinion, be competitive against.

So what else do we have here? Well, that's actually interesting walgreens down a little bit. That makes sense. If, because look, if everybody has to get vaccinated and they have to get boosters in walgreens, then they go in if you don't have to, because you could just take the pill when and if you get covered well, crap so walgreens wouldn't be surprised to see a Trend on that one uh or uh docusign here docusign, i like this. I like this right here, uh yeah there you go.

Look charles freaking nails. It can't be fearful forever, because people get bored in life goes on bingo, good job uh, but anyway. This is. This.

Is nice over here you got yourself a uh, you you're almost at april pricing here on docusign, it's just like oh ooh april pricing, but still like it's it's a nice rotation on the downside. This is a stay at home play, though so we'll see if it continues to rotate down. Nvidia is pretty flat uh and it's certainly given up a lot of its uh enthusiasm here, uh more recently, so um keep an eye on this. Okay.

How did the spy do, let's see, did it close, higher or lower uh? Oh got to go to the minute chart cause. We got the bell coming up. Oh, oh, it's still doing a little bit now it's nowhere near the sell-off. So we broke the pattern.

We did break the pattern. You still had a little bit of selling pressure going into the end, but nowhere near the selloffs we had before. Let's listen to the belt here. Just dipping into the red energy is still by far the outperforming sector, along with communication services, and now that gain three-quarters of a percent and small cash start.

The quarter in the red in the green excuse me up 1.7. The biggest one here we go folks look at that. The dow jones up 1.43 s p 500, 1.15, nasdaq, 0.82 of the russell at 1.69. Okay, let's take a look at how the s p.

500. Close. So remember you watch this video. We said every day this week the s p 500 closed as low as the previous low of the day.

Big oops here didn't happen. Today did not happen today. It said we rallied off the low. Yes, we had volatility at the end of the day, but that's a duh, because funds are buying and selling right at the end of the day.

Look at the volatility at the close. This makes sense. However, this little this fluctuation here smooths out, go to go to the 30-minute chart here. Folks, you had your dip.

You never revisited that dip and you can't say that's staying flat at the end or a little bit is. Is uh inconsistent with the messaging here? Why? Because look at this folks, okay, dip touch or break the low of the of the present day, uh dip touch or break the low of uh the day right. The last two days same thing here: dip up dip to go to the lows earlier in the day. Uh same thing, i have to zoom out a little bit with the exception of this bar.

This bar on monday was insane uh, but i think that was also only like a minute bar hold on a second. I want to see that that bar was weird, because it was true on thursday it was true on wednesday. It was true on tuesday. This right here was just like.

I feel like a temporary like computer glitch, or something like that, because look it's only a minute. Candlestick, so it's really screwing what the uh the chart looks like, but if you get rid of this like almost computer glitch here or whatever the hell, that is, if you get rid of that, the lows of the day are: let's see here the lows of the Day are about 142 right here and that's almost what you touched over here. So it's consistent minus this, like insane like computer glitch here, so for this entire week we have closed at a relatively similar price to the low point of the day, removing that computer glitch today the opposite was completely true. That is a strong signal, in my opinion that over this weekend, people are gon na.

You know chillax a little bit about all this evergreen fear and fugazi, and food they're gon na potentially throw their money back into cryptos, throw their money back into the stock market. Next week we're gon na get positive catalysts on congressional news. I'm telling you as fear evaporates prices go up. That is my strong expectation here uh and i'm very very happy that there was absolutely zero paper handing during this.

There was good pricing. During this there. There was, there was good trading during this lower cost basis. Uh there was by the dipping during this i'm very happy about that, and so the psychology right on point during the last two weeks here we'll see how it plays out over the next two weeks.

Uh, of course, there could always be some other crazy fear catalyst, but look at how things ended up folks. Sun pass the sun power. Can okay, i still don't understand what happened with sun power. I think it just got upgraded.

I i don't remember we covered this very briefly this morning, but i don't understand i'm going to pull it up, really quick, uh, okay! Here, let's get it really quick: individual company news, sun power following the launch of sun power 20 by 20 or 25 by 25. Oh right join the s p mid cap 400. That's right! That's right! Okay, yeah! Oh well! Good! Good! For sun power! That's part of our pi in mechanic.com solar, but anyway uh. Okay! Let's see here wait until the tesla numbers come out.

When do they come out? Uh, don't they usually come out monday? I don't think they they usually come out same day. I mean, maybe maybe that that'd be cool. I'm down to watch that uh. All right.

Uh give me a second here: uh, okay, all right, okay! Oh, where was i i don't remember where i was uh tesla tesla numbers, oh victor's, saying tesla numbers will come out tomorrow morning: uh he never wanted to test the bull run. So much after you saw chamoth paper hand, tila uh sell out of tesla. You know in our discord, we have uh the chamath paper hand icon. Where is it uh? It's it's one of the emojis there there hold on.

Let me scroll up. Okay, there. It's right above my head, look right here there there you see that that is chamath. Uh with um toilet paper, hands um; no, i'm gon na sell the stocks i pumped up, i pumped tesla and now i'm going to sell out on everyone.

Oh i pumped virgin galactic and now i'm going to sell out. Oh no send out the vast majority of my shares and u-turn while the market's turning red - oh no anyway, where were we like at least be a little bit more upfront uh in like what you're doing you know like it'd, be one thing like look? I think it would be respectable if chamath paper hand tila when it said hey, i want to give everybody a heads up. I've got a new fund that, because he doesn't say this, it's just implications. Sometimes he kind of alludes to it.

But look here's the thing. Okay, i'm gon na two-part this okay. Let me start with part one, because it's more interesting chamath told us one of the one. While it was happening.

One of the reasons he had to sell virgin galactic was because the bank told him to, in other words, the guy's leveraged up way too much he's got too much margin and it's no freaking surprise that when the market goes red, mr chum off paper and tila Has to sell because he's got too much debt he's wanting everybody to know. Ah, look how much money i have look, how much money have and it's all just debt. Okay, it's obviously not all going to be dead. Okay, i'm not trying to take that away from him.

Uh, you know he's got lots of money. Okay, he's done some great things, but let's be real, there's a reason why he tends to make these oh yeah. I have to shell for a different fund decisions when the market's panicking. He did that in february, with virgin galactic he's doing it now with tesla.

Okay, like it's, it's so consistent, oh no, the market's going down and i'm so much in debt. I must liquidate something and then i'll just uh, oh yeah, i'm starting a new fund. Okay! Well, where is that? Where is that fund? What is the investment? Oh, oh! You don't have it yet! Oh right right! Yes, so it was margin, okay, all right, whatever um! Oh play nice kevin. What what's he gon na do block me on twitter? Oh man, uh in case you don't get that reference here hold on.

Let me go to um chamoth. I got ta actually hold on a sec uh, oh yep, okay, here we go and so i'm logged in okay, i'm logged into twitter, i just checked, and now now all i'm gon na do all i'm gon na do here is type in chamath twitter and when I click on this and go here. How much worse can it get oh gosh who cares baby? I have many times tried to apologize for asking him why he paper-handed virgin galactic, but i didn't know a billionaire had such thin skin that he couldn't stand up to somebody asking him why he paper-handed virgin galactic. That's sad uh, i'm just gon na block everybody who's mean to me in the comments.

That's it block everyone. Oh my gosh, okay, uh, and to be fair, okay, full disclaimer. We do not know all of the details around uh. What chamoth paper hantila is up to uh.

Obviously i respect some things that he's done. I just think he's got some thin skin and i think it'd be uh big of him to actually stand in front of his audience. Uh, because he's he's had a lot of uh loyal fans, i think he's losing a lot of loyal fans. I think it would be big of him, like big boy like wake up and do so to to just make a video do an interview with somebody.

It doesn't have to be. I don't care, stand in front of some stand in front of your audience and go hey folks. I just want to be transparent. Yes, i use margin, but i do that to create great funds.

Here's what i'm working on right now. I can't give you all the details, but here's what i'm working on like at least tell us something. This is why we have the emoji for paper hands. Oh yeah, yeah, all right! What's another one, let's say give me another topic.

What what else should i rip on today? This has been a great day so far uh i mean that's. This is this live stream so far has been like three videos in one uh sells after pumping yeah stream yard, yo michael berry, michael burry should interview chamas. No, no, no, no you! You need to have opposites uh, not not uh, not two babies. I i can't folks, i can't make this stuff up.

Okay, somebody else mentions michael burrie. Okay, wait for it, wait for it go to google twitter cassandra because for some reason cassandra is michael burry, whatever uh. I click on this twitter account. Oh goddammit, i sent him an eggplant, that's it where was it eggplant emoji? Let me see if i could find the tweet, because if i do this and then go twitter cassandra at real meat, kevin eggplant, um twitter, no, ah google used to have it indexed.

I basically i sent him an eggplant. I sent him an eggplant emoji and i think google removed it from the index, but after it was still a uh, it was still there. Cassandra is a greek goddess of prophecy. Oh that's cute at least the well.

Let's put it this way, where's cassandra today, anyway. Sorry, that's mean sorry, sorry, greeks, okay, so um, yeah, okay, what else we got uh so uh, but i'm worried about going into margin on this place. How concerned, should i be about much yeah? This is not the market to go into margin on. In my opinion, um, you know this is a little misleading.

By the way you can't say that uh, i'm blocked by a lot of billionaires when i'm blocked by two and uh. I also speak my mind and i'm not a simp for these people, because they're just humans as well, who happen to be in the right place at the right time. Yes had experiences in a certain skill set and the balls to do something. I give them credit for that, a lot of credit for that, but i don't give them credit for being weenie babies who get all nervous uh when, when somebody asks a question or sends an eggplant emoji try to buy the dips yeah, i would not go into Margin in this market, i have zero margin.

Uh, i don't want any margin. This is just not the market for for margin. In my opinion, i think that if you want exposure to leverage, you could consider certain option contracts uh, i i don't. I wouldn't necessarily uh encourage uh.

You know something too crazy, like maybe go in the money. Calls if you really wanted to, but i generally don't support uh calls unless we expect volatility to go up again, uh all right. Well, let's see uh. Oh, no, i've been blocked by newsome, not on twitter, but in person.

I i got worse from from him. He see. Newsome news is a politician, so at least chamoth and michael bury will block you to your face. Gavin newsom will have facebook.

Try to delete your posts from instagram. Gavin newsom will have like will get his cops to ban you from his events. That is behind the scenes shade. That's even more scummy uh, exactly chris, okay, so uh anyway, uh people just hate the truth.

It's hard, it's so hard, uh, okay, so holiday mining is doing great. How what's going on in after hours. Let's look, let's look at the after hours. Shall we all right? So we've got uh hippo holdings up yay 2.17 percent matterport uh went down about 1.43 i'd like to see a little bit more pain here at matterport uh, really down to that 15 again would be we.

I don't know if we'll get there, especially now that we're starting to get a little bit of a u-turn in in that euphoric element, uh see. Look at this. The reason peloton is actually up on a red pill day like today with the merc pail news uh. You know when you consider the after hours, because it's down point four, but it's not 0.52 here it is really because it's uh it might be a sign of the bleeding stopping and a rotation coming uh in just broader markets.

Our komodo dash bros expi uh blah blah blah. Okay, what's news this rebecca, i know i bought some. I bought some dudes yesterday. I bought some dudes yesterday and i like it.

No, i don't think apple was, is a must buy right now, um yeah, i i i mean i like apple. Don't get me wrong about that. I, like apple, a lot, but i've got exposure to it. I'm not like jumping up and down about like powering more in but uh, i'm i'm not offended by that.

I would do it if somebody's like kevin. You have to pick a stock right now. That's a fang stock! Well, probably, google uh and then it'd probably be apple yeah. How? How how will higher interest rates impact capex spending in tech? Oh dude, they're literally blowing all the freaking money they can right now because they expect rights to go up.

They expect the cheap funny money to go away, so i'm not so worried about it. Uh, because i think they're gon na have already blown their money as a greek person, i'm incredibly not offended. Thank you. Uh.

Let's see, oh thanks blue is that blue or blue. I think that's blau, because u, with the dot dot is a? U so i'm pretty sure that's blau yeah! I think i'm right about that. Anyway. The truth is never welcomed around the dishonest.

That's a great line! Uh! No, my opposition to margin is uh. What it does to your psyche when the market falls, when the market falls and you're in margin, you do what chamath does and you paper hand when the market falls and you're, not in margin. You buy the dip because you're not worried about that increasing exposure to risk. I'm telling you chris barron's is freaking.

Amazing buy the paper. You will love, it get the actual hard paper on saturdays. It's so good, doug all right. What else am i supposed to do? Now, all right, i guess we could go look at uh barons.

That's right can't touch this when you're at zero percent margin, that's right, uh all right. So what else do we have today? I don't know uh all right. Let's see here, oh yeah, okay, all right! So um, let's look at barons a little bit economist, very, very good, too yeah. Do i get that on my fax machine? No, they throw it in front of your door.

See. Have you all ever seen something like this? These are. These are um papers with words written on them and charts and things you can feel and and look what you could do on this. It's so cool you can take one of these things and you can like circle things.

That's great. I love it. Okay, anyway, uh and then make sure to recycle it. Okay.

So where are we here? Let's see here, okay, game changer agreed stocks are higher after strong economic data. What data i don't know i couldn't get into smile direct, i don't know, maybe maybe that'll change, but anyway uh. How do you control f? Well, see the beautiful thing? Is you don't have to control fine because uh it doesn't change. Like that's one of the reasons i still get, the paper is because, when you go to like the front page of the wall street journal, this stupid thing changes all the time throughout the day, and so it's like you're constantly getting fed only the most click-baity stuff.

Uh at the front, and then you never get the stuff. That's like you know, deep in the uh in the uh, the columns. You know, zoom enters an awkward pause like how, when, when is that gon na be on the front page of the wall journal? It's not um anyway, so come on. It always signs me out.

That's my one gripe with barons and bloomberg bloomberg financial times wall street bets or barons um pick three bloomberg financial times and barons. Look i i support the whole wall. Street bet movement uh. I i think the forum is great, i think uh.

There are a lot of cases where there's some cool dd that comes out on there uh. I just you know. If, if you want to filter to only dd, you could go to like seeking alpha uh, and it it basically is - is just dd without without the yolos and the anxiety and the drama, although that is entertaining, don't get me wrong. Okay, that's fine! It's fine! That was up here, merc rises on covet pill and what else is happening in the stock market today, yeah right well.

Are they just giving us a summary here? Oh here, manufacturing data is starting to turn around whoa wait a second here. I thought the economy was slowing, that's at least what consumer confidence tells us. In fact, let me tell you this folks. I am sick and freaking tired of hearing reports about what consumers think.

Okay, if you watch this channel, you know the point of this channel is to basically tell you how not to act like a consumer, and so this is why i get kind of pissed when when people are like, oh, my goodness, consumer confidence is down well yeah. It's down because you'll feel for a little breathers and then, as soon as the stock market goes green again, oh consumer confidence is up again. It is a lagging stupid, dumb indicator. It's the same thing with consumer expectations for inflation.

When inflation is high, consumers are like, oh man, we're gon na have bad inflation for like three years, we're all screwed man, oh, what am i gon na? Do it's all lagging it's so bad because then, as soon as inflation starts going down, it's like oh yeah, this place should be bad. We got ta do that consumer numbers screw that what i want is stuff like this manufacturing data. Uh see. Look at this.

She cited that economic data has been surprisingly strong recently after a period during the summer when data was surprisingly poor, personal income in august rose 0.2 in august uh, we start having the child tax credit yeah. We started having the child tax credit there good in line with expectations. Personal spending increased 0.8. Better than expected.

Investors want to see that spending remain healthy, well, yeah, uh, more economically sensitive or cyclical stocks were performing better on u.s economic data. The institute for supply managers index rose 61.1 higher than the expected reading of 59.5. Remember a reading above 50 is a reading of growth. Uh then we've got over.

Inflationary pressure will be more persistent in 2022. With this citigroup economist, higher inflation is eating into income. Whatever we already know that food prices went up a third uh thanks to the united nations index on inflation, investors will be closely watching the september jobs report got it. Inflation could weigh.

Of course this was actually not a good article. There was a very little information in this. I thought we were going to get some more data. We got one line on on really data and there was that you know manufacturing supply, uh data piece.

That's boring house expected to vote on uh infrastructure friday after delays. Well, that'll be interesting, well biden's, meeting with them right now. Uh he's probably gon na do some kind of like get this done for me. No, that sounds too bill.

Clinton-Ish uh! Well, i'm not gon na. Do an accident uh get this done basically and then then we'll make sure to get the three and a half trillion dollar thing done after that, because he just needs progressives to be on board. Get this done and then then, once he gets progressives on board to roll and go for this bill, then he can actually negotiate with kirsten cinema and joe manchin, which he's having trouble doing right now holiday supply. Oh i like how look at this is funny.

I like how, when it's a short read, they put how many minutes it's gon na. Take you to read it like three minutes to read this uh or one minute to read it or two minutes to read it or one minute to read it. But if it's a long read they don't tell you how long they just say it's long all right! Somebody goes the ads imply you're ready to retire. Well, that's because they're investing in barons - i bet you.

The average age of a baron's reader is like 50 to 60. average age barrens readership. Let's see, let's see 50 freaking for 90.8 percent mail, but look at that average person see folks. You want to roll with the with the money boys.

There you go. Average personal income, 282 000 average household net worth 2.9 million. Let's go, i told you this: is it ain't, i'm not going to dis other platforms? This is a very good platform and i'm not paid by them either uh but yeah nailed it holiday supply chain. Fears are overblown what investors and shoppers needs now kathy wood reads this as well: she's, one of the like 9.2 percent of women who actually reads parents.

How do i know that? Because i read barons on saturday and then kathy wood goes into interviews on mondays and sometimes i'm like gosh. That sounds awfully familiar to something i just read in parents. Sorry, that's mean i'm not trying to discredit kathy. I love kathy.

I've just had that feeling. A couple times i could be wrong anyway, uh all right, so some person recently discovered a hot seller for christmas. I posted these cute little scooters on instagram, uh seller of uh. Whatever stuff the likes were piling up and people were headed to the site.

What is this about? Supply chain? Fears are overblown, okay got it uh the metal, push scooters, oh by the way i will say before i read this article that i do think it is very possible okay - and this is important as well, for companies like end phase for retailers, for amazon, for consumerism. For cars, whatever okay, i believe that the supply chain shortages are actually going to be at peak insanity now, okay, why would i say that? Why wouldn't supply chain shortages be at peak insanity in november right before the christmas holiday season? Because, folks, let me ask you this: if you are a business owner, are you going to sit around in august going? Oh man, the supply chain issues are a big issue and freight's taking a lot longer. You know i should procrastinate my christmas ordering to november. No, that kind of thinking is going to lead you to go bankrupt instead, you're going to order all your crap well in advance and you're going to store it you're, better off, buying more warehousing space and making sure you never run out of product again and - and You get rid of just in time inventory because of the fragility of our supply chain system.

Just in time, inventory is the easiest picture i think of is with just-in-time. Inventory is let's say, you're assembling a car and the car is done, the axles are in you. Just need to throw the wheels on the best case scenario for the most efficient corporation ever is the dude who's like okay, the car's here, i'm ready for the wheels now turns around and here's fedex going here. Are your wheels, sir? That's just in time inventory, because now you didn't have to store it long.

You didn't have to inventory. You didn't have to deal with theft and decay, uh depreciation of the product right, that's just the time inventory, but uh and that's kind of what we had always been heading to with capitalism, because very efficient lowers costs. The problem with that is as soon as you have supply chain issues you know now you go. I am ready for my wheel, oh no.

I have to wait eight weeks for it right, that's worse than just storing it so uh. I believe that uh the supply chain issues could actually be at a precipice right now that supply chain issues, while i expect them to persist throughout 2022, will also start inflecting down, along with inflation, starting to inflect down, because suppliers and merchants are trying to stock up Before the holidays, duh uh - that's common sense, ah all right! So where were we all right, metal scooters? Whatever? I don't care. I just want to hear the financial stuff here: factory, okay, here's some factory founded by some brother-in-laws - oh my gosh. This is why this article is long because they're going to tell me a whole story: uh, okay, okay, okay, i had to make a decision.

Last week he said of supplying u.s sellers with more scooters for christmas. It's too late see it's already too late. I expected that december outages of hit toys are nothing new. This year could see more shortfalls than most judging by 88 vessels backed up near an important california port complex, but predictions of holiday sales strangled by supply chain.

Havoc. Uh think charlie brown, christmas trees, surrounded by few boxes and bows looked decidedly overblown. This is interesting. I haven't read this, yet it was fascinating.

So far, in late spring, barons reported on a seemingly everything shortage set off by abrupt pandemic shifts in consumer spending, combined with company miscalculations and freak events. The everything shortages here i remember, reading that one uh now our conversations with retailers, manufacturers, shippers and wall street forecasters indicate that businesses are learning to cope with the bottlenecks which will largely ease next year, albeit slowly. Virus trends have taken a promising turn in recent weeks. Critical manufacturing centers are reopening.

Consumers are only slowly returning to spending on experiences after a huge shift in preference towards household goods, but that reversal will continue to pick up as new coveted cases fall and vaccines become available for children. That is actually interesting. So, in addition to my argument, which they have not mentioned my argument yet which my argument i think, is very very powerful - that you're going to load up on inventory prior to the holiday season. But in addition to that they're saying: hey, look people, and this is a kathy woody, an argument as well.

People already bought the crap that they wanted. People already bought their level 99 coffee, mug people already bought. Is it this one? Yeah people already bought wait for it, wait for it. People already bought their spy is falling shirt right below.

Where the little video plays on your youtube channel. You can click buy on it. People already got their stuff now, it's time to uh, spend on experiences. So uh, okay, let's see here many of our savvy retailers and importers advance let's go see.

What are we talking about here? Folks, come on it's common sense, many of our savvy retailers and importers advanced their orders, we're starting. We started seeing christmas goods arrive on our shores back in june ho ho. That's even earlier than i expected, my goodness nailed it normally. That arrival would take place at the end of august, beginning of september nice.

Large retailers, with sophisticated supply chains like walmart target costco, will continue to thrive as transportation brokers like xbo logistics, which can help level the field for smaller companies uh. What can, as will brokers like xpo, got it toy giants? Mattel and hasbro will have a holiday edge over smaller rivals for shoppers. Xbox one gaming consoles will be easier to come by than playstation fives video game publishers, okay, whatever inflation, which has lately spiked in uh, a rise in bond yields from barely precipit uh perceptible levels. Uh to almost mentionable ones could remain elevated.

Okay, so basically, hey look uh. The 10-year treasury was super low, spiked up, but it only spiked up a little bit. You know to that 1.48 level. Right now - and maybe we'll remain flat here, but we don't actually expect it to continue skyrocketing uh.

Okay, let's see here, labor markets remain tight, higher pay and prices for manufacturers, good manufactured goods will stick, but overall inflation is likely to slow to unalarming levels next year. All told fourth quarter, mirth estimates appear to be beatable. The heck is that mirth meyer, whatever amusement what i have no idea: uh, okay, whatever the cause for shortage since the start of the pandemic, have been many and varied, but they fall into few groups. A handful were true one-offs, like the march grounding of a ship that blocked the suez canal, which carries 12 percent of the uh worldwide trade, the canal does, or a louisiana factory fire that knocked out production of swimming pool.

Chlorine got it: okay, uh, oh my gosh number of container ships anchored outside the port of los angeles normal day, one september 19. 73. Oh, my gosh see that's what i'm saying like peak supply chain fears. Now some were actions with unforeseen consequences: okay, whatever, but most causes have been direct results of the virus that mistrip to disney with the funds redeployed to a new patio set in big stream stream screen tv was part of a vast spending shift from services to goods.

Bolstered by stimulus, stimulus checks, exports from asia, where many consumer goods are made jump 20 relative to those from europe and uh the united states, that compares with just one okay cool, so basically yeah. It makes sense. You still want to spend your money because, god forbid, people actually invest in stocks uh, but anyway, people still want to spend their money and uh yeah. So, like they're saying here, instead of buying a trip to disney you're spending it on on fixing up your home or something oh, i could finally afford that restoration, hardware, expensive piece of wood or metal junk.

I'm sorry like if i ever buy a piece of furniture from restoration hardware. Please unsubscribe. I do not have any restoration hardware pieces right now and i will not. I don't care how freaking fancy it looks in fact the more fancy it looks, the less i want it, how's that i just i want people to see my basic stuff, because that's what i care about, i don't really care about the fancy stuff uh.

It was kind of funny, like somebody came over our house the other day and they're like oh, did you guys redo your entire kitchen? Look, those must be brand new cabinets and we're like we painted them. We don't spend on stuff. We don't need to spend money on uh, it's the same thing. We do with our rental properties.

It's like what those are the original cabinets, they're wood and they hold your dishes they're fine. Why do you need new ones? Ikea is king. Okay, do you know that when i became a real estate agent, i uh when we remodeled our first house lauren and i uh we, i keyed it out and we basically turned our house into an ikea showroom. Let us show you how you could buy a fixer-upper ikea it up and do it on a dime, because we only had a dime uh, no michael, there's a difference.

Okay hold on a second, because that is ignorant. That is not cool. You can't say: look a slumlord is somebody who buys a a a broken property uh or a an unhealthy property and doesn't do work to it.