What's up you guys, it's graham here, so we got ta sit down for this one, even though i'm always sitting down because we're beginning to see some major changes taking place in the market and if you've opened up your computer and taken all through any amount of News whatsoever chances are you've come across one of these. The dow drops 800 points on pace for its worst day since early september s p 500 heads for its biggest decline in a month. It's been years since investors have been this fearful of the stock market crash. Nobel winning economist warns, and on top of all of that mortgage rates just hit another record low, while interest rates have finally started going back up, that's right guys.

You heard that correctly interest rates could soon be going back up. That's a move! We have not seen in a very very long time and by that i mean a year now. I know this one sounds like a lot to cover, but i'll quickly go through everything and break down exactly what it means, and then we're going to be looking through these statistics to see. What's happened in the past and what this means for us in the future.

But really quick, if you guys enjoy this type of content, i got a deal to make with you. If you smash the like button for the youtube algorithm, i will show you a really cute picture of a turtle. I think that sounds like a fair trade, one like on the video for one cute picture of eternal i'm waiting. Okay, thanks so much for smashing the like button.

It really means a lot and i'm gon na hold up my end of the bargain. Here's a really cute picture of a turtle enjoy, and also quick, thank you to morning brew for sponsoring this video, but more on that later, all right, so first things. First, here's a bit of a background on what's going on. In march, the stock market and the entire economy halted to a standstill as businesses were shut down and stay-at-home orders were put in effect and tens of millions of people were displaced from their work.

So, in an effort to help ease the concerns of the economy, the federal reserve lowered their benchmark interest rates, all the way down to zero percent. That would incentivize more spending and more money to be circulated throughout the markets and, at the same time, a multi-trillion dollar stimulus package was passed to temporarily hold us over. That's when the stock market did something that very few of us expected. It started going up and up and up and up to the point where, just months after the shutdown tech stocks reached all-time highs, driven mostly by the new work from home movement and heavy demand for online products and services, of course, there's also been some minor bumps Along the way, but now we're quickly approaching the most anticipated event of the entire year elections, and from that we're going to see a lot of volatility that we need to talk about now to start things off with some of the most intense news.

First, we have a dire warning from one of the most respected economists in the entire world, robert schiller. Now, here's the thing most of the time, i'm very skeptical - of these so-called economists, because what they tend to do is make these market predictions each and every year and then eventually after 10 years of being wrong, they're right one year and then that one year they're Right, they say: hey told you guys, so i knew it, i'm a genius and then they get a book deal. It's really no different from flipping a coin and calling heads until eventually it's a heads and then you say you knew it was going to happen because of some obscure pythagorean logarithm, that you discovered, while hiking the swiss alps on sleep deprivation and because of that you're. An expert no, but i say that because robert schiller is not in that category, he's developed many measures of our economy that we constantly use day-to-day when analyzing trends and now he's got a warning for all of us.

As investors, robert says that the crisis in upcoming election have driven investor fears of a major stock market crash to the highest level in many years. Yet, while investor confidence in the market is low, stock prices are trading at very high levels. Now in terms of how he gets this information, it's actually quite interesting. He samples random high net worth individuals, and he asks them if they think a major stock market crash is less than 10 percent likely to happen, and in september, 70 of respondents felt like the chance of a market crash was more than 10 percent likely to happen.

A number which indicates that the majority of people right now were worried about the market and then that worry could translate into lower stock prices. Now, on top of that, robert schiller also has what's known as a valuation index, that surveys the same people and asks them if they feel like the market is overvalued, undervalued or just the right price and, of course, as we could see from the chart, only 37 Percent of individuals feel like the market is undervalued. That means that, according to this and robert schiller, most investors feel like the market is more than 10 likely to crash during a time where 63 percent of investors feel like the market is overvalued. Now this isn't exactly rocket science and they don't make any predictions either, but it does give us a gauge on market sentiment which could have an indirect impact on where the market is headed over the next few months.

Now robert schiller does say that the volatile combination does not mean a crash will occur, but it suggests that the risk of one is relatively high. This is a time to be careful now. Keep in mind, though, that sometimes charts like this could be self-fulfilling. In the sense that, if enough people think something is going to happen, they can act in such a way to then make it happen, but more often than not.

This is really just a data point to be made, aware of so that you could prepare for a potentially good buying opportunity in the future and also, logically, you could better prepare and diversify so that, if something does happen, you're not going to be losing your tesla Call options now, in addition to that, we also have the added volatility of it being an election year, and if we look back historically throughout the last 70 years, we could see that on average for election years in the months of october, the market drops an average Of about one percent, however, the good news here is that those losses are generally made back up in november and december after the elections, assuming we have a clear outcome so, even though it might be a little bit spooky to invest in the current climate, statistically the Market is going to continue climbing up, even though we might see some short-term jitters, but then, if you thought that wasn't crazy enough, we got this. One interest rates are now potentially back on the rise, although before i talk about the implications of this and what this means for you, i got ta thank our video sponsor today, morningbrew they're, a completely free, daily newsletter that gets sent to you every monday through saturday And they bring you up to speed with the most important business and financial related news in just under five minutes. After all, you don't want to be like me and have to read two to four hours of news per day to be able to come up with content like this, because no joke! That's how long i actually spend scouring through the news each and every day, but morningbrew found a solution. They'll do all the hard work for you and then they'll cherry-pick the best topics and then condense them down into exactly what you need to know.

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So thank you so much and with that said, let's get back to those pesky interest rates. Now, like i mentioned, interest rates are potentially back on the rise, which means that maybe savings accounts will start to pay. You more money, mortgages will begin to cost more and the interest rate you pay when borrowing money will begin to increase. This all started the other week when the price of a 10-year bond increased past 0.8 percent, a rate that has not been seen for months now, and the assumption here is that, at this rate, the price of those 10-year bonds could increase past the psychological 1 threshold And rates like this are rising with the expectation that more likely than not we're going to see another stimulus deal.

And when that happens, the u.s will have averted any short-term crisis that could have come up, meaning that long-term bonds are able to pay more as fewer investors want to buy them now. I know that one sounds incredibly confusing and have simplified things a lot, but when you think of these interest rates, all you really need to understand is supply and demand the more people that are buying these 10-year bonds, the lower the interest rate becomes because more people Are driving up the price? On the other hand, the more people that believe in our economy short term the lower these yields go because fewer people are buying them and the higher the yield they have to pay to attract investors now. Hopefully, that makes some amount of sense, but even if it doesn't that's totally okay, all you need to know is that these interest rates are used as a bit of an indicator that maybe potentially soon these raids could start to rise off their record lows driven a Lot by the upcoming stimulus - that's probably going to pass now if you're wondering why these bond yields even matter in the first place, because it sounds boring. Well, i don't blame you because it is boring.

I get it, but it does have some implications on things that are not boring, like savings accounts and mortgages. Wait. Maybe those are pretty boring too, but i find them interesting. So let's talk about it because maybe we can make this interesting see as bond yields go up.

Banks need to increase mortgage rates to remain competitive to the investors who buy those loans. Therefore, the higher the interest rates that bonds pay, the more likely it is that mortgage interest rates will begin ticking up as well. Now, of course, it's still too early to tell what sort of impact this is going to have on the housing market or if this interest rate increase is just going to be miniscule in the big scheme of things, but either way, unless we see another widespread shutdown. The likelihood of mortgage rates dropping any lower than they currently are, is rather unlikely, and if i were to guess, i would say that we're most likely to see interest rates begin going up, especially if another stimulus is passed.

But don't worry quite yet, because mortgage rates are still at their all-time record lows so in terms of locking in a refinance or a mortgage you're still not too late to do so. But i wouldn't recommend waiting for too much longer if you're looking to refinance or lock in an interest rate. Now, on top of that long term, we could begin seeing savings accounts start to pay a little bit more interest like we did in the past, although, like i said it's still probably a little bit too early to tell, and we would need to see these interest Rates sustained for a longer period of time for them to begin translating over to a savings account. Overall, though, here's what you need to do about this just focus on what you can control, obviously go out and vote, so your voice is heard.

That's an easy one, but besides that volatility like this is going to be normal over the next few weeks. To next few months - and it's really up to you to have an understanding of what this means for you and understand the markets enough to not panic sell when things go down. Likewise, if you're looking to refinance or buy a home, you take the risk that interest rates might be going up by the time. You're ready to do that.

I'm a firm believer that you should only buy real estate that you intend to hold long term with a price that you could comfortably afford, regardless of what happens. So if you have a chance to find that right, home and lock in a low interest rate, i would go for it, knowing that whatever the price is in the short term, doesn't really make much of a difference and listen regardless of what happens. Historically, the market has shown that long term, it's going to continue going up this article from forbes breaks down the returns from each president since 1926 and as you can see, the chart is always going up decade over decade. So in terms of what you could do about this number one, you could smash the like button for the youtube algorithm two.

You could do your best to budget and cut back on unnecessary spending, so you have more money left over to save three. You could continue reinvesting back into the markets week after week, regardless of what happens four, you could continue to learn and educate yourself on the aspects of personal finance and investing five. You could make sure you understand your investments, so you don't panic and sell and six you could pay down any high interest rate debt that otherwise might be holding you back. Overall, i'm just a firm believer that the more personal control you take over your money, investing and personal finance, the stronger the likelihood you will have of coming out ahead profitable, and hopefully this information helps you out.

So you understand the markets a little bit more and the more you know the more profitable you could become with your money. So with that said, you guys thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate it as always make sure to destroy the subscribe button, and the notification bell also feel free to add me on instagram, i posted pretty much daily. So if you want to be a part of it, there feel free to add me there.

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The link to that is down below. In the description, let me know which three free stocks to get. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.