Hey hey: what's up my friends so before we get started, i just want to say happy new year right. I know i'm a few days late, but you know what what does it even matter right? So the thought is the one that counts right. So wishing you a happy new year, wishing you a hand healthy and happy 20 21 healthy relationships healthy, you know: finance, healthy, kids, healthy, what not healthy loved ones and healthy trading account. Okay.

So let's get started right with this month's price action analysis. So for those of you who are watching this type of video for the first time, let me just you know, give you a brief introduction. Okay, so, like you know, first day of school right introduction, so this type of video right really hammers in right. In my thought, process right and my price section analysis of the markets and the type of trading setups, the type of trading opportunities that i like to share are trending markets.

Why trending markets and simple release, because trending markets are the markets right? That, i believe, are the easiest. To kind of you know profit from, because the trend is your friend. The path of least resistance is already. You know, shown in front of your face.

All you need to do is to trade in the direction of the trade, and i get it right. There are hundreds, if not you know thousands of markets out there. So in uh, this type of you know monthly price action analysis. I help you filter down right to the best trending markets that are available right now, how i'm looking to enter them.

Trade them entries, exits, trade management and much more, and all this you know interesting stuff. So this really right, if you like, you, know stuff like this, you know getting into my thought process right. Then such videos would be really you know for you, so to kick things off right. First, market right, aussie dollar! This is the daily time frame, as you can see over here right.

This d is bold in blue, so this market. Clearly, you can see on this time frame it's a trending market, but here's the thing right just because a market is trending doesn't mean we blindly enter the trade, because you know trading trends is not just about entries. You have to think about your stop loss. I don't know where might you exit your trade if you're wrong and from the looks of things right, if you look at this price chart at this point in time? This is the most recent swing low.

So if you want to enter your trade right and you want to set a proper stop loss, it has to logically, you know: go below this swing low, maybe possibly at this level or even lower. So you can see that this stop-loss is pretty wide. So this is why i want to walk you through multiple time frame analysis. How do you actually get your buyers right on the higher time frame and then find low risk trading opportunities on the lower timeframe? So that's what we're going to do right now.

So if you see on the daily timeframe, we both can agree that this market is in an uptrend right so again, uh at this point right. We don't want to be entering off the daily timeframe, because there's no opportunities as of right now, but if you go down to the eight hour time frame, things will look a little bit different because if you just zoom out your charts on the eight hour time Frame, you can see that the market is still trending higher series of higher highs and higher lows, and if you overlay with the 50ma, you will realize that this market right and this time frame the eight hour timeframe seems to be respecting the 50 period moving average. It has, you know, been above it consistently right over the last few weeks or even months. Okay, so this to me is an area of value that i want you to pay attention to over here and there's a previous resistance that could become support and on top of it of it right, you have the confluence of this 50 period, moving average right.

So this is the key area to look for around the 76 cent area. Okay, so what i'm looking for is very simple, a simple bullish price rejection right to get a long trade, so the price could possibly you know, come down into this area right, rejected, rejected and closed higher. So when that happens, i'm looking to buy on the next candle open stop loss all right again. It will be at a level right which invalidates my trading setup.

So since i'm trading, i'm leaning against this area of support right, my stop-loss or it will go below this swing low somewhere about here. Okay, so that's my stop-loss! As for targets right, i would say first possible target you could look for is just before this swing. High to capture a potential swing, so you can see that you know just a quick estimate of your risk to reward. This could be your potential risk, and this here would be your reward, something about like this all right.

So, let's call it ri your risk and re your reward, so it's about almost a one to one right or maybe slightly better and of course, all right. This is just an example. If you want to trail your stop-loss or your potential profits can be. Even you know greater than this okay, so this is the first uh example to share with you right all: z, dollar, a potential bullish trading setup on this market moving on next one.

So this is a market that wow it has just plummet like a rock right. You just zoom out the charts on a daily time frame. You can see right, it has, you know, dropped a lot right since the highs of around uh, seven dollar twenty cents about here it just collapsed all the way down now about 640.. So you can see that in terms of pips, it's really a lot and the market is it's not showing you know signs of slowing down the trend.

It's still, you know strongly towards the downside and if you just overlay with the 20ma, you can see that this is a strong downtrend. The price has not been able to even close above the 20 period moving average. It is consistently below the 20 period moving average. Okay, so my my simple advice to this is that don't try to you know catch this bottom i mean from a trading standpoint right, don't try to catch this bottom if you're investing.

If you think this you know, the dollar is under value. You're gon na buy, you know, go ahead right, i'm not in uh. You know here to tell you know what you can invest or not, but putting things in the right context trading perspective. I won't recommend buying at this point in time the odds right would favor.

You know selling you know into this strong downtrend and now the question is again right: just because the market is trending doesn't mean you enter a trade immediately because we have, we always have to consider right. Where is the logical place, to set our stop loss? So if you look at this right, if you let's say you were to go and sell right now, let me just zoom in the charts right. Let's say you were to sell right now over here on the daily time frame. Right, where are you going to set a stop loss all right? Some people might put it here here, right or even here.

What's the problem with this, the problem with this is that if the market does pull back right, your stop-loss is at a level it's in a location where it will likely get stopped out right. If you just look through historically this, this chart right every time when it pulls back right. You know it moves about. You know a few hundred pips right a few hundred people.

This one is even more right so when it makes the next pullback, you would expect right that if you were to put your stop-loss at those levels, you will likely get stopped out. Okay. So this is why it pays right. It pays to be patient.

It pays to let the market the price come to you so where, where is you know? Where do you want to be waiting for? That's the question so again, we can use multiple time frame, uh analysis in this uh. If you don't want, you want to use the daily time frame, that's fair enough! It's possible as well, but in this case i'll just go down to the eight hour time frame again and to share with you right key areas to be looking out for and the one that i want you to pay attention to is about this six dollar fifty Cents area right where this is where previous uh uh support right to become resistance somewhere about here, okay and then looking for a bearish price rejection for the price to close, lower gold shot on the next candle open, stop loss can go. 180 are above this highs. First possible target just below this swing low over here.

Okay, so one thing to point out right: if you look at the daily time frame, i overlapped the 20ma okay, so this over here right again serves, and it's called extra confluence factor, because this area of support right, which could become resistance, is also near this 20ma. On the daily timeframe, this, so this kind of you know, makes that area that level even more important, because there are multiple factors coming together right for this particular trade: okay, so this dollar against the chinese yen, definitely a trending market worth paying attention to next. One dollar against the south african rent. I actually made a mistake.

I say that you know dollar against the african rand dollar against the african random. You know many people point out to me: hey rena, it's not african rent, it's south african red! You know: okay, okay, i get it. I get it right, south african red, so so pardon me for that. So again, story wise.

It's the same! If you look at this chart, the daily time frame, this market is in a downtrend right. You shouldn't, be, you know, uh, trying to too long at this point in time. You want to be looking for selling opportunities, so this setup. Let me share with you another way that you know you can trade a trending market, so the previous two examples were mainly trading pullback trading towards an area of value, but there's another technique that you can use, which is to trade, the breakout, the break up with A build up, so, if you overlay with the 20ma, you notice that this market right also right has been consistently below the 20 period moving average, and at this point in time, you can see that it's forming a potential bare flat pattern.

Okay, i like this, because if you look at the range of the candles in the pool bag, all right, let me repeat the range of the candles in the blue bag right notice - that the range is relatively small. This this to me, is good news for people wanting to shop the markets, because it tells you that the buyers they are unable to push the price higher. So when i see pullback, i want to see tight range candles like this. I don't want to see pullback, which have you know strong momentum like this or like this? No, this is not the type of pullback that i want.

I don't want that right. I want to see a small tight pullback. Why is that couple of reasons number one? The first reason is: if you get such big strong momentum right on the pullback, you would have a very wide stop-loss and that kind of you know reduces right the risk to reward the trade. You know the risk to reward is not as attractive number two when you get such tight consolidation on the pullback.

This is a volatility contraction pattern, so so i've - you know mentioned this a few times when you see volatility contraction in the markets right you, you know that volatility in the markets. They are not static, it's always changing. It's always evolving market moves from a period of low volatility to high volatility, and vice versa. So when i see a volatility contraction, it tells me that, let's say the market does break down.

Lower volatility could expand if and if i'm looking to shut the market and volatility expands in my favor from a risk to reward perspective. That's that's attractive to me right. I could, you know possibly risk one dollar to make two dollars three dollars or even more so. This is why you know i love to you know trade, the volatility contraction pattern, so in this case it's just kind of a bare flag pattern in layman terms.

So now the question is you know how do we enter this trade? So uh again? We don't you. Don't need to be a rocket scientist to do this. You can just simply go with a sell. Stop order below this extreme lows.

If the price breaks down the lows right, you immediately trigger that uh short trade, your stop loss, so i can just simply be 180. Either above this highs or above this high, so you would be somewhere about here right 180 away from this heist or the size, depending on how conservative you want to be. And since we are trading with the trend, we can, you know, trail our stop-loss right and to write a trend for as long as you know it. It goes down lower right, so you can trail your stop-loss using uh, for example the 20-period moving average.

If you want to, you can trail it using market, or rather price structure like this. So since you know in a downtrend, the market makes a series of lower highs and lower lows. You can trail your stop-loss right as the market continues, making a series of lower highs and lower lows and only exit right if it breaks and close above the previous uh swing high. So that's another way to trail your stop loss.

Okay, so yeah that's a pretty much uh, i would say the fx pairs that you know i want you. I want you to pay attention to for this coming month, uh moving on right to stocks right, let's cover stocks as well, because you know, i believe, a lot of you, trade, the stock markets as well. So if you look at it from a big picture perspective, this is the s p. 500 daily timeframe chart again this market is in a bull market.

It's in an uptrend. Don't try to to predict right that the bull market is coming to an end. So you know often i've seen no other trading educators trying to you know spot the top in the markets right. You know they will.

You know, try to you know uh on hindsight draw some lower lines like i don't like this or something like that and say. Oh, this is the top. This is the potential top. This is the potential top.

This is the top that's at the top and if you're always, you know trying to to nail the top front finding the highest trying to short the highs trying to catch the reversal, then you would miss right. The big picture, which is this nice long term uptrend. So, as i've said right, if the price is hitting higher, don't try to predict the top right. Don't try to you know, shot the highs catch the reversal, just trade with the trend buy in an uptrend markets.

It's as simple as that, but you know traders we tend to complicate things right, because we think we are smarter than the markets. We think we can do better and then we get caught with our pens down and we we suffer okay, so so really trade with the trend, in this case, right from again from a trading perspective right, you want to be looking for buying opportunities in the s B, 500, and if you look at this right, i know this looks pretty i mean i'll, be honest with you. I also think that this looks pretty. You know uh over overbought, but if you look at this market historically, you would realize that the s p 500.

It can remain overbought right for a sustained period of time. If you look at this well, does this look pretty much overbought to you? Yes, it is and it continued grinding, higher higher right for a while right before you know, we had a very steep pullback in march and april okay, so this market can continue grinding higher for a long long time. So don't think that the top is here. The reversal is here: well guess what the odds are? Probably it isn't okay.

So in this case i know it seems to be. You know grinding higher right now it seems overbought, but we still want to stay on the right side of the market, which is on the long side. So with that you know view of the stock market, the u.s stock markets. Let's look for a potential trading setup and the market, on the point of view, is kirk right, kirk kirkland.

So for this this is actually a stock company right that sells. You know home, furnishing stuff right uh via e-commerce, so in other words, all right. It sells home accessories that you would use to decorate your house and stuff like that. So the reason why you see right in 2020, this stock has done so well is probably because you know of covet right.

You know more people work from home. You know they buy stuff to decorate their house and stuff like that. So this is why right uh, you see very nice, this very nice uptrend in the kirklands. So again, question is right.

This this stock is in an uptrend right, but you know: where do we enter a trade we don't just buy, because this stock is in an uptrend? So where is our area of value? So if you just overlap the 50ma you'll notice that this stock right has a bounce off the 50ma a number of times right once twice tries four times and right now, it's approaching it again right for a possible fifth attempt. So what i'm looking for is this uh around the 50ma as well as this swing low over here right this again, we have a confluence around the 15 to 16 dollars. I'm looking for a bullish price rejection could be things like a bullish hammer, a bullish, engulfing pattern or just a false breakdown. Right, like a false break, simply means right.

The price breaks below the swing low, like this breaks below the swing low and then quickly, reverse right and close bullish lead back above this swing low. That's to me it's a false break. Then you can look to buy on the next day open when the market open the next day, stop loss again, one atr would go below this lows first possible target. You know before this swing high, where you can look to book some profits, and you know capture a swing right in this uptrend stock make sense okay.

So if you have enjoyed right, this price action analysis - and you want a little more of a price action - then go and get this copy of. You know price action trading secrets. This is a book that i've just written in a few months ago. You know if you can get a copy over here.

Let me just bring to you the website quickly over here price action trading secrets right just come over here right and get your copy of this book. So we will talk about. You know, trend trading, definitely reversal trading. Candlestick pattern, support resistance.

You know how to draw them, how to read. Candlestick patterns risk management, so you never blow up another trading account and all this stuff like that, so so really right. The websites here, you know just come here and get your copy and you know, get access to price action trading secrets, alright, so with that's it i have come to the end of today's video hope you got value out of it. I wish you good luck.

Good trading a healthy 20 21 - and i will talk to you soon.