LIVE MARKET ANALYSIS 8/5/2021
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DISCLAIMER:
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Zero um good morning, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, everybody welcome back good morning, guys happy eight in the morning, thanks for tuning in with us, so we'll get ready to rock and roll here in probably just a few seconds. Uh. Definitely quite a few things to cover. I know a lot of people are interested in amd.
Um definitely want to talk about uber, uber's, interesting um and then we'll just go from there good morning, mr chuck rania um all righty. So what we're going to first do is take a look at uber and really why i think we want to look at uber is really just because i think someone asked about it the other day, um yeah, i think, yesterday morning or just a couple mornings ago. Somebody had asked about uber what do we think about it, and the suggestion was that you should continue watching uber bearish until it got into this gray box. So right now we're looking at uber on a daily chart.
So it's not showing you today's current movement. So if we change this to a four hour chart watch what happens you see where the buying is starting to happen kind of around that box? So last night uber reported earnings and the market dropped down to that box that we suggested the market would go to, and then we suggested you would only start to try to be long once the market kind of went into that box. Well, it ended up going through it believe it or not by about a dollar and then bounced back up and started trading within that zone, so is uber gon na have a good long day. Today, i'm really not too sure and the reason i say that is a lot of times the first day after earnings can be a little sluggish.
Sometimes people are afraid to jump right into the market and get it moving. So we might just get a sluggish trading day here, but i was expecting that we should start to see a counter trend bounce on uber, similar to what we saw back here in april may or whatnot. So again, i think we will be seeing some sort of counter trend long on the stock uber, like we saw back in april to may fairly soon. My assumption was that it was going to kind of start around this uh this box area.
Now, in the event that i'm wrong about that, we might still go a little lower and i wouldn't really see uber going any lower than like 35.75 give or take a little bit before it bounces. So either we start really getting picked up here or we swing a little lower to 35 77 and then we start bouncing. This is a very similar situation to that of the stock pins. Remember yesterday we talked about pinterest, we said watch it long bias still watching it long bias with the target back up to 62 to 66.
This is sort of that same situation where people are starting to buy it in the event it fails. We could still see you know, maybe a move down to like 51, but nonetheless uber's interesting because it started to enter the buy zone for a counter trend. Move uber is not quite trading at -3, it might yeah, no uber shouldn't be trading at -3. Unless i looked at something incorrectly, but at least on the time frame, i guess i'm viewing it's not trading at negative three um, it came close to negative three. It went to negative two point: five on the four hour um and now it's trading at negative, two um, which my line is really. Why is it that's really odd? I don't know why it's doing that so good morning wayne what uh? What's up my dude? What's up um yeah we'll definitely take a look at roku here in a little bit. First, what we're going to do is we're going to hop over to amd um. So yesterday i did start a small, nothing too big.
Yet because again we have seen what's happened to people who try to short the top of amd, it don't work so well, so anyways started a small short onto amd yesterday at like i didn't catch, the top it was later in the day i started entering short Into uh amd somewhere in this area, just anticipating that the market was meant to start seeing weakness. So i didn't take the most ideal entry on the day, but for a swing trade. I did believe that amd was getting a little a little overdone and the fact that we ran up so strong yesterday and then pulled back so hard to me. It started to seem like signs of weakness, so decided to enter a small short yesterday, still holding we've gapped down this morning.
We started forming up in sort of a bullish channel, but that's gotten knocked back down on this candle. So we'll see how the open goes, but i did start taking on uh bearish positions with amd still overall long buy as a stock long term, but in the immediate. I do believe that we are around the corner from the market coming down. So if i'm right in today's a big down day, then i would expect that we'll see the market on amd come back down to about 114 or so i think that would be a logical price target for a pullback on the stock.
Maybe today um so anyways. Just bearish amd at these prices again we are over plus four and on the daily and the four hours so on the daily and the four hour, we're probably trading at plus five right now, so definitely overbought now currently watching amd on the bear side. Um kelly, you actually asked that same exact question uh yesterday, i'm sorry i didn't respond to it, so i don't actually own any bitcoin. I've traded, bitcoin back and forth back and forth back and forth.
But in a nutshell, i'm really just not smart enough or not not that i'm! No! I am smart enough. I really just haven't done enough research within that whole space to know anything more than owning like bitcoin and ethereum. If that makes sense right, so i don't own any on the long term uh, it's been something i've really wanted to get into, but i just never found the time which is dumb because you can see what's happening with it um. So it's an area where i still got to research, but nonetheless i do believe crypto currencies are going to have a future, whether that be bitcoin.
Don't know. I wanted to buy bitcoin down at like 19 000 23 000 when it got to negative two. It never went to negative two. It just did like a wedge snap on the amazon news, so i was gon na buy some bitcoin um, but it kind of jumped - and now i'm just watching it, but i do believe it is good to own some cryptocurrencies. Yes, all right one! Second, i don't have my scanner up, i'm like wait a second good morning, linda sandra. Yes, we are live every single day through the bell and then we stay to about 11 00 a.m. Okay, so now what we're gon na do is we're gon na pop on over to let me keep something up here: all right, we're gon na pop on over to en sc. I think it was um.
Wasn't that the one e, where did it go? I could have swore i just saw it ensc right, huh, yeah ensc's up this morning. It does look like. Maybe there was some news: um daily biotech, madonna slipped where to buy this, so it looks like they got a notice of a lounge from the united states patent trademark office for compositions comprising enzymes. So they do have some news about receiving some patent and or trademark from the united states.
Okay, so they've made a good move up um so far, i don't really know what to do with this um. I do see that en cs has some resistance around 599 to 632, which is probably causing some of its hesitation. So you can see the market today ran right up into the zone of 590 to 630, and then it ended up pulling back and selling down. So i believe encs has hit resistance and the only way you're really going to get a big move is if the market comes back up and through six to six twenty, which at this point is probably going to be pretty hard to do so.
For now i would just be bearish to neutral, but not long bias for the time being on encs. Yes, there is 197 of you guys watching so that's 197 tickles that we should have on the like button. So we'll see how we get we'll see where we get to, but we do appreciate those likes because it does help the youtube algorithm. At least they tell us it does all righty um good morning good morning.
Good morning, don't worry, we are going to go over the nasdaq. We will go over this spy. We are going to go over all of that good stuff and then also, i should just set an alarm for that. Give me one second: i need to set an alarm, because yesterday i forgot about something, but today we are learning from those mistakes, so i will set an alarm for e 55 perfect and that's going to have to be every single day of the week.
Sure, okay, alrighty awesome so now we're going to take a peek over at mcam mick sizzle. What do you guys think about? Mr am mick mick sizzling biscuits um we're not going to really run over the analysis from yesterday, but pretty much. We said to be long up to this red line and then you'd watch for resistance and then you'd watch the market bearish the market has gone down. So basically, what we're saying with amc is the exact same thing we said with uber. So if we go just kind of peek at uber, you can use uber as your visual representation as to what's most likely going to be happening with am mick sizzle. So if you look at the four hour chart on both amc and uber, you will see something you know somewhat similar, and that is pretty much right. Uber goes down. Sorry, fine support, bounces rolls over goes down enters new support soon to counter trend.
Bounce okay, amc rolls down hit, support, hold on amc, rolls down, hit support down here which, by the way we recommended you should have been long on that bottom and now we're rolling over and the recommendation is that the market will most likely go down to 20. Basically, that zone and then that's where your new counter trend long is going to be at so we're still bearish amc only because we don't think it's actually reached a low enough. Um risk buying point. So we're close, but not close enough to convince me it's time to jump in on the long sign.
I think you still let the bearish traders and the bearer side of the market continue winning the battle down to that zone, and then that's where you look for the counter trend. Long so again, recommendation amc is that you stay bearish on the stock. Until we see prices of 26, which could have changed a little bit, so let me just double check. No, it's still all pretty much the same so yeah until it gets to 26.50 to uh 2440, we're still not comfortable on the long side.
Alrighty thanks mr b who's driving right now and listening. I appreciate that, oh by the way, um. This is a stepping stone in the right direction, but i am in contact with someone at the marketing department of weibull, which they said that they would then contact someone in the servicing department to contact me or give me their information one of the two but anyways. They talked someone at weeble, they said they're going to get in contact with the right people to maybe talk to me, but we're gon na be trying to work with weeble to get the standard deviation on to weeble um.
Does it work? I have no idea, but i've at least initiated the conversation um about implementing uh this onto the platform so um, i said i'd be willing to kind of sit down with the programmers or whomever it is that codes into the system um to make sure that when They're doing it or when it's done to have me, look it over to make sure that it is in fact accurate and running sort of the same pricing. So i'll give you guys updates on that as that comes along, but i'm not sure what the case will be there um. Mr montero, i mean, i guess i i guess i sh i could contact tradingview i feel like tradingview, is gon na, be um less open to the idea, because they're, probably just gon na, tell you that you should build it on pinescript using their script coding, which We've already been doing and people have already been doing and it doesn't work, so i think there would be less chance of getting it done through trading view, ironically considering they're like the biggest technical analysis website. But again, that's just me assuming things without actually initiating a conversation, so i guess i could always do that too um. Mr sandberg, did i hear back from matt uh? No, not yet, but i don't think i will and that's. Okay, i've done my job and uh. That's all we can do i've been trading since i was in my early 20s. I've been investing since i was 18..
Everybody mostly knows me for day trading, because that's pretty much the only thing i've ever posted videos about, but at the end of the day, i'm also a long-term investor and pretty much my whole life is just investing trying to take my money to make more money. That's why, whenever my fiance tells me or that's why, whenever i tell my fiance that we're broke she's like we're not broke like no, we are broke and she just doesn't understand that my life means i take all the money i have all the money i have Is meant to be used for something right? I have to use this money to make more money to continue living, whereas for her she goes to a job. That's pretty secure to make money, so she just kind of shows up every week and the money will keep coming in, whereas for me i have to be creative. How to take this money to do something with it here or here or here, to continue making money.
So yes, in my eyes, i'm always broke because every dollar i have has to go somewhere um, but i'm not really broke but the mentality. You know. Okay, so we've covered amc, let's run through the market, really quickly. Uh, i mean my analysis on the market.
The past couple days has been kind of spotty because there just hasn't really been a situation that i think calls for like extensive action. So to me, market still kind of the same situation, we're kind of in this little consolidation chop we've been struggling to really push through all-time highs, and this is something that you will. You will come to recognize more after the markets already put in an all-time high. It then usually kind of just struggles to get into new all-time highs.
Significantly, we normally put in new significant excuse me new, significant all-time highs after markets go through dips. Okay, so, like you see here, the market goes through a dip. Then we go to an all-time high right, then you'll see eventually we kind of top out and then it just steadily grinds into a new all-time new all-time high. Okay and then we pull back.
We go through a dip, don't get over the all-time high, jesus, think or swim all right go through a dip come down here and then we explode through the all-time high. So i would say that i think i'm comfortable saying that where the market is currently at right now is similar to when the market was like here, okay, so we've already gone through our dip, we've already exploded through new all-time highs. We've been struggling to keep cranking in the new all-time highs like the past couple weeks, so we might be getting to that period where the market is slowing down and we might be coming into like a rolling over dip sooner than later again, not positive. We don't have too many bearish signals um on the daily chart with the nasdaq. You are starting to get an early sign of a reversal based on rsi, which is suggesting there is a bearish divergence occurring. That's on the daily chart. The four hour might give more detail to that, so the four-hour chart does in fact give us some bearish divergence too, which arguably could have already played out a little bit. But you can see the momentum on the market uh.
Sorry price has been going up and the momentum of the nasdaq has been trending down again. Those are early signals of a reversal. So again, i would be more on the side of like neutral to watching the market rolling into bearish action, maybe in a couple weeks or something like that, all right so we'll pop onto the spy, the spy probably shouldn't, be all that different from the nasdaq. Currently, one second guys.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, you can type that fast if all you do is sit at a computer for years and years and years. So again, it's taking me a long time to get those typing skills, all right, um. Sorry i had to send a message there, so we were on the spy again. Spy is very similar to that of the nasdaq.
So again, really nothing too crazy. Here yesterday the analysis was pretty spot-on. Basically, what we said was a market had to sustain over that trend. If we started to break it, then i was going to get better so anyways.
The resistance on the market right now for the spy today is going to be up at 4, 40. 92. So, unless the price of them, unless the market falls apart here and rolls down, you should see the market trying to creep back up to prices of 440.. Again, let me rephrase that so unless somehow the market falls apart today, it should be along up to a price of 440 uh.
Let me check the daily chart. Uh. I didn't see that there, so actually you have resistance before kind of yeah, so pretty much the resistance zone of the market right now on the nasdaq is here, so that's your resistance zone. You can't really suggest that the market's like really really bullish in the immediate until we were to get up through that zone and then trade above it, so the market to me is still more of into a bearish kind of resistance, as opposed to extremely bullish.
The only way i see us being really bullish on the spy right now is the market would have to get up and over the price of 440 91 and then stay above the 440 91 price, which would be pretty hard to do. Considering. That's also where the plus threes end on the day, so anyways uh resistance market starts at 440 all the way up to 490.. I think that's how the market's gon na play out today: resistance in that zone, okay, um, something else we are going to do, and this was actually something that i had a discussion with um a member just a second ago um. So anyways couple things i am going to be funding. My weeble account with more money. That's already, there really is just like small play money, but i'm also going to be funding. My weibull account and something that we'll probably do live is like a low-risk, balanced portfolio.
It's not something that i talk about too much, nor do i really yeah, i mean, doesn't really matter. Most of my views are day trading, but we'll be using a weeble account sort of throughout these daily streams, as sort of a low risk benchmark portfolio to use, while we're in the stream um and there's a couple reasons why? But one of which not everyone day, trades, that's for sure, not everyone's going to be successful at it. So you know also on this channel. I kind of want to provide means for people to understand, there's multiple ways to be invested in the market.
So another thing we're going to be doing here is having a weeble account is going to be a low risk fund, a lot of ets dividend stuff. You know pretty simple things that anybody can do right, so i don't want to be restricted to just one part of the market um, so some things will change here, a little bit on the channel. I hope it's for the better yada yada yada, but, like i said after trading since my 20s, i've taught trading for many years now. I've traded live for a lot of years.
I've had people in chat rooms and i've done everything live, which is all great and dandy, and the reality is after doing it for so many years um. I also you know you come to the realization that most people will probably end up losing money trading um. So when i first started doing it, you know that really wasn't even like a concern in my mind, but after doing this for so many years and doing youtube and trading and teaching and whatnot, you do realize just how hard it is even myself, but just in General for individuals to be successful at it on a long term basis, so you know i started waking up and going. You know like 20 years later down the road 30 years down the road in my life.
Do i want to be you know known for teaching a subject that is, that is almost nearly impossible for most people to master, and i said nope i don't. I want to be also known for other things that people can be successful at so that's also kind of why we're shifting gears a little bit, because trading is very hard. Most people are going to fail, so i also want to be teaching other routes of investing that more people can grasp that don't allow them to lose money. So it's more of a moral thing that i'm starting to set into, and maybe that's just with me getting older, maybe i'm just becoming more daddish. I don't know so again as i've gotten a little order. Maybe morality is checking in and i'm going well, you know what this is very hard for people. I do also want to teach other things so that it's more inclusive so anyways, that's kind of where my mind's at maybe i'm just growing up and i'm not a little kid anymore, so um but yeah. Morally, i'm like because i've never felt comfortable advertising like cars or fancy things to try to attract people to day trading, to then sell a course or anything like that, and then after doing it for so many years.
You know i've seen the turnaround rate right like i can see that from subscriptions and enrollments and things like that from our business right. I can see the turnaround rate for a trader right and that doesn't necessarily mean that they quit and they're not trading anymore. They could have just left our service went somewhere else, but there's a very high turnover rate. So i don't want to be necessarily a part of that high turnover rate right.
I don't want to be known for always teaching a subject that no one's going to be able to grasp. So that's a big part of it. So um i am 27.. Yes, 27.
Okay, um. Here's a good question! All right! This is actually stock related. I know you get a bear with me on my stream. Sometimes i get a little caught off guard and we kind of go down a little rabbit hole.
But what do you expect? So this is a good question. The question is, how can you predict price movement of stocks on earnings using the option chain? Um, so sorry, brain fart? Let me get some coffee no seriously, so you can't. Maybe you can, but this dude don't know it. Maybe you can predict actually, which way a stock's going to go on earnings.
I don't know it and i i would assume if warren buffett knew it he'd be even richer than he is, so i think there isn't really any way to for sure know with 100 certainty the direction of a move, but with very close certainty. You can figure out how much a stock is supposed to move, so this isn't going to lead you into a 100 profitable trading strategy. Won't do any of that. It's really just going to make you a better investor that isn't so noobish okay, so you would do this, i'm going to do this really quickly we're going to do it one time! So, if you're interested in learning how to figure out how much a stock is going to move on their earnings day, then take your little eyeballs and put them on the screen.
All righty folks - and this is uber um. We should use a stock by the end of the stream. Someone tell me by about 11 o'clock, someone tell me not to forget about looking at a stock reporting earnings tonight so before we go on the stream we're going to re-go through i'm going to teach you right now towards the end of the stream uh we're going To pick a company, or just a few that are going to report earnings tonight i'll show you how you would go about finding the earnings, move and mapping it out at about 11 a.m. And then you can uh follow those stocks and after hours trading today and then see how they they end up doing so. We're gon na now mind you we're gon na be doing this at 11. So, by the end of the day, things could change. But if you stay in at 11 and you go through the full process with me, then you'll know how to do the process by the end of the day. And that's when you want to do it because that's where you'll get the most accurate pricing, so anyways um the way that you figure out the projected price movement of a stock on their earnings report? Is you go to the option chain of the stock? It is that's reporting earnings, i don't know if this is the case for other brokers, but for td ameritrade and their thinkorswim platform.
If you look in the upper right hand corner where my cursor is at right there well, first you go to the option chain and you always pick the earliest expiring option chain for uber. In this case, it would be august 6 of 2021, so we'd go into here, and then you see this little upper right hand corner where it says: 121 blah blah blah blah blah blah anyways. It also has a number here three, so that's the implied volatility. Three.
Ideally, what that is, that is the dollar value. That uber was expected to move on earnings which this isn't totally correct, because it's really from yesterday so take that with a grain of salt. But basically, at the end of the day, before market close before a stock or company reports, their earnings. You will go to the options chain.
You will go to the first expiring option chain. You will take the at the money put in the at the money. Call, you will add those two contracts together, you will come up with a value that could be 10. 30.
50. 100., whatever that number is, is the expected price movement of the stock for the earnings. Another way of saying it is that is the expected volatility or the implied volatility for the stock, going into earnings so again, any stock in the stock market right before market close 4 pm, you go to the first expiring option chain, add together the price of, or The cost of your at the money put and at the money call when you add those together whatever that price or sorry whatever that value is, is how much the stock is supposed to move. Okay, it's easy on think or swim, because you don't even have to add them together.
You can just look in the upper right hand corner and whatever the implied volatility number. Is there that's how much it's going to move something like weeble, something like fidelity, interactive brokers. I don't know if they provide the implied volatility for you already. I'm sure there is.
I just don't know where it's located, but if you don't know where it's located again, you just add up the at the money put and call and that's how much the stock's going to move for earnings we'll come back to that a little bit later as the Day, progresses um, mr you uh, as thank you for the ten dollars. I appreciate you very much. Um, that's gon na go to a good cause that will go to a good cause. It could go to a bowl of panera soup. I love me that panera soup, especially after getting my wisdom, teeth taken out. I think the lady at the drive-through knows me on a first name basis: she's a good girl, good girl, gon na invite her over for a picnic soon alrighty um man, we've already talked about so much. I think i need a second to just kind of get. My thoughts together, nothing really changed on the high a day scanner here, um i'm going to take like five seconds and just kind of run through i'm just gon na run through this scanner myself, so that i don't have to think about talking and i can actually Use my brain that the god has given me.
Oh, i got ta move that because that's not helping, so you guys just uh you guys just hang out you just do whatever you do for a second ping ping earnings. Okay - ah, you add them together, add them together: um, yes, um your thoughts on amc, amc, bearish to basically bearish to the 25 24 price, something like that: okay um, chris uh. It's always the at the money, all right, so it's always at the money put or call amd is still just kind of like hanging out a little bit yeah. I really wonder if that's gon na actually roll over this this morning, if it does, it would be impressive all right, so we'll take a peek over here onto the tesla.
I don't think i've tried a poor man's covered call mr montero, to answer your question. Um wait uh yeah, so the more times this more times a stock touches support, does not necessarily make it stronger support. Um pretty much. The thing that i've always taught in the market is the first attempt at support or resistance will always be the strongest right.
So um yeah - that's that's pretty much it um here. Here's a great example ready watch this okay, so this first gray box, that's a first attempt at support. Okay, this gray box would be a second attempt at support. This third would be a third attempt breakdown ready.
Now hold on one second: oh, wait wrong one: okay, now uber ready is on a first attempt at support. So that's why we're recommending uber is along in these prices, because uber is now attempting support for the for the first time, attempt always strongest. Second attempt usually weaker: okay, um right, like what about this concept. Right look at look at the amount of times the stock hit this price in here right we held held held held held through so i mean that touched one, two, three, four, five, six seven eight and then broke on the ninth time, so that had eight tries Of support and still broke, so how valid is the concept that the more time something touches, a price level, the stronger? It is that's not entirely true. So for me, it's more about the first attempt at the market. Entering into support is always going to be your strongest strongest one. What's the ticker for bright health 355, ironically, ironically, i got ta say ironically, let me show you guys something real, quick. It's like it's like the youtube.
It's like the youtube algorithm knows to keep me at a certain. I swear to keep me at like a certain amount of views. It's kind of impressive and, and what i mean by that is like i won't really be able to explain it, but so um, oh got ta go to live yeah one second! So get this right. This is what i mean when i tell you that that this be rigged, sometimes, okay, now, of course, there's always a reason that could be valuable, so check this.
I don't know if you guys can see this very well, but um i mean i guess you kind of can. Oh there you go so look at the time of those videos, so the timing of those videos. Those older streams are only thirty minutes long and you can see the view. Count is about three thousand five hundred three thousand six hundred okay.
So now we'll go to a three hour stream streaming for three hours: still: 3. 400. 3. 500..
That's impressive! So, even after working for another three hours longer, you still don't really get more views, so there would be two plausible explanations that would mean that the same 3 000 people that watch me for 30 minutes are the same 3 000 people. That watch me for three hours and that, after three hours of streaming, youtube has not promoted our channel to anybody new that hasn't already seen our channel, or that simply is that i am just such trash that only the people that have ever subscribed to me are The people that only watch me so again, i don't i i don't know what that i. What do you guys think what do you think? I don't know what to tell you. But what do you think about that? A 30 minute stream gets the same amount of views as a three hour stream.
I mean. Maybe i mean i'm, not the king of youtube. I don't know how this works, but my mind doesn't think that's right. I think there's something a little off there and i really wish i really wish you guys could watch my account like it might even happen right now like right now.
It says i have 172 505 subscribers. Let me refresh this okay. I didn't work that time, but almost every single day, when i update my youtube, i constantly see subscribers actually go down. So i don't know if that's youtube, unsubscribing people that are like um old accounts or if it's actual people unsubscribing.
But who knows it's really hard to tell really hard? To tell i mean, and you guys saw what happened with matt course channel. What's happened with meet kevin and even graham stefan, you know some of their channels started basically getting blocked and banned for who knows why? For reasons that aren't even legit, oh man so funny actually yeah - i was considering actually my fiance just walked in this morning and said i should work on tick-tock and i'm like oh boy. Here we go um. So i'm gon na take like five seconds just to kind of read through the comments to see what people think of my uh my spiel there and then we'll continue moving forward. I mean we. We could do that right. We, if you guys, are okay with it. I could totally make youtube videos spewing absolute about trading and if those get more views than spewing about real stuff with trading, then we would know for sure we would know for sure i don't know i always got to have the conspiracy side of me.
That's just how i roll um paypal. Let me write that down. I will take a look at mcpaypal um, so if you buy a stock and invest in it, how can i add insurance to be safe if it drops so rodrigo, you would be in the position of you. You want to at least own a hundred shares of equity.
Well, you kind of have to so. If you're, an investor that has more than a hundred shares, invested into a single company, then you have a hundred or so you have a hundred shares, which then gives you the control to sell option contracts. So once i have physical, which really isn't physical because it shit's all digital anyways, but you know, theoretically, once you have physical digital stock, you then have control of a hundred shares of equity into that company, which then allows you the ability to write. Okay, that's a very important word: write not sell, write, option contracts to other investors; okay, you own 100 shares of amazon.
You can go to the options and you could write a contract to a buyer in the market on amazon, getting option contracts. So if you own amazon - and you want to protect yourself because you think it's going to go down - you could write a call contract to another investor. That investor would then buy or get into an agreement with you on that option, contract, many of which will be market makers. Okay, so you could, let's say you think amazon's gon na go down, so you write an option: call contract for a 3500 strike price.
If someone excuse me comes and buys that contract from you for amazon to go up to 3500 and they're wrong, you will make all the money that they spent on the option as the stock goes down. So, though, the you're losing money on the equity, because amazon is going down you're bringing money back in from your insurance play, which was writing a long option contract to an investor who thought it would continue to go up. But in fact it went down. So you basically just took all the money they spent on the option and put it in your pocket.
Hmm, i'm a trash can filled with golden nugget like oh baby uh. That's true, mr hello. Dark pool manipulation 100 best channel out there. I'm here for stock talk, not you not youtube, analytics, that's fun, but you got ta have fun with it green raven i apologize. I mean this is youtube right. This is youtube. Yes, so so again, an option contract is equivalent to 100 shares of stock. Theoretically.
So when you own 100 shares of stock, that gives you the control to write one contract, because one contract in an options market is equivalent to 100 shares of equity. You know abraham, it could be. I could definitely work on the thumbnails they're, not the most catchy, but then again i have no idea how to edit and then, whenever i go to fiverr and pay someone to do it, they they still just i even give them examples. I'm like do that and then it's like they don't do that and it's like, but do you know how to do it? So i don't know.
Maybe i just haven't found the right guy, maybe he's probably probably yeah. No, it's definitely 100. It there's definitely some factor there. Am i watching hood? No, not really.
I didn't really watch hood. No. I haven't really watched it all that much so my alarm should be going off here soon wow. There is what about when you sell a put well, when you sell a put, you would be selling the put, because you bought the put okay when you buy a put, you would sell to put to close it.
That's why i said earlier: it's very important. You don't get your words mixed up in the options market because in the options market you're dealing with contracts when you're dealing with a contract, you don't sell somebody a contract. You write somebody a contract. They then get into agreement with you on that contract.
Once the agreement has been closed at that point, then the buying and selling actually starts. So you first and the reason you say, write and not sell, even though you're kind of selling it is its proper wording for the options market. So when you are the one writing a contract to somebody to purchase or get into agreement with, is that's really the way it works, but it's still selling. I mean you're.
Writing a put at that point. Yes and it's very easy to get mixed up on the terms. Yes, when you write a put, how does that work? Well, we could continue on that discussion um, but i will just get carried away. We got to keep going on these stocks, so, but what i will do is i will bring um.
I will bring my guy dave on one of these days and we'll have an options day because he's a savage at options, nothing better than cold coffee. All right give me a second just want to kind of peek at my scanners. Here doesn't really look like a whole lot's changed there. Uh btbt is definitely a stock.
Today i feel like it's gon na be a short trade or at least the stock's gon na move bearish so might continue watching uh btbt on the bear size. Today. Oh that's right. You can't short btbt what a piece of well you can on other brokers, but at least not mine, but that's just so annoying.
That's exactly what we ran into yesterday when we tried to go short at 13 and couldn't do that. So that's a gone that that play gon na be gone etsy down, uh yeah. So if we look at etsy etsy sold down most likely to deviation support so we'll just we'll figure it out ready. So we'll put etsy on this chart over here, um yep there. It is, i mean pretty much. That's what that you know. That's what i'm trying to explain right when your keys keep tuning into this channel, i mean literally the market moves to deviations every single day. That's where it goes right, don't it prices, it just goes to deviations all right.
So when we look at the daily chart here - or this is the four hour the four hour chart for uh etsy - has support down at the price of 1703. The daily chart has support here at the price of 178.38, so pretty much. The current long zone for the market on etsy is from 170 to 178, and you can see once we've gotten into that zone. The market has stopped and people started to buy now whether or not the market's strong enough to bounce it out right away today, yeah, i don't know about that um, but ideally this is where you would be looking for a counter trend, long bounce on etsy.
Your stop loss would be a successful break and snap through the price of 169.. So i think it's worth watching etsy today and as the prices in these 170s area for some consolidation and maybe a long play in the future, so just neutral on etsy. For now, but it is into support areas again. Your support on the day for etsy is 169.97.
Your current resistance you're on resistance right now, but your resistance could go up to 182.. So, in the event that the etsy, like kind of pops up at the gates or out of the gates at the open, i think it would pop up to 182 and then it would sell back down. So i think, on the day i think you you could have a max long on etsy to about 182. yeah yeah, mr montero um.
I will post the link right now, oh by the way um there. For some reason, the um hold on man mornings are just so busy, there's just so much to do um, but yesterday i posted links, letting everybody know that we have one-on-one mentoring. Now that we've been trying to open for a long time got ta, let you know, for whatever reason that um the page is still being restricted. Um i launched it live but for some reason it's not actually visible to the public and when everybody goes to the link, it ends up redirecting them to somewhere else.
So i got ta fix that and when i do, i will let everybody know, but that's probably the reason you were having trouble if you were having some trouble come on zoom like i mean how many times i have to do it. Yes, all right guys give me just one give me one: second, sorry guys yeah so btbt. I think you might see a target of 15 in the event it doesn't actually sell down today, um also by the way for the 400 of you guys tuning in today. Just uh remember that at trading clips you guys can have free scanners, trade ideas and benzene scanners. All day is the second youtube channel. We run it is called trading clips. So if you go there subscribe, you'll tune in you'll, have free news, free scanners. All day long every day can't read lips.
Oh yes, you can you're. Just gon na have to learn uh, let's check on bitcoin, so um. The last time we talked about bitcoin bitcoin had made this spike, and then our recommendation was within this long move that you were seeing so when bitcoin broke out. Your max long target, at least at the time, was up to forty two thousand to forty four thousand um that was kind of the max long.
You could go for within that market. Now we're just kind of trading sideways um. Let me check something else yeah, so i think the market right now on bitcoin was trying to go back down to about 36 400 and then bounce. So let's see and didn't quite get there, but pretty close.
So, basically, the way that this market's working on bitcoin was we're pulling back down to the daily chart. Negative one deviation mark, so i do think bitcoins around the corner from kind of picking back up and bouncing uh from this pullback. So if you're a bitcoin follower there, you go just an fyi amd, still holding down um decently. Well this morning your chrome tab says: live market anal, very nice uh as a beginner.
Would you open a cash or account or a margin account? You should probably use a cash account as in a beginner, be a good idea. Um ethereum's a little bit different than bitcoin, obviously, but probably very similar um, so ethereum has bounced back to its mean. So that's why you're seeing these red candles on the daily chart and then on the four hour or on the mean so we're on the four hour and the daily chart meeting, which typically means we'd, be on resistance. So yeah i mean ideally your next big move happens on a successful break the mean.
So i don't think that's gon na happen right away. Excuse me, but but yeah once you actually successfully break out through the mean you'll then see a price on aetherium up to 31 000 or 32 000 earth yeah. 3200. Excuse me, the name of the scanner channel is trading clips.
I will post a link here in the chat right now uh. So for now, i think on the day i'm going to keep an eye on amd a little bit uh. I definitely got to what i'll watch excuse me. So again, when i say breakout, it basically means the stock is actually breaking out, and what's that mean i mean it stocks breaking out? How that happens, it could be a candle breaks over another candle stock pulls back re-test support um.
However, you determine the full breakout which to me doesn't look like it's breaking out right now: okay, so again, there's just so many things that you could discuss of a break out, this candle sold this price and so on. It's mmat, um yeah. This is going up. This is kind of interesting, so mmat, i think, is gon na try to get up to the price of 390 to four dollars. You know i'm gon na start, like a small bearish bet on to uh mmat here so yeah taking a bearish short play. Oh, my gosh yeah, taking a bearish short play on mmat here, um, i'm okay with it going all the way up to the price of okay was seeing mmat all the way up to 390 to 406.. So, in the event it pushes all the way up there, then that's fine, that's a good move down all right so covered that little short, basically just scalp. Now you say i scalped it.
I mean i got about 10 cents on that so took that little trade off um part of the reason. Why is because it hasn't hasn't, really hit the resistance that identified so sometimes, if, if i take a position and the stock didn't really hit the resistance a lot of times i'll just make that a quicker trade, because it could still come up and go to the Resistance and the only reason i know that is because i've taken so many short plays and gotten squeezed out so many times that you just kind of learn you're like well, it could go a little lower, but you didn't really hit resistance, so it's probably best just To take the money and if, in the event, it does squeeze back up all the way to resistance and you can enter a new short, but if you miss the full big move, then it just kind of does what it is. How do you always find the good stocks to day trade, um scanners in practice and just been doing it a long time and then also when you watch the market every single day, you just kind of start picking up on things, uh vne? This is up. Um looks like this is going to be a buy out, so, oh my man, not gon na, do anything there by the way i shot my best score ever yesterday.
In golf, i shot a 39, so i was pretty happy about that 39 and i missed, i think in this two birdie putts, like a jackass. What's the best strategy, if you're limited on day trees because of a count i mean terry there's i mean the the best strategy. I mean, there's multiple, you can do options and do you know option plays it, don't cost a lot of money? I really don't know. I have no idea the best strategy is winning whatever one that leads to generally people with small accounts are going to try to go into some sort of lower risk option play.
That would probably be a better question for dave, so maybe i'll ask dave that and yeah really. I think you should we'll just try to have a session with my uh, my friend dave, who trades a lot of options and he'll be able to answer some of your guys's questions on that significantly better than i can but like personally. If it's going to be trading equities, i think you should use a cash account over a margin account huh nvidia's, still cranking. I've been playing golf, a decent amount of my life more so as i've gotten older, but i grew up playing with my dad.
Didn't really take it too seriously, but as i got into my 20s, i joined a golf league and i've played more and more mort's one of my most. I love the sport personally. Oh so sad would have been an awesome short there, but look at look at what happened with uh with mmat. So this is something i want you guys to realize is that whenever a stock like mmat blows up - and it's so far above the standard deviation for the intraday, it means it's extremely overbought. So you guys can perfectly see here. The market was all the way up here and its sell-off went where all the way back to trend right so up here, extremely overbought. This is still overbought. This is slightly overbought.
This is barely overbought. This is fair value. So that's that's the way you're supposed to view the market. It's extremely overbought, still overbought, still overbought kind of overbought, fair value, oversold big, oversold, extremely oversold way too oversold markets down here, retraced back into trenton markets up here, retraced down into trend, that's typically how the market works on a day-to-day basis, not every time, but most Of the time uh corey since my early twenties, uh tarson.
No and yes, i really don't have any sort of data to suggest that one day is stronger than 180 day. But realistically, the one year day is stronger than the 180 day. But 180 day will come into play before the one year day, and so you still kind of have to use both. But if you, if you were to go, look up like mean variance optimization how robo-advising companies do their robo-advising um, it's all based around standard deviation, standard error mean uh variance, optimization, which is all based around standard deviation, and most of that analysis comes down over the Yearly chart so a lot of these robo-advising companies um they use, what's called mean, variance, optimization, which is based around standard deviation and pretty much.
To put it simply just know that they use mean variance, optimization normally on a yearly outlook. So, that's why i always tell people to use 180 day and a one year day chart for standard deviation, because the computerized systems robo advising systems - that's what they do. They use mean variance, optimization, which is derived from standard deviation and they use that on daily charts or one year time frames. So i'm trying to tell you is one year time frames because that's where you're going to find computerized algorithms buying and so on, am i considering the news on mmat yeah? I consider the news um.
So if you look at the news, it says that they're going to be acquired, that's awesome right, so they're going to be acquired stock blows up to overbought, so yeah. I was considering the news in that trade too. Yes, yes, i was um, i haven't yet they are pretty much the same. I was actually doing some research into standard error, but i didn't do enough research to really come to any conclusions that i felt were giving me any extra edge. But that could also be the fact that i could be doing things wrong. And i just don't have a good enough understanding of it eb-e-t. This is kind of interesting man. I'm gon na pass um uh.
Mr montero we've already been over this. So far, no success on tradingview i mean yeah bollinger bands. You can use bollinger bands again, it's not going to be the exact same as standard deviation channels, but again, bollinger bands are extremely common indicator that a lot of people do do. Use yes, which is also kind of derived on the same concept of standard deviation.
It's very similar, ah mrna, hmm got ta, be bearish got ta, be i actually have no idea. This thing is this thing: it just refuses to come down off these highs, but i feel like it should i mean yeah this thing's getting real up there yeah. I would probably be more on the the defense of watching mrna bearish over the next couple weeks as opposed to bullish um some hobo. Yes, i do have a day trading course.
It pretty much engulfs everything that i know um. We used to have a chat room. Uh, which just ended recently, we still have a chat room um, but we offer live trading rooms, weekly classes, one-on-one, mentoring, day trading course, um, that's pretty much it in the future. That will probably include things regarding personal finance, like credit cards and debt and mortgages, and all sorts of that.
So you know in the future. You should expect that boardroom um trading, which we might even change the name to just the boiler room, is just going to be an all-inclusive personal finance, educational, investing custom coded scripts. I mean pretty much just trying to create a whole universe of financial everything. So for now it's it's primarily based on trading, because this is kind of where everything started with me um, but it's gon na slowly evolve as the years go on.
You teach golfing no, not yet, but i'm i'm trying to convince myself to gain the confidence to do a golfing youtube channel. I really want to because i want to have something else outside of you know just this that i can look forward to and yes, no, you can make a lot of money from youtube. Yes, so don't think that i'm some holy grail guy that just wants to go play golf and i love playing golf. I play golf all the time and i'm like well.
If i play all the time, i could just record videos of me playing and guess what people will watch it on youtube. It's a guarantee. They will probably watch it. You do that for a couple years playing a game that you love and next thing you know you're, making a couple thousand dollars a month off of youtube from just playing golf.
So, yes, it is a business move but youtube's a fantastic place to be as long as you can gain the confidence and put yourself out there. It works wonders it really does so anyways, i'm trying to build a confidence to do that on my down time and my extra time throughout the days um, because then maybe one day i'll be 40 years old and all i have to do is just basically play.
really helped rewatching the portion of the video where you went over the options and the range. i didnt even see that imp vol on the td options until you pointed it out and now i actually know what it means and how to look at it. really interested in any options strategies and general ways to look at them. great stuff, hope to see more and more people tuning in.
are we watching MBI Connor !