Ah, hey everyone don't mind me: we got ta talk about the uh crypto crash. That's going on! There's a lot of stuff going on over there and uh in here as well, but uh we got ta talk because there's a lot, that's happening: okay, here's! The first thing that we know active, wallets folks, active, wallets one of the problems that we're having right now in bitcoin is active wallets, which is uh one. One of the measures that we can use to gauge trading activity has stalled. We hit 1.2 million actively trading wallets uh about a year ago today, now we're down to 971 thousand.

This means we're down uh just roughly 20. Now, because of this, there are some suggestions that we could set up: a liquidity squeeze that might cause something very similar to the december flash crash that we saw, which we've been seeing. Bitcoin fall pretty substantially today, let's go ahead and look at the chart and then look at some of the other reasons for a fall that we have, because we've got four really big ones: the first one though without a doubt, the plummeting in active wallets and the Amount of active accounts actually buying the dip. So in december we had this substantial kind of flash crash right here.

Flash crash is really defined as a sudden, sell-off generally driven by liquidations. That's what we had on about december 3rd. That was a pretty bloody friday in the stock market and the way weeble kind of shows the 24-hour. Here, it always seems to show it the date about a day later uh, but that might be because they're using gmt time, but anyway, what's important here is that yes, some form of liquidated flash crash and then recovery which we were covered within that same day, i Mean we fell down to 42 383 and then, within the same day, ended up closing at 49 800..

It's a pretty substantial difference there. We were still down 9.25 that day, but certainly nowhere near as far down as we were intraday, and there are concerns now that we could see that same sort of wicking happening uh over the next few days to a few weeks and part of the reason for That is if crypto continues to trend down, whether that's because of its correlation to the nasdaq or some of the other reasons that we're going to talk about in this video. It doesn't help when you have a less actively trading wallets now. Sometimes that's because people are taking their cryptocurrency out of hot wallets or brokerage accounts and they're, putting them into cold storage, which means they're not being actively traded, which can sometimes be good if more crypto is being locked up, is essentially a store of value than potentially You have less selling pressure, but unfortunately the opposite is actually happening right now, at the same time as having less overall traders, and so that's another issue that we face right now.

So number one issue is a decline in active wallets number: two is a record transfer of cryptocurrencies, specifically bitcoin from cold storage to brokerage accounts, we're seeing a large transfer, so this should imply more trading, but so far it seems to be materializing as selling pressure uh. At least based on the current price activity now another issue that we're facing is reduced of volumes and open interest in futures trading. Now some of this could have to do with the same reasons in terms of us seeing fewer trading accounts in crypto, but according to the chicago mercantile exchange, we are down from an all-time high of 17.4 billion dollars of crypto futures trading. Actually, i'm sorry bitcoin futures trading, just bitcoin 17.4 billion dollars of bitcoin futures trading in october, which is just two and a half months ago, and we are down to 10.6 billion.

That represents a 39 drop in trading notice. How much of this is related to trading and how little is actually really at this point related to hodlers or diamond handers? It's really traders that make the market, and we've heard this before - that institutions, trade, uh, 70 of the crypto. That's that that trades, that institutions are really the ones driving price actions and if they need to hedge against risky style assets and they need to beta hedge. One of the things they'll do is they'll, sell things that have uh that have an elevated beta and unfortunately, tech stocks within the s p, 500 have a high beta and the correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks keeps getting more and more clear.

So if hedge funds are selling off tech stocks because of what's happening with the federal reserve federal reserve today, providing a completely disastrous account of what's happening in the economy, albeit that was about a three week old meeting that we just reviewed or got the minutes. For today, it's still weighing on crypto as well, just to give you a very, very sort of uh brief synopsis of essentially what was talked about. We had talked from the federal reserve about having the largest balance sheet ever high inflation, more short-term bonds than ever before. Risk to the upside for inflation risks are the downside for the economy and that inflation is broadening, and last week we talked about how a cryptocurrency specifically bitcoin is not at all trading like an inflation hedge.

In fact, it's trading much more like a risk asset or risk on asset or textile asset, and we saw this when we broke down the catalyst last week of how crypto is moving in relation to what sort of activity is happening in the actual marketplace and see You might remember this: remember we wrote what moves bitcoin well, folks, fear about inflation, going up and fear about the federal reserve, raising interest rates moves bitcoin down, not up, because what moves bitcoin up is money, printing without inflation. So a brief summary would be fed fears and high inflation equals bad for crypto. Lower inflation accommodated fed good for crypto. So that's just another one of the reasons that we're facing right now.

So so far, we've got quite a few. We've got a decline in active, wallets, we've got volumes and open interest. Declining we've got more transfers from wallets to brokerages. Then we've got this correlation between the fed fears, nasdaq, the technologies, all rotating to the downside, also hurting crypto, and the last thing that we've started.

Seeing, although this is not, i don't really want to call this the fifth catalyst yet. So that's why i'm only really saying four, but it's just another one that we really have to pay attention to is bitcoin liquidations. In the last 24 hours, we've had over 500 million dollars worth of crypto liquidations. Let's take a look here actually now at 12 points actually ticked up right now, we're sitting at total liquidations at over 740 million dollars of all kryptos.

If i just sort to btc we're actually at 282 million of just btc liquidations for ethereum liquidations, we're at about 143 solana, 17 17.9.71 xrp, actually 16.7, so moving up a little bit jumping to matic 7 mana algo. You can play with these here. But if we jump on over just to see this graphically, we could scroll here and see this elevated pane here in liquidations, and this generally is associated with a decline in cryptocurrency prices. So these are a lot of issues that we're facing right now, all at the same time decline in active trading, wallets people trading less, maybe they have less money to buy and go shopping.

We're seeing uh futures volume decline. Remember, bito, that was the bitcoin futures etf, that surged to one billion dollars in assets under management within uh, the first two days of trading right now, it's only at 1.2 billion. So i guess i shouldn't say only because that's still technically up 20 percent, but it had most of its growth, the first two days and then just sat there so decline in active, wallets a decline in uh futures trading. An increase in liquidations fed fears.

All of these things combined are creating a lot of fud in the cryptocurrency market space to where, while you still have some analysts, who are like, don't worry, we're still going to 100k. There are a lot of people who are getting vocal coverage right now about. Oh, no, don't worry, sell your bitcoin now because we're going down a lot further before we go back up now. I don't know, but let's take a look at some of the technical analysis.

I will say if we get a full break under where we are now, which is a line of about 45 seven. We are potentially knocking on the door of a 37 592. Again, that's the next stop uh. Then, of course, we've got some soft stops in the mid 30s uh.

The the red lines here softer stops harder stop at about 32 6, and then we get some strong support lines on that 30, 30, 31, 30 and 29.2 level uh for btc. So hopefully we don't have to trend in this direction, but uh right now we're definitely not uh jumping up and down with the uh. The fake out rallies that we've been getting from bitcoin uh, multiple different fake outs here to try to get us off of support and this uh. This fed meeting information was really the nail in the coffin to help push us over the edge to the downside.

Here. Ethereum now under 35 same sort of break to the downside, not great, because the next stop could be 25 100.. We go ahead and jump on over to uh aida ada sitting at 122.. Next, stop brings us right back down to a buck.

Look at this! How we're playing these support lines almost perfectly take a look at this. You had your breakout uptrend got rejected by that 150 and came right back down to support uh. It's uh i'll, tell you basic technical analysis or the kind of information i teach in the stocks and psychology of money course is extremely critical when you are investing in cryptocurrencies. The same thing here take a look at this.

You got uh you bounced off of the 147. This is all in the day chart you broke through 187, but got rejected at 206 only to come for a brief landing at 171, and now solana is rejecting right back down to about 147 again over and over and over again, these support lines, which i don't Move i leave them stable only time i ever move them is totally by accident. But if you look at my past videos, you see they're always consistently at the same spots. Ada, solana, uh.

You know bitcoin ethereum, let's go ahead and take a look at matic, so uh, here's matic, don't have many lines drawn for a matic, but clearly a rotation down here. Uh we we're still on an uptrend uh. I would say sort of a more broad uptrend from the middle of december. Here we could see that trending uh nicely up here.

We are getting uh higher lows, which is good uh, we're not really seeing higher highs anymore. We were so we'll see what's happening. You know what ends up happening here if we end up converging down and finding a new support level, but right now that's a little difficult to determine exactly where that might be. We could do a fibonacci retracement.

What if we went ahead and did that and we took a i'm going to go ahead and measure from the floor that we had in september? This was really before the rally and it kind of ignores all of the madness that happened in the summer. So if i go ahead and draw down from a peak here on fib and pull down to the bottom here, it looks like we're getting close to bouncing off of that 197 line on matic. We got stuck around the 78.6 percent line at 2.52, but of course the next stop after this, if we end up do hitting that 197 level could be 175., so it gives you a little bit of perspective into some of the drama that's going on. I think a lot of this is uh.

Well, i mean, ultimately, it comes down to what you believe as to whether or not it's overblown or not, what's happening with the federal reserve. If you believe that the federal reserve has lost its plot and inflation's going to the moon, you probably don't want to be in tech or risk-based assets or, quite frankly, crypto to some degree, because it is trading as a risk-based asset, not an inflation hedge. If you believe that the fed is overreacting and we're going to see an inflection point to the downside, inflation and a return to some form of accommodation from the federal reserve, even though technically we're still accommodative right now, uh that the fear is that the fed's going To tighten substantially then uh, then in that case maybe it's uh. These are all perfect opportunities to buy the dip and hopefully you'll get rewarded handsomely in the future.

If you want to see all my moves make sure to check out the stocks and psychology of money course, every time i buy or sell something you get access check that program out link down below folks. I really appreciate you being here. If you found this video helpful, consider sharing the video and folks we'll see you next one thanks, bye.