Hey guys, it's Sasha. Three days ago, President Bison spoke at the White House and told everyone that after the First Republic Bank became the fourth U.S Bank to collapse in a few weeks, the U.S banking system was now safe. These actions are going to make sure that the banking system is safe and sound. We have to make sure that we're not back in this position again.

and I think we're well on our way to be able to make that assurance. And the very next morning after Joe Biden was well on the way to making that. Assurance two more bags began collapsing Western Alliance Chairs dropped sharply first thing in the morning and so did Pac West It turns out that for some weird reason, the shareholders of Regional Banks did not feel particularly reassured. Maybe it was this bit in Biden's speech that spooked them.

Well, depositors are being protected. Shareholders are losing their Investments. It turns out that the official White House policy for anyone holding the shares of any Regional Bank is that they can right off depositors get to keep their money because I guess if the White House did not guarantee see old deposits and people started to actually lose their money in this show, public opinion of the efficacy of the US government and the Federal Reserve may very quickly become not entirely positive. Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fomc clowns had a two-day meeting this week immediately after Biden told everyone that the banking system is safe and I don't really know what it is that they did at that meeting.

Maybe they had a lot of caviar to eat. possibly champagne was there that really needed drinking. But we do seem to know that the FED did not bother looking at any data or doing any actual analysis because yesterday Jerome Powell came out and shared the world's worst kept secret: the FED is going to increase rates by 25 basis points. After all, he did promise the Russian pranksters who pretended to be Ukraine's President Zolenski that he's going to do that rate increase by 25 basis points in a video call.

So Jerome Power is a man of his word and I recorded a video before that idiot opened his mouth yesterday saying that this increase is an incredibly bad, incompetent decision that will lead to the imminent collapse, potentially of two more U.S Banks I know I know you really had to be Nostradamus to figure this one out. The level of insight requires you to be able to do numbers and Analysis and but what do I know? Minutes after Power increased rates to 5.25 news broke out. The Pacquest, one of the two Banks is in deep according to the financial times. a load of big banks are now circling around pack West like Hungry Sharks looking to gobble up the bank, preferably at a massive discount.

like what JP Morgan got on Monday on First Republic Bank Pacques is apparently now urgently trying to find a buyer, but the problem is precedent because Silicon Valley Bank was first killed off by the regulator and then handed over to First Citizen Bank at a huge discount because well the shareholders all got told to off so there was nobody to pay, 72 billion dollars of assets were handed over with a 16.5 billion dollar discount. That's a 23 discount and all of the the risky that first citizen did not want was kept by the FDIC. Then we saw the Swiss government carve up Credit Suissen handed over to UBS. Then JP Morgan gets a huge discount to take over.

First Republic gets a 50 billion dollar loan and they have the IC guarantees 13 billion losses on top. So all the big banks are standing there like hyenas, salivating, looking at Pacquest and thinking we could make an absolute killing here. Maybe one of them is going to bite, but why would you go and buy this banquet something like full price? whatever that means right now when you can just go and get the US government to give you a massive discount, lend you some money to do the buying in the first place, and take out all the risk while you're at it. And of course, in each of the previous Bank collapses, the shareholders got officially told to off.

So if you're a shareholder in one of these Banks and they are in deep trouble, do you a wait until your shares become worthless? Do nothing or B sell everything before Mr Biden tells you to off as well. Well, in the hour or so since I started working in this video, shares of Western Alliance and back West have both collapsed by another 60 percent today. This is madness. Let's give Jerome Power a slow clap for being so epically bad at his job that a random guy on YouTube can literally predict exactly how bad he's going to up, exactly what he's going to say and what the immediate consequences of that fuck-up are going to be.

There are several different reasons why these banks are collapsing. Not giving about risk management is one of those reasons, as we saw with many of these clown banks that dealt with crypto kids Venture Capital firms and massively overvalued startups. Then there's also this growing problem of commercial loans that are risking blowing up the balance sheets of many Regional banks in the next three years. But while those problems are pretty bad, the worst problem now that is causing contagion really is the fact that shareholders of these banks have been completely wiped out.

while greedy Banks acquire those failing Banks assets for cents on the dollar Because while these Banks did have some issues, these Banks still did have assets. And those assets still did have some kind of value. But now every shareholder of every Bank outside the top four is panicking. and rightly so.

No Bank in the United States can survive a bank run where 40 or 50 of their deposits are withdrawn in the space of a few days. So what happens if your bank is next in line Because the media and FDIC collude and create a ridiculous amount of panic? Every bank has problems with carrying low yield Securities in a high yield environment. What if someone prints an exposure about your bank having this particular issue? Most Regional banks are carrying a tick and time bomb in the shape of commercial loans that have to be refinanced at some point? What happens if a client of your bank with a bunch of these loans goes barely up at some point in the next few months? Well, the decision to the investors of every collapse in Bank instead of bailing them out like what happened in 2008 is definitely popular with the masses. The masses love to screw the big bad bansters.

The investors do this. Rich Bastards. All the shareholders screw the system. Don't use taxpayer money to bail them out.

No. I Guess it's probably better not to tell these people that things like their pensions are invested in these Banks and the tens of billions of dollars through stealing these Banks from their shareholders are going straight into the pocket of JP Morgan The shareholders that don't get any money JP Morgan is buying assets from who exactly overnight pack West was apparently exploring options of raising more cash, but who in their right mind is going to buy shares or Securities from a bank that is about to collapse when they know if and when it does collapse, those shares become immediately worthless at the same time. Canada's TD Bank apparently scrapped their takeover at First Horizon this morning. This deal has been in the pipeline since February 2022 over a year and the bank has been sitting there waiting for approval apparently.

U.S Politicians had raised concerns about TD which is kind of the second largest bank becoming too big an American player and it bowed its treatment of U.S customers. And this is really funny because literally three days ago, those same U.S politicians waived the law the bans banking monopolies to let JP Morgan acquire First Republic So JP Morgan Breaking the legal 10 percent barrier by buying first Republic's 300 odd billion dollars worth of assets after no scrutiny, no proper bidding process, no accountability that is perfectly okay. but a tiny 13 billion dollar acquisition of a U.S lender by Canada's second biggest bank at a premium TD offered 37 above the share price at the time of the deal. Now that is a big No-No No, you can't possibly allow that to happen because what if instead of letting TD Bank do this deal, you could instead make the share price of First Horizon collapse completely, then quickly take over the lender and give them to someone like JP Morgan at a massive discount instead Am I right? You know what's worrying though? The fact is that all of this has happened in less than a day since the rate hike was announced.

We haven't even had the time or the chance to see all the other fun and games play out. We still have inflation data coming next week. Shelter will remain high because of the lag effect, but energy is going to continue collapsing because gas and oil are both falling. Oil is now cheaper than it was in December 2021 and natural gas is down to September 2020 prices.

We will see this play into inflation data on Wednesday next week. and when we see maze data in June this downward effect is going to be even stronger and the FED has now said that they will probably not do any more increases and they will also not decrease the rate for the rest this year, maybe for a few years. So what's going to happen in June July and August when the Fed rate will become way too restrictive for the rate of inflation? What happens if the economy is stalling? And the only reason it's stalling is because Jerome Power and his cronies want to play politics instead of doing their job. I Look forward to hearing the idiots come out out and say that nobody could have possibly predicted that they are over tightening.

Who could possibly have seen this coming? It is impossible to think that the economy might get hit when Fed raises rates without any good reason multiple times in a row. The big banks are, of course, absolutely loving it because they are busy announcing record profits one after another, because every time there is a rate hike, the bank's Revenue goes up, but they get to continue paying zero point or percent interest on their savings accounts. The restrictive interest rates will definitely affect the purchasing power of people getting mortgages because retail mortgages in the US are typically fixed for long periods like 30 years or whatever, Which means that high interest rates right now make getting a mortgage very unattractive. Businesses will stop borrowing money because they don't want to pay way over the odds on interest that sits way above inflation.

Investments will get postponed by a year or two or more, and the economy will slow down, which is kind of what is required to tame inflation. But now that we have had multiple interest rate hikes that have went gone way beyond that are completely unwarranted. The potential contraction of the US economy is likely to overshoot in a really bad way. The headline inflation data will not hit two percent anytime soon because shelter makes up one-third of the total and it's lagging by a long way.

There is nothing that the FED can do to make Shelter come down in the next few months. It's impossible, and this problem is even worse. When you look at core inflation. but at the same time, house prices have already flatlined and rent inflation has did below six percent in April for the first time since covid way lower than the 8.2 figure for shelter in the CPI index.

So we know that shelter is coming down at some point and all the other key inflation parameters are already on the way down in double time. I Remember during power speaking in October and early November 2021 saying inflation is transitory, don't you worry? it'll go away all by itself. And then he had to do a very embarrassing sudden U-turn and start increasing rates because nobody could have seen coming and those increases then had to increase. They had to go from 25 basis points to 50 basis points multiple 50 basis point increases.

and now I am sitting here looking at this clown making statements like we won't reduce these rates for years no matter what and I would laugh if it wasn't actually so incredibly sad. But time is a powerful thing, so let's see how this one plays out.