In this segment, we’re diving into the future of real estate in 2024 with the one and only David Childers. This is about getting you to become the agent who can break it down for your clients. We're arming you with insights on pricing trends, deciphering mortgage rate mysteries, and turning you into the go-to knowledge broker in your market. This isn't your average market update; it's your toolkit for conquering the evolving real estate game. Don't just keep up; get ahead!
In this segment, we discuss:
0:00 - Intro
10:40 - Anchoring bias
12:29 - Most agents vs good agents vs great agents
15:58 - What do we believe about this year?
18:10 - Mortgage rates trends
24:19 - Lock-in rates
26:23 - Top 3 reasons buyers paused on decision
31:45 - Home price appreciation rate
36:43 - 90-day work plan
Interested in a FREE Coaching Consultation? Click Here: https://tfi.media/3w1CxSj
For the majority of my life, I’ve been passionate and dedicated to changing lives by giving away the very best strategies, tactics, and mindset techniques to help you and your business succeed. Join me as we take this to level 10!
Let's Connect:
Website - https://TomFerry.com
Facebook - https://facebook.com/TomFerry
Instagram - https://instagram.com/TomFerry
Twitter - https://twitter.com/TomFerry
Podcast - https://TomFerry.com/Podcast
Events - https://www.tomferry.com/events
In this segment, we discuss:
0:00 - Intro
10:40 - Anchoring bias
12:29 - Most agents vs good agents vs great agents
15:58 - What do we believe about this year?
18:10 - Mortgage rates trends
24:19 - Lock-in rates
26:23 - Top 3 reasons buyers paused on decision
31:45 - Home price appreciation rate
36:43 - 90-day work plan
Interested in a FREE Coaching Consultation? Click Here: https://tfi.media/3w1CxSj
For the majority of my life, I’ve been passionate and dedicated to changing lives by giving away the very best strategies, tactics, and mindset techniques to help you and your business succeed. Join me as we take this to level 10!
Let's Connect:
Website - https://TomFerry.com
Facebook - https://facebook.com/TomFerry
Instagram - https://instagram.com/TomFerry
Twitter - https://twitter.com/TomFerry
Podcast - https://TomFerry.com/Podcast
Events - https://www.tomferry.com/events
Um, take a second very quickly in your notes. We're g to take just a minute here before I Bring on David Childers I Want you just to stop for a second and I want you to write down what are the one or two or three things that I am going to do that is going to generate like what's the fastest thing, what's the easiest thing that I can do and then for many of you because you're so Advanced I See so many of our coaching clients here. You're going to go for a little more of the advanced stuff, but we want to be mindful we don't want to get overwhelmed. We're only halfway through I've got David Childers coming up next with all of the market updates.
You need to be the knowledge broker that are going to help you create more content and be more informative and become the obvious choice. Then we're going to buyer agency and we know how important that is today with Coach Christie And then we're going to finish with a little bit on just hey, what's happening with all these lawsuits from the guy that knows it better than anybody else Jack Miller Now we're halfway through I know that went very quick. So so I wrote down a note for everybody and and I want you just to in your notes. Write this down if if you don't have to put any comments just just kind of you and I have a conversation.
don't worry about typing anything, just stay with me if you're already feeling slightly overwhelmed, right? it goes back to the question of you know when I asked you earlier today hey, is your is your marketing plan a five out of five or is it sit somewhere around a one? The the challenge that I think many of us face in an environment like this: when you get all these ideas plus all the ideas that you already had. the question I like to ask people, is this: do you Do you find yourself? Do you get more done when you have more support? You don't have to I don't have to see it in the comments, just just in your mind. Do you get more done when you have someone supporting you? Do you get more done when you have more structure? The answer is of course I do right like I I think about you know this morning going to the gym like I didn't want to go to the gym but I know I've got a trainer there so I know I've got to show up and and it's funny like I know how to go to the gym I know go to the gym, work out, do my thing but when I'm with my trainer right I seem to push harder I seem to do more. But here's what's also great about it.
What's also amazing about whether it's Oscar here or Brad back in California is both of them have unique insights. They're the ones that are. They're looking subtly at the way I'm doing it and they're monitoring my food. They're monitoring my sleep.
They're paying attention to the details. They're going to help me have more energy, have more Vitality live longer, be in a better State and and look I don't know about you but like I know I should diet and exercise I know I should eat great and I should exercise more. You know it. and I Know It And Yet because I have the structure of Oscar here and Brad there and you know Mary who comes and gives me IV drips because I've got the structure in place. They know so much more about it that I don't have to I get to. just keep doing my work, keep following my schedule, keep making my calls, keep doing the things I got to do and I've got these Outsiders that are making sure that I'm paying attention to the details that I'm doing the right thing, that I'm doing the right number of reps, that I'm pushing extra hard that I'm going the extra mile that I'm doing the things I need to do to stay healthy to stay with great Vitality Well my friend, that's how I look at 2024 in your business if you know you do better with support, If you know you do better with structure, right? If you know that, you have to ask yourself what am I going to put in place in 2024 to give me the support I need to give me the structure I need and maybe just maybe like someone like a Jason or a Jimy who can continue to give me the insights I need So we did a little survey of our clients in December right? So every month we bring on you know new coaching members. You know every single month and lots of our coaching members are here. Matter of fact, one of my coaches Larry Webb was just talking about losing 59 pounds since the summit last year.
God Bless you Larry I'm so proud of you I I Can't wait to see less of you more often. Here's here's what I know my friends I actually wrote it down If you know you do better when you're supported, If you know you do better, when you know you've got structure in place like you've got to show up, You got to perform form, you got to do it, and then you've got someone that's super insightful that knows what to do. Then you're going to get better results. So the note that I wrote down is in our survey of just our December clients, right? Just the people that joined us in December They called us and said hey, I know I need help You know the Market's getting better I want to get ahead of the curve There was three things that people wanted us the most and I'm curious how this will resonate for you.
The number one thing that we asked them why did you join us they said I need to save time and now we can interpret that a lot of different ways. We said well, what do you mean they said I know that if I don't know how to do it I'm going to do it wrong or I'm going to take too much time to do it I'm gonna waste too much time. the Market's getting better. The rates are coming down I Got to make way more money this year I've got to save time.
Make sure you get me a coach that can help me save time in 2024, right? Save time. Don't waste your time. The second thing was they said I need to save money Last year was hard, right? So I can't afford to spend money on things that don't work and I can't afford to spend my time on things that don't work. So whether it's reviewing my budget and helping me make adjustments, or it's just simply look at what I'm doing and don't let me do dumb stuff, hold me accountable, coach help me save more time, help me save more money. And of course the third one was obvious. Hey, I need to make more money in 2024 I have to make up for last year I have to make up for last year I gotta pay off some debts I got to save more money I got to invest more money I got to put myself in a better position So if you are like the hundreds of people that joined us in December I'm going to make you guys a little bananas offer I Want you to call my office right? Put up the number it's 1 1800, 624 9575 1 1800 624 9575 They're going to put it up on the screen 1800 624 9575 it you call my office I'm going to give you you know till the end of today so you can call them right now if you want because the phones are GNA be busy and I know a lot of you are interested and Jessica I love you I'm in coaching I know so you're going to love this when you call my office I Want you to say one of two things and you're going to decide what's right for you. You're you're either gonna say I need a marketing coach I need a marketing coach like Jimmy or Jason someone that can make sure that I'm executing on the marketing because I'm good with contracts I'm good with clients I'm good with negotiations I'm organized I need a marketing coach and you're going to say that and then we're going to go through the 237 business coaches we have and we're going to get you a marketing coach right to make sure that that is what you get fulfilled on to save you time to save you money and to make you money. Or you're just going to say make me a banan's offer, Make me a banan's offer, Make me a banan's offer, Make me a banan's offer and the bananas offers.
We're going to make you a crazy offer to make it a no-brainer for you to become one of our coaching clients. Now this would be the most B offer we do all year. so it's January I would encourage you like you know what I would say to you. It's it's the metaphor that I use all the time before I bring up David Childers in a minute it's the metaphor I use all the time which is I say to myself I can cut my own hair but I don't It's the same reason that when my wife says hey, we should sell that duplex like you know I could I could probably list it for sale by owner First of all, wouldn't that be aeral of Tom Ferry listed one of his properties for sale B owner like you would all like kill me, right? But you know there's 's a percentage of the population that simply thinks they can do it on their own right, that they can simply do it on their own And yet we know what happens when you hire an expert.
When you hire a professional and you get someone like my trainer Oscar or Brad who understand the nuances, get to know me, get to know the details. Then they bring all that skill set and all that expertise to help me achieve my goals. So if you want that, if you're as committed as I am to 2024 I encourage you to call my office. at the minimum you have to call and say hey, let's schedule an appointment I Want to talk if you want the bananas offer but you have to do it today. If you do it tomorrow, it's just regular coaching just like the 18 people that signed up yesterday. So this is a nuts offer for you. You deci I Want a marketing coach? or just make me a bananas offer? Either one is fine and we're going to get you the right coach for you to ensure your success all right now. With all that said, don't be a Fsbo in 2024, What of the most important things you're going to need to do right? So someone said if you got an email for those people that are not in America you can call my office if you're not in.
America We coach people all over the world right? Here's the deal you ready. One thing we know is the Knowledge Broker you heard Jason Say it. Jimmy Say it. I've said it.
The Knowledge Broker is the one that is more likely to help more customers because they know the facts. They know the data. They can tell people this is what the best people are saying. And when someone says I read this article and I read this headline and it said the whole world's falling apart You know what to say because you've got the facts and you've got the data and that's what David Shers is gonna bring us today.
So I just looked and there is David Childers So David are you ready? We've got thousands of rock stars from around the world. Everybody needs to know what to say in this market to help people move forward. Nobody better than my friend. Also another man wearing a sweater with glasses looking good my friend.
David Thank you so much for being a part of this. God Bless you in advance and take it away my friend. I give you sounds good thank you Tom I'm excited to be here and get to spend just a few minutes. you know talking about starting big.
You know here we are in January and looking forward to uh, the year you know what is today, the 18th uh of January We've got the entire year in front of us and we can make decisions just like we just talked about Jason's session. What? Tom said the discipline to understand what's happening in this market and I hope over the next you know 30 minutes or so I'll be able to give that to you because let let me tell you what I see right now I have a chance to certainly in December and even this month to spend time talking to agents and you know if you were to think about this from an economic term you know we deal in a lot of you know economic uh, data and and housing market data. Here at keeping current matters, there's a term they use um in the business that is called an anchoring bias and what an anchoring bias is. it's sort of this thought that what happened in the past is going to then uh, portend what's going to happen in the future right? So if I have an anchoring bias in my mind of the last six months, I'm gonna allow that to then influence me in this new year. Here's the thing I came to say to you: don't look in the rearview mirror right now look ahead. My goal over the next few minutes is to give you a perspective on this market and I hope it's one that um you take and and if you have a team you share it with your team. If your team is all on here today that you make a commitment to get this out into the world to get it out into the hands of the buyers and sellers, the folks that you're working with so that they understand what's going on so that literally you can explain what's happening in this market and we have that ability. So as always I'm going to share my slides I've got a great uh uh group of slides here that our team here at keeping current matters has put together for this uh event.
You know every time I get a chance to do something with Tom I know I'm speaking to leaders I'm speaking to um, the best of the best that are out there and I want to go through this to give you that forward-looking perspective on this Market Okay, so let's start here. Uh, I'll give you just a little bit of of that perspective right here. Start with this: Most agents know what's happening I think we can agree with that. Know what's happening in the business? Good good agents understand what's happening right now, but great agents can explain what's happening and that's our goal at keeping current matters.
To equip you to give you the information so that you can explain to your ecosystem, your database, your buyers, your sellers. Anybody that you're talking about you say you think about buying, selling a home that you can explain exactly what's happening. You know one of the best things you can ever ask someone when maybe a topic comes up a prices or inventory or mortgage rates is share with me what you've heard. Tell me what you've heard because like Tom said, there's so much misinformation out there.
There's so much that maybe is is captured in a headline or captured in, uh, an area that people look at. They go. You know what? I I I Heard that this thing wasn't going well I I Heard that I shouldn't buy a home or or maybe I even in the last month came in contact with some of my family that said I wouldn't do it right now. Okay, so we we'll We'll work for the next few minutes and we'll talk about that because right now we sit on the front end of 2024 and I have this sort of this magnifying glass here the the bullseye to hit the bullseye.
I Think there are two key things right now you have to have and I would write these down. If you've got something to write with, go ahead and grab it. Uh, and they're They're two words that I want to give you one. The first one is confidence.
Do I have the confidence that I understand what's happening in the business right now and I'll give you my perspective I give you keeping current matters perspective coming up here in just a minute on on what we will see coming this year but I have to have the confidence that I understand it today. I'm going to share a lot of information. You don't have to agree with everything I'm going to say, but what I always want to try to convey is have a relevant Market Opinion based upon a fact not just an opinion right? And if I have it based upon facts I can then be confident I can have the conviction to stay to to to to share that with somebody that I'm working with. second word: I I would add courage for us to step out into this Market If we're confident in it, we then can have the courage to have the conversation to to make the calls to to do what we want to do. you know to to put content out in the market. you know if you follow keeping current matters on Instagram We've posted several pieces of content over the last several weeks. I would watch those uh th those posts and say okay, this is something that's really, uh, taking off, it's causing a lot of conversation, it's causing a lot of interaction and I would then model some of the post that I have after that certainly want you to become a KCM member and use that content. I'm going to give you a great opportunity to to to become a KCM member if you've thought about it.
maybe you were in the past because here's what I will tell you about this year: KCM members are going to have a front row seat to this Market turning. It's already starting to happen and I'm going to show you that and in some of the things that we see coming up this year. but you're going to be able to be on top of it with the discipline to understand what's happening. So let's hop into this real quick.
What do we believe about this year? This year will be the year? of the fives. Three points Real quick. mortgage rates will be in the fives in the second half of the year and I'm going to show you why uh, I'm making that statement Why I believe that second five and a half million uh in Total Home Sales that's the existing home sales new home sales and we believe the approximate uh home price appreciation rate will be 5% this year, you're the fives okay and a year that certainly I believe will be better than 202 three incrementally and I want I want to I want to maybe position your mind before I hop into all this with a charge for you. You know when I was in college I had an um unbelievable opportunity my wife and I did to work for a leadership author named John Maxwell some of you maybe have heard John or read a book um that John wrote phenomenal leadership teacher uh and and probably one of the best uh around and he he had a a quote that he would always used that oh it stuck in my mind even to this day and I grabbed it for uh, our time together right now to share it with you and he said this he he used to always say a leader is one who knows the way, who goes the way and who shows the way and that's our job today. I'm gonna give you everything today, hopefully where you can take a look at it and go. Okay I know the way. then you got to walk in that direction, you know? Jason gave you a ton of ideas just a moment ago I I I had a chance to to sit in on on some of that um to to walk in that direction to implement and then my job if I'm if I'm listening. If I'm you is show others the way, show my my way and help them see their way forward in this market.
Okay, I'm convinced if we can do that we can make a difference. We will go forward confidently in this market. Have the courage to step into it. Okay so let's start right here.
Mortgage rates will be in the in the fives in the second half of the year. Now this is. this is interesting. I'll give you a couple of you know sort of perspectives on why we believe that what we see happening.
But first we'll start here. Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid six% range and kind of see that bouncing around based on the economic data that may come out one day or another. But here's what we can tell sometime in the in early November late October rates the 30-year fixed rate peaked and has been on this downward Trend coming into the year right and whether you know 6 and 3/4 6 and a half bouncing around in that area, we've seen a lot of improvement there, you know we. We did a um a video you can go on keeping current matter Instagram It was about two weeks ago on the average mortgage payment has improved by just over $300 since that point of the 30-year fixed.
Peak Uh, fixed rate peaking. We need to be talking about that. Everybody for the last year has talked about how affordability has been challenged over the last year's rates have risen. We need to be vocal and I think it's something this year we have to do to help people see.
Okay, we are getting improvements in affordability. We are getting improvements in the cost to borrow money to buy a home. Dean Baker said this. He said it also appears rates are falling now.
they will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows. Nobody's calling for that. although we could soon see rates under 6% which would be low by pre Great Recession standards. So when I say I believe we'll be in five in the fives in the second half of the year, that might be 5.99 but I believe we'll be there.
And and I believe our job right now is to be ready to be working for when that comes, you know I was um in New York City yesterday with a a great partner of ours and somebody asked a question you know I hear from a lot of people Is this frenzy gonna going to come back in the market and I want to address that? Nobody's calling for rates to go down to two and three quarter like we saw uh during the pandemic and post pandemic. But but certainly psychologically, we get back into the FES. We see more activity. maybe not to the degree of what we saw two years ago, but more activity. Why do we believe we're heading in that direction? Well, one one instance is Goldman Sachs. We now forecast three consecutive 25 basis Uh, Cuts in March May and June on the Federal Reserve on the FED funds rate to reset the policy rate from a level that Powell has recently taken to describe as well into restrictive ter territory rather than just restrictive. So we'll see if that holds true. Uh in in in coming up, but no doubt the forecast for this year as a Federal Reserve will begin cutting the FED funds rate.
Certainly that will be Uh, an indication that we're moving through some of the inflation. Some of the issues that we faced as an economy that will then bode well for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Two things that I would tell you if you want to be the expert in mortgage rates and I'm not suggesting anybody, uh needs to come in and become a secondary Market expert on mortgage rates. But you have to know this for sure.
For the last 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has moved in unison with the 10year treasury rate. You know they have this sort of. The symbiotic relationship is one moves as the 10-year treasury uh, yield moves. Then the 30-year fixed mortgage rate moves.
The average spread you see in the middle here uh is 1.72 172 basis points. If you literally took the 10year treasury add of 172 basis points, you would get the approximate 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Well in. January Right now, where are we at? 263 basis points.
If you see this, uh, this orange block here now we're you know, almost a hundred basis points above the average. We believe that will come down. We'll get some relief there, okay, in the spread. So we'll get some relief In In in the tenure and we'll get some relief in the spread.
And oh, by the way, it's already happening. The average spread going back to the beginning of last year was 2.83 It sits at 2.63 Right now, we've already seen a 20 basis point reduction in that. That is a good thing. That's why I can optimistically say okay, we see the technical signs in the second half of the year that we will be into the fives.
Okay, as we look forward to that. I Think getting that message out, talking about the improvements in affordability, talking about the improvements. Uh what that means For folks that are looking, you know we. We did a um a graphic that I'm G to show you just in in a moment about the number of people last year that gave up their home search due to mortgage rates.
So we're we're going to look at that because that will change this year. Okay, so technical signs: air seat see us getting in the fives in the second half of the Year second five and a half million Total Home Sales that's that's existing home sales, that's new builds and and let's talk about that for just a moment. Our job is to be out in the market to be active in the market so that we can help build inventory and have an impact on this number. You know, probably one of the biggest preventers uh, of inventory coming into the market are those that have a preferable mortgage rate. I'm always astounded when I see this graphic um 78.7 of current loans FHA FH Fhfa It's easy for me to say um, at time of origination are less than 5% That's unbelievable. Almost 80% of loans at time of origination under 5% And good for those homeowners, that's a very, very good thing, right? And they've said, hey, we're not going anywhere Now There are people that will you. You have a life event, you have a child, You have something happen in your life where you say okay, we have to now make a decision because of that. People absolutely will and and I'll take it further.
If you have a low rate, that probably means you're sort of locked in. You know there's this term in the business of rate lock which I'm not talking about lock a rate on a on a new um purchase, but people are locked in their homes because of the rate. You know, if you have something a 30-year fixed under 3% you're not selling. You're like I'm good.
I'm gonna wait. If you're three to four, you're probably not doing it four to five. you're gonna think about it. That's why we believe.
hey, we get in the fives we get. we get sort of psychologically. people start to go okay I I Want to do something different here? Well, Lance Lambert had a very interesting take on this and I want to give that to you you. Because he said this, he said we might be at Peak lock in effect meaning rate lock on people.
Some move uper lifestyle sellers may be coming to terms with the fact that three and four% mortgage rates aren't returning any time soon. If the lock in effect eases up further in 2024, it could help boost existing home sales from the very low levels experienced at the end of 2023. So you you think about the number of homes that have a preferable interest rates? we're starting to see okay rates come down. We could be at that Peak lock in effect in the rearview mirror.
I'm not saying that there aren't people that aren't going to make that decision, but certainly that will ease up. It'll sort of thaw as we go into uh into this year. Erica flemens from Bright MLS said homeowners who are selling aren't influenced by rates with 90.5% of successful November sellers stating they were going to sell regardless of what mortgage rates were. okay.
so so folks selling or saying hey, we got to do it for one reason or another life EV event. Whatever the case is, we've got to sell. Now here's the graphic that I that I talked to you about I would grab this and I'd take a picture of it right now is I show it to you here in just a minute and and put it on social media tag Tom Tag keeping current matters you know and get the message out there. But Bri MLS Did a survey and and looked at buyers that paused their decision to buy a home over the last 12 months. and the number one reason for pausing buying a home was mortgage rate. 72% of buyers paused their decision to to to buy a home because of mortgage rates. Now that makes sense but here's what I will guarantee you that will change this year. That will absolutely change because we see this environment where rates are coming down.
People will say okay, we didn't do it last year, that term or or that reality of pent up demand people that put off making a decision. You know one of the best analogies I I've ever heard from KCM founder Steve Harney is we're not uh McDonald's we're an Apple store. You know in the analogy is a we live in a town and a big snowstorm comes in and and sort of blankets the town. Well if you own the McDonald's you lose breakfast, lunch and dinner that day when the town's shut down, people don't make a decision.
Um, to not eat during that time. They just eat at home right? They don't go out, They don't go uh in in and go to a local restaurant because they can't Well, if you own an Apple Store what do people do if you were going to buy an iPad that day, You just delay that. You buy it the next day or the next day whenever you can get back out of your house. We're not a restaurant, we're the Apple Store Just because people abandoned their search last year because of mortgage rates, That doesn't mean they said we're not going to ever do anything.
They just said okay, we're not going to do it right now and I believe that will be a driver not only of buyers in the market, but we know from uh, certainly statistics the majority of buyers are also Sers that'll free up inventory you one of the areas that will contribute to sales this year. No doubt one of the areas that I think has been a bright spot. who's one in this market are bu ERS You know if you look at the National Association home builders. They say the market currently requires a higher level of new construction inventory due to a persistent lack of resale inventory.
So Builders are trying to build as fast as they can and newly built homes? Listen to this. Available for sale accounted for 31% of Total Home Sales available for sale in November compared to an approximate 12% historical average. no doubt Builders are winning. Why are they Bu? Why are they winning? They're taking concessions from the sale, applying those, and buying down rates.
where people can get in a home they can get a preferred rate Builders Have done it well this past year and you know a lot of times. Whether you know if you're listening today, you know and You' you've had a hesitation of working with builders for one reason or another. If if you have a seller that's going to go into new construction, you free up that that inventory. That's the bottom line. And so I think I think looking at who's in your Market who's building, what are they doing and being educated, being vocal about that is critical. You know one of the things that I said and I Believe this with all my heart. we s right here in January with a front row seat to this Market starting to turn right. Not that we're going to see tomorrow or or the next week.
a You know, a return to the frenzy that we saw in the last couple of years. but you shouldn't expect to wonder I wonder what next month is going to hold for real estate this year? You should expect for the market to get better each month. incrementally better. not overnight, not not not some you know scenario here that's not not attainable.
but for things to improve in and in the rearview mirror in 2023 to improve drastically over that. The reason I bring that up is I Want to give you a chance to join Km? Maybe you were a KCM member in the past, maybe you've thought about it. But if you go to Trcm you can take a picture of this slide and hit it. Uh, later today.
trim.com tomf There's an offer for you to become a KCM member to be educated in this market. We're going to do everything we can to give you everything you need to be the knowledge broker to be the one that understands and says hey, let me share with you what's happening with prices. Let me share with you what's happening with mortgage rates with inventory with all the things that we know are important for somebody that's looking to my home, you know I I Always say this: I'm here in our office in Richmond Virginia Uh today broadcasting live and there's a wall in here that says we believe every family should feel confident when buying and selling a home and that's what drives us. That's what drives us every single day to give you what you need to make a difference in those that you serve.
And so I hope you'll take. Take us up on that. Go check it out if it's not right for you, you certainly cancel your free trial. but but get the information you need to make the impact with those that you're working with.
Our last: Point here in about five five minutes or so, I'll turn it back over to Tom I know Jeremy Davis is coming up. Uh, amazing Amazing information with PA Ment Love Jeremy and all that he does but 5% will be the approximate home price appreciation rate. You know it's It's so interesting to sit where we sit right now. Having just wrapped up 2023.
You know, as we were wrapping up 2022, people said homes are going to lose 5, 10, maybe more uh, in value over the next 12 months and we didn't see that happen. I I Think because of a lot of different factors. but but but but certainly the lack of available inventory across the country has kept upward pressure on prices. You know, it kind of drives prices up.
Matter of fact. Uh, we're starting to look at, you know, some of the same home sales wrapping up this year. It runs in a rears and I'll talk about it here in just a minute. but we're going to have a good year this year. Somewhere six or s% in home price appreciation nationally. That's a far cry from what you know. Sort of folks on YouTube or uh. people that were out there talking about the Doom and Gloom of the business got massively wrong coming into 2023.
Nobody's talking about that right? You can, You can be wrong all those times and uh and and sort of get away with it. But what we want to do is we want to have the information so that we can counter that narrative Because listen, it will be talked about in the our business. It will absolutely be talked about our choice. Our job I would say is to be the one talking about it.
Help from: Coral Logic said: with mortgage rates dropping demand for homes in early 2024 is likely to be strong and will again put pressure on prices. Remember that upward pressure on prices growing similar to Trends observed in early 2023, most most markets will continue to reach new home price highs over the course of 2024. So so what are experts saying about home prices? Let me give that to you. This is a a graphic that a lot of people want to use and want to get out there.
I'd grab a picture of it. uh if you're watching today and say hey, look I'm If you have a question about home prices, let's sit down. Let's talk about it and it's this right here. The eight Um forecasters that we survey and we track here at: KCM Here's what they're saying: a couple saying slight depreciation, the other six saying appreciation the average of 1.6 Tom I I See you back on now I think they're wrong.
Let me be clear: I think they're wrong I think we'll see about 5% home price appreciation coming up this year. and I Also think forecasters are a little bit nervous right now to say we don't we We We don't want to stick our neck out there. We don't want to be the one to say something or or to maybe be more bullish on that, but that is is a number that we're going to stay on top of for you so that you can then show people what what's going to happen with home prices. you know.
The other Um survey that we like to look at is the Home Price Expectation survey and they say okay, what's going to happen now and for the next five years And if you see this 2023 through 2028, very normal home price appreciation for the next five years, So does it make sense to buy a home right now? Well, if it's the right time for you and you can afford it, Absolutely. But there's this narrative. There's this thought from a lot of people that gush: I don't know if I do it right now I don't I don't know what's going to happen to prices. And yet when you start to look at all the signs, everything out there, we know that we're in a very, you know, forward-looking normalized Market On the average home bought in this country, that's worth about $72,000 in equity. And certainly there there are a boatload of non-financial uh, benefits, uh, to buying a home. But the financial ones are there now. There's there's also this topic in a lot of places right now where people say it's cheaper to rent than to buy and there's there's there's validity to that argument. But I will tell you the one thing that always will torpedo that and it's Equity Whenever you add Equity to the conversation, it doesn't.
It doesn't make sense. So remember that as people are talking about. should I Rent should I buy. It's cheaper to rent.
Well, not when you add Equity Anybody body that lives indoors. Listen, anybody that lives indoors makes a mortgage payment. They either make theirs or their landlords. That's the truth and we want to help people make a wise decision.
You know I Talked about this past year. This is a look at K Schiller and Fhfa We've seen we. We've turned the corner in prices in this country relative to real estate. Be confident in that.
Be confident in being the knowledge broker about that home. Price gains in the core logic S&P K Sher Index have increased by about 7% since the beginning of the year and are 1% higher than at the peak of 2022, recovering all losses recorded in the second half. So here's what: I'll wrap on Tom Tom's back up. We can talk for a minute there there.
Tom But couple of things over the next 90 days Start this year off: big, stay focused. Realizing this is an election year and housing will be fodder that both sides will use to distract people To say this is the reason you can't buy a home. This is what's going on with Uh with mortgage rates. This is what's happening and our job is to get the truth out there.
Two: Become an expert on everything Real Estate. Be the expert. Be the knowledge broker on everything. Third, broadcast the mortgage rate and its impact on affordability.
That is a big topic. Homes became I Told you just in the last couple of months. $300 on average per month. More affordable.
That's huge. That's really, really good and stay focused on action and education. It's all about action. It's all about being the educator in this market to be able to deliver the confidence that is needed for people to make a powerful decision in what they do.
So Tom I'm gonna I'm gonna pause right here. Anybody that that is interested in saying I want to become a Casc member? we want to invite you in because I We'll tell you I'll go back to what I said you'll get a front row seat to watch this Market turn and be out in front of it with the best information That is it. That is it. David Thank you so much I mean you know you and I spent so much time trying to help people whether it was through the pandemic before the pandemic and now after with road map and everything else we've done, you know I'm the just the biggest fan I'm so grateful for you. um you know we got people from all over the world watching right now so I know for some of my friends are like oh where do I get this information for you know my country in Europe or for Mexico so Google Google Google Google and then hopefully one day KCM will get to every country around the world and help you guys um David I Heard a funny line recently from one of my clients. uh, went asked hey is now a good time to buy His response was has there ever been a bad time to own That's good and I thought you know what, there's a lot of smart agents out there. they're going to use that exact same line. All right, we got to keep moving David Thank you so much I appreciate it Trc.com tomf let's keep going now.
Jeremy Davis My dear friend Jeremy there he is up next!.
Great VDO to watch for the Saturday