Welcome back to money talks where palantir ceo warns of a nuclear war, but every time after he speaks the stock price makes me want to go to the liquor store, i'm your unofficial host, admit always trying to be legit here with tom nash and justin. Oh, and today we discuss if bill ackman will actually get the market to finally plateau today, we're going to be going over our hot takes. Second, if bill ackman is actually going to allow the fed to raise interest rates exponentially third pound. Your ceo warning of a nuclear war and should we be taking him seriously and then finally, adam newman, is back and better than ever with a new blockchain carbon-based startup.

Can he pull it off? Don't go anywhere, we'll be right back! Welcome back to money talks! Everybody! Thank you for joining us on another wednesday morning. Edition of this amazing amazing show we're going to start off with some hot takes tom. Let's go with you. What's your hot take for today, my hot take is, i literally can't decide what is worse.

The fact that you just set up a topic by asking if bill ackman, would allow the fed to raise interest rates or the fact that you're wearing a frank, frying pen on your head. I know you're retiring this joke so now the context is the context. Is i was like yo? I just got a haircut yesterday. My hair looks kind of kind of iffy.

I didn't really put gel in this. I was like tom. You could probably make a joke about it. Tom says before the show starts admit you think you can just tell me what to make jokes about.

I'm not going to make jokes about your hair. It has to be natural and then he's like i'm going to retire the hair jokes. I, like the hair comment below, if you like the hair, i think it looks better than the mop it was before. I think you're approaching peaky blinders, it looks pretty cool to me.

He looks like a coin brothers character. Bro with this haircut. Look at him. Look on a serious note.

My topic for today for the hotex is a very interesting take from kevin o'leary very entertaining guy. I used to love him on shark tank and now he's on tv a lot, and i i really like his takes usually, but this one was a little bit off. He was talking about how there's zero percent of recession, which is somebody who made a hundred percent predictions. I can tell you it's not a good idea, kevin to say zero percent they're going to come back and bite you in the ass, but essentially his logic was that the spending is going up.

But my guy kevin it's exactly what we were talking about. Look at target and look at walmart, the spending is going up, revenues are going up, but the margins are going down because everything is way more expensive and this rationale was well. Supply. Chains are going to get better and energy is a self-inflicted wound which we can fix.

Both these things are going to take years to resolve. I mean, in the meantime, we're seeing margins of retail and consumer discretion absolutely getting beaten up. So i don't understand his take. Sorry, kevin all right, justin, your hot tick for today my hot take is that i just a little background on this every morning, at like 5, 15 5 30.

I'm i'm watching cnbc, while i'm getting ready for the day. So we can produce this early morning, show for all of you and i'm listening to squawk box and uh before that. There's another show but squawk box, specifically starting at 6am eastern um. It's andrew ross, sorkin, it's joe kearney and uh.

Her name is becky becky, quick right uh on this on the screen and i'm becky heman uh becky ham, oh yeah, whatever it's becky uh, it's not about it's not! Is this your theme, whatever my hot take, is that i think there's been a a a material change in in like how they've been presenting the news. I think the producers want them to be much more aloof and relatable, but these people are very much like rigid, uhly trained newscasters, and so it comes off as like very very awkward. Sometimes i don't know if any of you have noticed this in specifically squawk box, especially joe kearney, who like says the most out of pocket. Things like like unrelated to the newscast uh angela sorkin is always trying to like give you super straights, you're, professional and then, and then joe will come in and be like yeah.

But what about that? Owl in australia that that they adopted in the zoo and then andrew ross and then and then andrew and becky are just like what. How do we, even it's just the most awkward thing. I think that traditional tv uh are they're kind of failing at being relatable. I mean you just look at them trying and it's kind of cringy, but but the dynamic has worked for a while.

That's why they're still on i like this show, i think it's like it's a little bit of a slapstick like i watch it and uh. It's funny like when they have these non-scripted exchanges in between segments, and i like joe's confusion. It makes me kind of laugh. You mean andrews yeah, andrew's like what is going on no, but i like how joe comes up with this and joe's a lot smarter than he makes it seem.

He plays this character a little bit of or oh, i don't know what's going on, but he's actually smart dude. But i like how you know it's a little bit of a nonsense, kind of show yeah and i remember they were talking about bitcoin and then, like he just started, saying this out-of-pocket stuff about bitcoin as if like he didn't, really understand it, and it just comes Off as very like boomery, it is funny it makes it a little bit more entertaining, but it is very cringey to me. That's my hot. Can we say boomery in 2022? I don't know if i can say that boomerang justin is right.

Her woman is rebecca, quick, yeah dude. What are you, what are you saying who's lucky hammond, i don't know who is becky hammer tom who is becky hammond. Is this an ex? Is this the where's, this guy, i'm gon na call your wife and be like assistant? First topic of the day bill ackman, he has tweeted a lot of tweets, we're not going to read all of them, but his sort of main thesis in his in his first tweet says: inflation's out of control, inflation expectations are getting out of control and the market Needs to react to this and the way for the market to to react to this in a meaningful way is for the fed to just rip off the band-aid. Raise interest rates, get us to about three percent so that markets can self-adjust.

So he went on a long sort of thread about this basically saying this is what we need to do, and this is obviously his opinions he's known for being a more active person in the market who has a significant voice. Justin, let's start off with you, is the thesis of what he's saying. Does it have marriage? Should we just rip off the band-aid really raise interest rates right now and then let the market regulate over the next five years. Yeah, i mean, i think, he's being captain obvious here and being on a little bit on a pedestal um.

You know, i think he maybe he missed the the good limelight after the netflix flop. He had um, but i mean like okay yeah. The answer is yes. We all know the fed is behind the curve and they need to catch up and they need to raise rates now.

Um. I think what the fed is doing is they're kind of playing uh in between the lines they're being quicker than they were, but they're not being full blown uh scare, the markets. So it's only 50 basis points and i don't know i think they are hoping that demand destruction happens and saves their butt. But honestly nobody knows how quickly demand destruction is going to happen.

So bill's saying just rip the band-aid on and then cause the demand destruction. You know i i don't know like i'm, not a fed chairman. I think rates need to go up to fight inflation. I would hope that rates don't go the the concern that bill, i think, is not is not giving enough credence to.

Is that if you raise rates too far too fast too aggressively literally money dries up, because no lenders, when things are going up that fast lenders will just stop so then you have a credit crunch potentially and a money crunch, and then you might actually send the Economy into uh like a much deeper recession than it otherwise would um. I think we're seeing signs that demand destruction. Demand is already getting destruction, destructed destroyed. I guess sorry, that's right! Word.

Uh destroyed um. Naturally, in the face of inflation basket, sizes are growing down. I think he's being a little bit aggressive here, but yeah there's yeah so tom, would it be a mistake for the fed to just like raise interest rates like crazy? If justin is, is right that demand may get distracted, uh naturally just destroyed right. I made that mistake destroyed you, you parrot, what's going on with you, bro distracted justin got in my head anyway.

Should we should we destroy the demand, or should we artificially destroy the demand? Well, what bill is saying - and i agree with justin - he needs a layup. You know when you go in there what's happening with bill. Ackman is very similar to the dating world. You just went on a date and uh you got shut down.

You shot your shot. You got shot down by a hot girl and now you're looking for an easier date where you can get a layup and get you know, get your mojo back. So it's taking a very easy topic to attack, because everybody knows the fed isn't raising interest rates fast enough, whether it's because the fed is fearful from circumventing their own attempt at creating a soft landing, whether it's the u.s debt looming above preventing interest rates from going Up whatever the case may be, it's a consensus that the fed is not raising interest as fast as theoretically or academically should be raised to address an eight percent inflation. If you go by the standard in the industry, which is the taylor rule, which says that you take the base inflation, which is two percent in the us, you take the current inflation, which is eight percent.

The delta between them is six percent. You multiply it by two, which is twelve percent. That's the interest rate you need so for an eight percent inflation in the us. You need twelve percent interest, so they're way off that there's no, i mean it's an easy layup and mohammed dalarian has been saying this for four months, maybe even years so he's kind of jumping on board a very obvious train.

I agree with justin. The thing is, as far as is he right or not. I think that he might be on the right side of history this time, because as much as you are fearful from crashing the market, whether it's the stock market or crashing demand and consumption, the problem is - and i mentioned this in the beginning - look at target. Look at walmart, if you don't do it, inflation is going to eat away at the margins of these businesses, causing layoffs, causing less consumption, less demand anyways.

So it's like saying: well, i'm not going to take this medicine. This antibiotics, because it's going to make me feel bad for a week. Well, my guy, if you're not going to take it you're, going to be dead in a month, so my feel might be a good idea to take the antibiotics. So, even though i think bill had a big booboo and speaking from a guy who had big booboos lately i mean i i think on this point - he's 100 correct.

I i just want to respond and say i still yet again do not understand the obsession. Well, i do understand it because it's an easy bogeyman of saying the fed they're at fault. They, they are the the um, they are the savior of the economy, but this is a weird one. He even said in this tweet thread.

He said: there's structural uh, tight, tightness in energy and imbalances in energy ag and food housing and labor. Why don't we go fix that as a society? I think that's a treasury department, that's an executive department, that's a congressional thing! I think we need to. We need to go fix a lot of these supply side stuff. Just destroying demand is just well.

Do you artificially destroy demand or does demand mediate itself, but there's a whole other side of the equation that we're not even like pushing for well. This is the thing: if you raise interest rates, you create liquidity shortages and you essentially raise the cost of capital. You can control how long it persists and you can find unit. If you let inflation, do it you it's like riding the dragon.

It's also not linear. It's like a pandemic. It has a very kind of exponential growth to it, so you cannot control inflation and it's going to wreak havoc through your economy and at some point that's the point of no return and with interest rates you can actually regulate on and off hotter colder. So, that's why i think he's right in that i mean do you i mean if this all this is all very, very dependent on.

If you assume we have a wage price spiral, i mean tom, do you do you think we have a wage price spiral? Well, not that i feel bad for truck drivers, but i mean if we, if we have to pay truck drivers 150 000 a year which is kind of where we at right now and good for them. For making the money, i mean we. We definitely have a wage problem. I think in inflation, as it stated in the cpi, numbers is always a lagging behind the reality, the same thing with wage inflation, the same thing with any sort of pricing indexing.

The reality is that we're probably in double-digit inflation and have been for a while. The reality is that wages are raging out of control. Look kevin deliry by the way in his take was talking about it today, like they have to pay 25 bucks for minimum wage jobs or 15 just to get people to come in through the door. I mean that's, not a five or six percent inflation wages.

I mean, let's be real these indices. They don't really reflect how bad things are. I just want to end this with a chart here, just to remind everybody cpi, for all urban consumers uh. The question is uh.

It's year over year compares so the question is, we did see a moderation, uh deceleration in the cpi numbers from april from march, and so the question is: do we just keep inflecting up and is that just a little blip on the data, or does this hint At us sort of decelerating on cpi, i think that's a big question and i don't know if anybody has the answer yeah. Nobody knows nobody knows what's going to happen, but apparently palantir ceo, alex harp thinks that he may know something that the rest of the world doesn't, which is that the risk of a nuclear war or a major geopolitical conflict is higher than it's ever been. Pouncer. Ceo alex carr recently just did an interview with uh andrew ross, andrew rossorkin on cnbc, and essentially said that the world is not taking seriously the threat of political conflicts that are happening even in the face of the russia ukrainian crisis.

So my question is simple to you: both sh is alex carp, saying this because he's obviously a defense contractor and they make a lot more money. If the world is a lot more afraid, or is this geopolitical crisis, something that companies have to take more seriously, countries have to take more seriously and, as a result, pancho will benefit off of because they are the one company in the software world. That's taking it much more seriously, justin, let's start with you, uh i'm gon na actually exceed my time. We have two pound tier experts here, so i i think i don't know alex carp as well as you guys do.

Okay, i'm gon na happily take it! Thank you so much, i'm gon na give it back to you and adam newman, since i don't give a about him, but no offense adam. I mean you're, not that interesting, but here's the story that i see here. People were saying this about alex carp a year ago when he was fear-mongering and then all of a sudden we have russia trying to rebuild the ussr invading into a sovereign country and all of a sudden, his crazy talk doesn't seem so crazy. He was saying this: a year ago, they were saying it's crazy.

All of a sudden biden is talking about militarily intervening against china with taiwan, all of a sudden, not so much of a crazy talk, so i mean we talked about this this morning. Alex harp is not lavar ball. He cannot speak things into existence if he would have just said it to promote his business and the reality would not align with it. Then he would have been exposed as talking nonsense.

However, everything he's been preaching about for the last three years is exactly what's going on: the world is becoming more chaotic, more disorganized and the geopolitics are just getting crazier and crazier. Now that aside, i don't like the fact that every time he speaks on mainstream media, he focuses on the defense side of his business, because we all understand - and we all stipulate - including people who criticize volunteer quite heavily - that the defense side of the business - that's 60 Of the defense side is probably one of the best thing in the company: it's never going to go away. You know once you're a defense contractor you're, usually in for a long time, unless you screw up everybody's worried about the other 40, the commercial side. What's going on with the commercial side, with the with the with the development on on uh non-governmental contracts and non-governmental clients, but he rarely actually addresses that part, and he also he likes to go to his strong, like it's like a basketball player.

That has a really good right hand, so he always drives right. I mean my guy. Everybody knows it's time to drive left, let's time to talk about the commercial side, a little bit more, not just focus on this philosophical changes which he actually predicted correctly. But let's hear something about the business, not so much about the defense contractor side.

These things yeah, i mean i would tend to agree on that as well. I think, like i initially when he talked about nuclear war, i personally and i'm a pouncer shareholder. I thought he was fear-mongering a little bit just because i was like well. I obviously see the conflict of interest here, but then you see the stuff that's happening.

North korea just launched three ballistic missiles. Now, obviously, are they going to go into nuclear war? Probably not, but you see, the world is getting a little bit more unstable and it seems a bit more naive. As all of us get older and the common saying is the older. You get the more conservative you get because you realize the world isn't just black and white like there are things that happen and when those things happen, someone is accountable for it and no one thought russia would launch a full-scale invasion in ukraine.

We always knew russia. Wasn't nice, but we didn't think they were going to do this and then they did this, and if you have technologies and platforms that exist in governments that can help mitigate the extent to these problems when they do happen or stop them from happening. Like a palantir um, then it seems like it's a decade-long worth bet to bet on that company to be able to do it. I got ta.

I got ta also say, though um i think of. I think volunteers buy in a way the cheapest cyber security adjacent company available to public shareholders. Right now you look at crowdstrike sentinel, one palo alto, uh fortinet any of these companies they're all trading at insane multiples, i mean we can all. I even agree pound tears.

If, if you think that the world only gets worse, like the government side is gon na, do really well, but i think where you guys are probably coming from uh is the commercial side? Is the path to it being a quarter trillion dollar company someday right right right? So we did a live stream at 2 a.m this morning and we had 800 people show up, which was shocking, and we talked about this topic and we kind of figured out that our conclusion is that, where palliative realistically can be in the next five years is Kind of like a salesforce sales force level of a company, so a strong b2b presence with the government side at about 200 220 billion dollars from now yeah. It would be still a great return, my investment at least justin. Let me ask you a question real quick. You you are from wall street, alex carp, did tai chi yesterday.

He cursed on live tv uh. Is that something that a wall street analyst like thinks is kind of cool or you're? Just like totally turned off by that uh? I think we are in the midst of a casualization of all business culture uh. I remember i was on a conference call with elon musk like a long time ago in 2014, and you know i was just on youtube. I was, i was on mute and it was like a big conference call, but everybody even then, like really fanboyed over him, and then you know he he smoked.

You know bleep on youtube on joe rogan and you know, and people like are fine with it. So it really did i mean as long as he's not getting fired, which he's not right tom. I don't think he's getting fired right, he's he's buddy buddy with teal and they control the company, like people can go pound sand now, if you're parag and you step out of line just a little bit, you can get voted off the island. Real quick or you know, i mean if you have a very distributed, vanguard, blackrock, subscriber or like a shareholder base, and you don't really control the board and you're, not friends with the board.

They'll just vote you off the island, real quick, but i think what he's alluding to is the fact that palantir has a chronically low institutional shareholding percentage and it's about 30 percent. So the i think, what justin what amit is alluding to is that his behavior might be preventing the more conservative side of institutional investing of jumping on board. Even though the multiples are really good and the business is so good either. They think it's an attractive price right now or they're just like.

We don't want to touch this guy with a 10 foot pole, because we don't know what he's going to do with our money. Another guy that uh, you might not want to touch with a 10-foot pole or you might want to embrace with a 70 million dollars, is adam newman. The famous wework ceo wework, ended up crashing apple made a whole show about it called we crashed, which i thought was probably the best show of the entire year, was an amazing show he's back with a new startup, and this new startup is called flow carbon. It is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency, carbon-based, credit startup and what it does is it allows people to share carbon credits on the blockchain.

What is a carbon credit? It's, for example, if you're a car company - and you have to for regulatory reasons, uh to have some carbon emissions saved. You can buy these credits as a result of you, uh spending the sp using that much carbon dioxide and it kind of washes itself out in terms of the amount of carbon emissions you're releasing into the planet. He has uh he's invested about 32 million dollars, or he's raised about 32 million he's not the ceo but he's putting a lot of money into it. The token by which the startup operates is called the goddess nature token.

That is not a joke. The goddess nature token, i think his wife might have had some input in coming up with the name man. What people will be trading to exchange carbon credits uh on the blockchain, so justin um? Is this gon na work and should we be excited by the goddess nature token, honestly, because okay, there's two careful, we don't want to get sued, be careful when you, when you explain it's a really good sign when a16z andreyson horowitz invests, it's a really bad sign. When adam newman is involved - and it's a really bad sign when they name a token ad or what is it goddess, green, green goddess, salad dressing token, and so i i mean i would pass it not only that it's like crypto's in the toilet too.

So, like you're, it's a crypto, i mean now's the time to build sure. I don't think the idea is all that bad, it's blockchain, tokenized carbon credits, um. I think that this this is a market that needs to be made, whether it's on web 2 or web3. I mean there could be a uh, an ebay for carbon credits.

You know justin as a crypto expert. Why is it blockchain based like? Do you see any just from the concept you see intrinsic value to adding tokens? Well, i mean so the difference between web 3 and web 2 is that in web 2, when you buy something on a marketplace: uh you're, trusting the central company with like credits and it's all stored on their own internal like database on web 3. It's all open source, and you know you have the token nobody can take away the token like facebook can't just come in and take away your like your credits. So there needs to be a marketplace for carbon credits, because, right now it's like very one-off, but - and so is this going to be it? Maybe i just i don't know why anybody would work with this guy.

Ever again, the guy is like walking around barefoot like their own parties. I think he just it sounds like a collage of every possible buzzword that makes sense in 2022 blockchain carbon nfd's. This is like 10 years ago. This would have been called like the synergy of deep dive, ballpark car competency, visibility.

Token, the i don't understand what this i might be: a good startup if i was raising capital, i think the cost of having a name like that associated with my business is not worth the money unless it's putting an obscene amount of money at a crazy low Valuation, or do you think the name is so controversial that it gets the people going, it actually does marketing. You know without bro he's the anthony bennett of the investment world bro. He had the worst flame out, he's the urban meyer flame out level of stock market bro the what happened with wework, how high they got versus how it all deflated 47 billion to 4 billion. I would be if it was me.

I would be ashamed to show my face again. I would just retire and like take my money, just like it's just, he was just he's an ego guy right like that's. The whole thing is he's yeah. He was like the next guru.

I don't know anyway all right. I think i'm gon na i'm gon na make a i'm gon na say it's a very interesting opportunity and by interesting opportunity i mean god knows: jesus christ. Bro. Are you sure it's called? I would rather, whatever the that is bro.

I'm sorry, the one thing is we're also in an anti-esg uh movement right now, because the scam well, i mean, i think, like there was all this like bla blatant investment into esg and like what is esg. What does social justice have anything to do with like saving the planet? Has anything to do with governmental support or whatever yeah esg doesn't make any governance support whatever, and so, like they're going against like right now we need more natural gas. We need more oil. I think that's where the money will flow.

Adam newman may have an ego but uh three guys who do not have. Oh sorry, i mean two guys who did not have an ego. Are me and justin the other guy. That's here on tom's channel? No! No! I think his hair started to grow inwards because, like he's saying some stupid, thank you guys for watching we'll see you on thursday to end out our week for another edition of money.

Talks we'll see you tomorrow, yeah. If anybody invests in adam newman, uh startup. Please comment below what the do they do. We could not figure it out in like 15 minutes trying to and anyone can they can buy the token.

So you know what the funniest comment about adam newman's new company and what he does, but wrong answers only is going to win. Another 25. boom, we'll see you tomorrow, yes, except the mid because he's fired.