Hey everyone welcome back, so wow we uh just saw uh well. Actually i did uh on uh cnbc there was just uh is someone who was interviewed uh and uh. He had this uh. This argument that uh really there there hasn't been uh in recent history.

Uh a recession that has really been caused by anything other than uh fed or regulatory error uh, and i thought it was a really interesting argument, uh that that i haven't really heard of recently uh but uh, the more you kind of put your head to it. The more it's kind of like, ah yeah, you know it oftentimes is either government that screws up or the fed that screws up uh that that ends up leading to uh crashes. You know we had uh massive inflation from price controls. In the 60s we had a 2008 recession, led by a disastrous lack of regulation and uh the the allowance of of insanity in the real estate market, uh and uh, absolutely unsupervised, lending and uh.

You know it begs the question: is it possible that uh the government could overreact or the fed could overreact uh to to what we've got going now, uh the the inflation that we're seeing now so who knows uh, but it was very interesting uh that uh really This argument that it's it's government that could screw up uh or the fed in uh in how we end up reacting to uh what happens here and perhaps it's best to let the market play it out. I don't know what do you think? Do we let the market play out inflation or or is it time for the fed to step it up and squash that inflation bug so uh? Let's take a look and see what's going on going on it today, we've got uh in the markets. Let's see here, we have dow futures up 0.16 s, p up 0.01, so basically flat nasdaq, also pretty much flat at .05 to the downside, i do have some really good numbers coming out of home depot and walmart, both of them uh killing it in terms of Earnings, but not only that raising their guidance for sales, and this is pretty bullish, especially for online sales suggestions, that walmart is raising their guidance for for online sales, despite inflation that we're seeing and the stock is down 0.89 here, despite uh some solid insights but uh. This this raised uh guidance on sales, really really incredible: i'm gon na grab it specifically here.

Let's see what we get off of walmart uh, let's see here individual company news and i think it's bullish as well for like etsy and some of these other companies. Okay, let's see here, uh walmart raises full year sales profit forecasts as holidays; okay, so it was there. It was a guide, raise uh, let's see here, walmart uh. Okay, let's see here, oh yeah.

Okay, here we go here are their earnings? Oh sweet, okay, oh man! There's so much hold on there's, so many updates out of walmart uh. It's gon na. Take me a second to actually pull it up. Uh, but uh.

That's pretty good! It did look like it moved up at one point as much as two and a half percent in the free market. It's gon na. Take me a second though, to actually get all the details on the news, so we'll come right back to uh to walmart. Here there we go: okay, we'll come back to walmart, so uh, oh no, there.

It is! Finally all right! Here we go so okay yeah! Here we go uh all right, so they raised their forecast to six point four dollars for the fiscal year. That's up from 620 to 635, so that's uh outside that uh. Definitely outside uh. The previous guide here, walmart com sales, around five percent - let's see here, walmart eps beats by six cents, beats on revenue and raises full year guidance.

Let's see here, jumps on earnings by comp sale beat adjusted, eps came at 145. Expectation was 140., it's also impressive, with a company like walmart, because usually the estimates aren't too far off on walmart wall marking. It was up. It was up almost 2.8 in pre-market comp sales sword.

Okay, good regina kovitt costs remain elevated globally, but lower than last year and walmart price prices rose and consumers shopped early for the holidays. Uh-Huh peloton by the way, also raising a billion dollars. Uh their stock initially dropped like eight or nine percent here in the pre-market, but they uh they ended up rotating back up after they mentioned that they already have a buyer. That was right here, freaked out the market, and when the market realized, it wasn't going to be sort of uh here, let's, let's just go to the stock market and raise money uh the stock actually recovered because keep in mind when a company raises money, they're they're Sure they they might be selling shares, but they're getting cash in response to that, which is a good thing, but oftentimes the market reacts negatively to that.

We get these sort of drops here and that's because there are now more shares available and anytime. You increase supply and you keep demand. Constant price goes down very simple, yeah, so uh, but that peloton move here has pretty much recovered. It's actually up one point: four, seven percent cheering the fact that the company's gon na be able to raise uh a lot of money here, uh, so uh momentum, slowing a little bit here on matterport.

Look at that. That report, at least in the pre-market, looks like it's down about five percent, not a surprise, coming off uh the the crazy run. I think it was what 20 percent yesterday that matterport yeah look at that 22 yesterday, that's pretty incredible! Then uh, let's see here, then we've got uh. Yeah beachbody was a disaster.

We covered them yesterday and uh big revenue. Miss bottom line. Miss uh, not not very good kind of following in uh peloton's footsteps. Unfortunately, blink charging down 6.4 wow arcimoto down five.

I wonder if there's some news on some of these in terms of why but uh some of them have been running with the exception of arkamoto, though that hasn't been running. Sadly uh. What is running, though, are some of the other uh evs. Take a look at this lucid up: 10.5 percent uh, i'm not sure if it's because of the motor trend award, uh or or potentially a combination of the fact that the ceo is going on cnbc later.

Sometimes it is because uh you get uh you get. This excitement over uh over somebody hopping on to cnbc uh. You've got uh rivian up again up about uh, 10 percent here and ggpi up about 4.3 percent. It's an incredible like euphoric rally here: uh really on uh on the evs, both rivien and lucid, which is great in terms of actually helping tesla, not uh, not fall to the earth.

Here on. All these sales elon musk selling off another, almost billion dollars, was like 970 million or something like that. Still a lot of work to do, which is kind of annoying. It's like get it done already.

Pull the bandage off uh then then create some real buying opportunities for folks, but then, but then have it over with just get it over with uh, oh well, so um all right, let's see here, looks like uh walmart. Ceo is gon na be hopping on cnbc to chat the chat about their boosted outlook. Talk about inflation would be interesting as so much talk about inflation. That's all they can talk about, especially i mean look even bloomberg.

Here's what they're talking about ramping up the pressure on the fed? Let's see here, flexibility and how he approaches uh the growth uh concerns over next year, and if, if we do see the down back towards trend and, of course, uh the big inflation question clinton warren, does it make a difference who the next fed chair is yeah? I think i think it does um uh if they're going to change the path that we currently on, if they're going to become more hawkish than the market has expect expectations uh. But we also got to remember this is a dual mandate right. It's inflation and labor. All right we're gon na pull off this.

Let's uh, let's hop back on over to here and let's see what we got here, so us retail sales jump by the most since march. You know what was interesting was we had china uh that this weekend had big expectations, that their retail sales numbers were going to come in with a big, miss uh, and we were going to witness a big slowing of china and china's retail sales numbers came in With a big, beat totally beat expectations and now we're up in the u.s as well. Purchases rose 1.7 in october, without adjustment for prices, receipts rose in nearly all categories, including electronics, u.s retail sales rose in october for a third month. Signaling households continue to spend even with the fastest inflation in decades, the value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7.

Last month, the most in seven months, excluding gas and motor vehicle sales sales were up. 1.4 percent uh looks like the uh economists. Median estimates were about. One point four percent - and this right here gives you kind of a little chart here of uh retail sales jumping which was interesting.

Is you really see the effect of the stimulus right here, so we passed the uh 600 stimulus right here, uh in december, which really because it was past like december 26th, or i really ended up passed uh or in people's wallets for spending in january, and then Biden passed the uh fourteen hundred dollars in uh in february, which ended up in people's wallets in march. So you got these huge moves here and people just blowing the money which, i suppose that's the point of stimulus money is that people are going to actually spend it, but it kind of blows my mind sometimes how quickly people blow it all uh, but anyway yeah Uh this this is good, because this is uh unstimulated. Well, i mean, as long as you don't consider the fed's bond buying, which doesn't directly go to uh to individuals. Of course, it's more of a top-down approach anyway, uh right.

Let's see here robust demand from households, walmart home depot, yeah people attend people, and this is one of the downsides people get into owning real estate and then they they see home prices going up and when home prices go up, they justify spending money like cruelty on Uh on homes and real estate, it's a big mistake. I don't over improve real estate. It's it's very bad! I'm not not a big fan of that at all, but uh. I consistently i'll say that and i consistently see people over improve their homes like hey.

I sold you your home uh, don't over, improve it drive by like a year later, i'm like oh, my gosh. I can't believe you spent money on that that that that that and that's just the outside, like i don't even want to know what y'all did on the inside. If you did that on the outside, that's crazy 930 mil uh was uh how much uh how much uh musk ended up selling that's right. There is also a lawsuit by jp morgan yeah.

Let's see here where's that e jp morgan lawsuit again. No all right so hold on here, so elon uh that adds okay. So that brings them to oh. What is that eight seven point: eight billion that he's already sold so he's got ta get to seventeen, so he's still he's still got ta quit um well shares hold on live.

Would you wonder? Okay should have disposed. Ten percent of his stake. He's still got a bit to go all right, let's see and where's the 10. When i see the jp morgan lawsuit here, all right musk would need to sell some 17 million shares more than double the 7.3 he's already offloaded in recent days.

Yeah yeah exactly yeah. They didn't include the jp morgan talk where's, the jp morgan, lawsuit jp morgan set a suing tesla jpm tesla, let's find it there. We go. Look at this folks.

Jp morgan sues tesla over 169 million dollars over warrants. Remember that warrants are essentially options uh, but rather than with third parties, aka derivatives uh they they are with the company they're, actually contracts with the company itself, so jp morgan, sued tesla on monday for 162.2 million, accusing elon musk of flagrantly breaching a contract related to Stock warrants, after its share price soared. So obviously, if the share price soared and it's true that jp morgan had warrants or options, then they should be entitled to shares unless of course, jp morgan, let those expire, uh or or the uh, the contra. You know, for whatever reason, the price was below the strike, but anyway, according to the complaint filed in federal court, tesla in 2014 sold warrants to jp morgan that would pay off if their strike price were uh below tesla's share price upon the warrants expiration exactly.

This is just the reverse way of saying it. If the stock were higher than where the strike price was then jp, morgan would benefit jpmorgan, which said it had the authority to adjust the strike price. Now this is a little confusing said. It substantially reduced the strike price after musk's august 7, 2018 tweet that he might take tesla private at 420 per share and had funding, secured and reversed some of reduction when musk abandoned the idea.

17 days later, but tesla's share price rose approximately 10-fold by the time. The warrants expired and jp morgan said this required tesla under its contract to deliver. The shares seems to make sense, though j.p morgan's adjustments were appropriate and contractually required. Tesla's flagrant ignored its clear contractual obligations to pay jpmorgan full it'd be worth going through the complaint to see what it looks like.

Maybe bloomberg did here so tesla sold the warrants to reduce the potential stock dilution from a separate convertible bond sale. Jpmorgan said it had been contractually entitled and uh. Let's see here, automaker complained that the bank's adjustment were opportunistic and trying to take advantage of tesla's volatility, but didn't challenge the underlying calcs. It's interesting here.

I i don't really see a real counteroffer by or a counter argument by tesla, so i'm sure we'll see a response to the lawsuit probably have to wait for that response and their answer to jp morgan's complaint to see what kind of argument tesla's going to end Up, having might be worth looking at the lawsuit, though, but uh that's interesting anyway, more see, tesla goes into these cycles. These, like fudd cycles, it's very interesting, uh, all right so tesla by the way, in reaction to the fact that elon still has to sell roughly twice uh, and this jp morgan lawsuit is that tesla is down about 0.92 percent in the pre-market. This comes at the same time as other ev makers are rallying specifically rivien and lucid, both up 10 lucid, knocking on the door of 50 per share with orivian at 165 per share peloton by the way, also up two and a quarter percent. After announcing that it's going to raise a billion dollars and that it has the uh buyer demand essentially secured x, paying moving up a little bit uh neos when is neo ever going to move so x-ping moves, but not uh, but not neo.

The oh industrial production numbers just came out. Let's take a look at this, so uh industrial production came in at one point: six percent versus point, eight percent estimated - and it's here we go. Let's listen in here for a moment over the last couple of years, but uh, you know what are you seeing right now on the labor front, in terms of your ability to attract and retain talent and or whether you know you're coming up short uh in part, As so, many other businesses seem to struggle to find labor david, it's much better here in the u.s we saw a pretty significant change, as the government stimulus started to go away and we are in full employment at sam's club, u.s walmart us a few weeks ago. Really saw a step change in hiring and we're not as concerned about that, as we would have been say two months ago, we're in good shape for the holiday.

I like the b-roll of sanitizing, the carts and in our supply chain, as well as in our stores. Hey doug, the white house had some comments the other day about large retailers and the shelves being adequately stocked for the holiday uh. Did you give the white house any color? Can you share some of that and also some of these? I guess people are calling them novel practices of securing your own freighter to get uh containers to the u.s. Is that something you're actively involved in it is and we're grateful for the the help we've been getting from the administration and others to solve these.

I'm gon na pull off here. So all right, uh, let's see here um so yeah industrial production numbers uh. They, let's see here 1.6. The previous was a decline of 1.3 percent.

This came in at 1.6. That's over the estimate of 0.9 capacity capacity utilization was 76.4. Also beating the estimate and the previous read of 75.2 and manufacturing sic production, one point: two percent versus point: eight percent, so beets, it's kind of what we've been seeing just in this market, is that the economy is surprisingly strong. Now - and i think there are you hear a lot about people kind of pooping on this economy, and it's mostly the biggest argument is uh is: is the pricing changes uh the inflationary pricing changes, but beyond that the underlying economy appears to be strong, uh? Who knows but uh certainly uh certainly has left me bullish to where i'm i'm all in, but uh we'll see this riot blockchain down 10.74 percent - let's see what's going on with riot oh riot, so let's see here well, you have to yeah wallet address.

I mean you'd have to just tell me what coin you want to use if you want to buy something in crypto, it's kind of inconvenient to try to handle a transaction for one person here on a live stream, so yeah just send an email right. Blockchain drops after missing q3 revenue earnings estimates, so we have riot blockchain. Let's see here, okay right, blockchain q3 revenue was 64.8 million and net loss was 15.3 million. Eps was a loss of 16 cents and that's down four cents from a year ago.

Doesn't i guess, help that at the same time as the riot earnings came out, crypto's kind of been selling off a little bit? You know, i know for a lot of people. This is like. Oh, it's not a crash. It's just it's just a day in the life as a crypto investor, stop crypto drops seven percent ev.

Nobody cares in crypto. Dow drops seven percent. Everybody loses your mind like those are the kind of annoying comments i see sometimes, but it look. It's still substantial.

I mean seven percent across the board here: uh seven percent on bitcoin eight percent on ethereum. This is the largest drop that i want to say. We've had since september in bitcoin uh solana's down six point. Eight seven percent you've got cardano down six point: seven percent uh dogecoin down seven percent sheaves down five and a half uh a lot.

A lot of these uh a lot of the crypto's down now owl goes down 10.5 axes down 7.3. What else here mana mana is actually 322 nice, but uh still down? Oh, what's up 26 percent on the week, joe that's pretty nice uh, it's actually only down about a percent. The this is the whole. Like metaverse excitement seems to come in these like waves.

It's like all of a sudden, oh we're excited about the metaverse again and then all of a sudden we're not uh all right. Let's see here, let's go on in here, so we've got hmm pre-market. So, let's see here, uh playboy had a nice beat. We've got uh, lucid, rivian same thing here, these guys holding on peloton's moving up uh.

They i mean they were up one percent when we started the stream now they're, four percent uh they've been rotating straight up here, so good job peloton on raising money and actually having your stock go up. That's great lowe's, x, bang, jd yeah. I have to say i am surprised that dwack dwack is still holding on to about a 60 price uh. That's that's incredible! That's just absolutely incredible! Wow all right! So anyway, is it a good idea to sell out and pay credit card debt? My goodness uh.

I think, if you're well up on your positions and you're in credit card debt, not financial advice get out of credit card debt because then you can actually also get into real estate, which i i feel like. I belabor that point, but please get into real estate. You know it is a little crazy, though the market right now, especially when uh you have people who just bought homes last year that are like hey. You know i bought a place last year and i'm up so much that now i want to refinance and go buy another property and so as a rental property and then of course, people who don't own real estate, hear that and they're like wrong.

We need less investors buying real estate, um yeah. Well, unfortunately, that's uh the whole free market game, all right all right. So what else? Let's see here all right? Let's see so other headlines, that's what we want. We want other news, other news, all right: let's go to wall street wall street journal.

What we got over here, shoppers boosted spending last month, yep the u.s - is going to back mortgages of nearly a million dollars for the first time. Oh, let's take a look at that uh, a shack in my city costs 450 000 you're telling me that a shack is going to a million. Well, i didn't say that your shack is going to a million, but i don't. I also don't know what city you're in but uh you know i i i think uh.

I think it's very easy to downplay uh real estate, let's be like, oh, why would i pay all that money for presumably like a two bedroom, one bath or whatever? It's like well, you know, there's desirability to owning real estate. The federal government is about to back mortgages of nearly a million dollars for the first time. The maximum home size home loan mortgage uh to be eligible by fannie freddie is expected to jump sharply in 2022. A reflection of the rapid appreciation home prices wow, the increase may make it easier and cheaper for some borrowers to buy a home yeah.

Then you get out of the jumbo levels. Currently government controlled mortgages back single-family mortgages as high as 548 000. In most parts of the country and up to 822 in expensive housing markets, including california, new york, those limits are expected to jump to a baseline of 650 and uh about well. It says just under a million in high cost markets, wow well they're, expected to be announced november 30th and those are going to be for conforming loans, because anytime you exceed that you're in jumbo territory, wow yeah.

That makes sense uh. You want to see high real estate prices, look at toronto and vancouver yeah. I hear somebody else talking about seattle, yeah uh-huh. These are high demand places people people want to live uh, i don't blame it at all yeah.

This is incredible all right. What else? So? Okay, let's go back to the main page here: let's go. What do we got four minutes to go four minutes to go biden and z, cool down, hospitalities and virtual meeting virtual meeting? I thought they were gon na meet in person, virtual meeting man. I hate zoom meetings.

I like meeting people in real life, bitcoin briefly drops below 60k wow below 60.. Did we, let's see, i want to see that bitcoin. Oh, look at that yeah. It did look at it play the lines.

Look at it. It's totally been playing the 63 6 level broke below that went straight to the 60 000 mark, which is obviously a pretty heavy uh psychological threshold. Uh almost fell to my 58, a thousand level 58 six here uh did end up rebounding. This was at 2 20.

In the morning, man who's who's up at that time. Ah, it's crazy. Oh gosh, everybody's talking about real estate prices here, uh yeah, tattoo chef reports. After the bell, why would you buy real estate out of state? It's just a terrible disaster, an idea? If you don't, you don't know out of the area, at least by where you are, unless you don't believe in the area where you are it's just it's not a good idea, um, it's very, very bad anyway, uh all right.

So what else we're not anything else? Uber's actually up three point: seven percent good for them fiscally auto darden. I i think you might see some recovery stocks up today, because there was news about pfizer, allowing their pill to be manufactured by others, which is seen as obviously bullish for for ending the pandemic. Sooner this is the uh one that people like to call pfizermactin it's it's not uh, but it's also a protease, inhibitor and uh would would be a tool to essentially give people who are sick with covet uphill or or a treatment. I think it's like a five-day treatment with the pill to help prevent death and hospitalization, which is good i'm all for that.

I think it's great. You might end up seeing that things like that end up delaying people uh getting vaccinated, but uh hey. You know what at least there's a tool all right. Let's see here, uh-huh somebody michael here says that lucid motors is insanely priced with a handful of deliveries.

Yeah, you know uh, who was it uh, one of the guys on cnbc this morning? I only briefly tuned in about 15 20 minutes, but anyway he was saying. Why is it that lucid has delivered like 100 cars? Yet it's up more, basically at a higher value than starbucks, it's sort of an interesting comparison. Uh yeah, it's called ev euphoria. You know.

I personally don't think that ev euphoria is really worth it uh unless they also have uh some incredible self-driving technology with it. You know. Otherwise, evs are just cars with batteries. Who cares like that's, not proprietary uh, so i i don't know i'm in new york city.

Every house is like a matchbox: oh because it's small uh, well new york, city's beautiful. I love it infrastructure package for evs sure people like credits, all right. Let's get the bell here. We go more than offset by the agony of fossil.

The he's consistent jim is tucson ge, carl, giving me a green candle. Stick right off the bat lucid red candlestick at the open, as well as rivien, with a red candle. Stick at the open, pelton dropping a little bit here at the open as well shaving off some of that euphoria does look like: we've got uh home depot whoops there you go uh moving up about three percent here. Let's see how uh tesla's reacting here at the open, tesla wow green candlestick at the open, maybe elon's - buying.

Ah no, it's uh first minute, it's always going to be a big set of volume here, probably uh. Some real buy the dip happening here. Elon's, probably probably sitting there like huh if it goes to if it goes to 10 15 i'll sell or 10 10 20 69 cell uh, and then i wonder if he watches the sticks. Just come straight down.

Big red candle stick ooh the power to move something like tesla, it's kind of incredible: oh yeah, yeah, all right! So uh, let's see here crypto bitcoin sitting at 60, 700. at the open. Here we've got beachbody still down 26 percent. It goes to show you that uh, oh where'd, it go, let's just hold hold on a second goes to show you there's really no there's 26 percent there's really no downward limit on uh stocks.

See people like to think. Oh, it's a spec. It should stay around. Ten dollars, no no does not have to there's nothing that uh that binds its value to that ten dollars other than then hope, uh, pretty incredible.

I i still can't get over. The fact that uh d-wag is is stuck at six air 59 dollars. You've got a lot of hodlers that went into that one. I was expecting a whole lot more traders, which, in fairness i mean it did run to like 160 bucks or whatever and came down from that.

That was insane but uh. The fact that it's maintaining it at 59 - it's that's 6x, it's par value, that's incredible, very, very overpriced, but incredible all right! Then we got marathon, 6.75 metamaterials and matt nine percent to the downside. Here, new egg down ten percent new egg ran a bit yesterday. It seemed like there was a little bit of a momentum run there matapor sitting at about 5.6, a to the downside, a little dip there after a 22 run so far, dropping about three and a third.

When are we gon na get a discount on uh? A firm and uh and etsy and end phase again i'd like to look for a discount over there, pal tier down 1.5. Let's go ahead and take a peek, let's drop in a firm here. Let's see what we got affirm there we go. Okay, it's rotating down! You ask you shall receive affirms down about three percent good if we can get into the 30s or potentially even below the 130s.

That would start looking nice uh. Let's go look at robin hood by the way 34. It's almost at 34.04 burn kathy wood's been buying that one at the dip you've got uh end face down about 1.5 sitting at 240 and how's etsy. After that retail boost it's about one percent, uh tesla are taking a tesla up about point four percent as well.

Look at that just just wait: elon might not be up yet i'm sure he is, but anyway uh and look wayfair is actually trying to head back to 300. shocking paypal up again, a half percent see all those uh. Let's see how the volatility is looking like uh on paypal, i'd love to have to grab some options on it, but it's been so expensive. All right, let's see here so volatility on paypal.

Let's look at a firm and some of these others as well. Yep no volatility and paypal is still ridiculous: very high, a firm, it's kind of average yeah slightly elevated. What about etsy? Oh look at that tesla's, almost up a percent etsy wow. Unless he's quite elevated, i don't think etsy was like the entire market's gone up with volatility.

End phase isn't that high, though? How is the spy doing? Let's look at that s? P. 500 volatility: it's actually kind of low and uh how about a firm? Oh yeah? Okay, farms is roughly average okay and yeah. Paypal is still sitting high neo's coming back up about a percent and neos historic volatility for options purposes. Also, elevated a lot of a lot of a lot of stocks, elevated uh, elevated um volatility, some potential room to maybe sell some puts.

Do we get enphase flying face quickly here? I'm gon na look at some option: pricing here and phase definitely down from some of the substantial levels that it's run to, but uh still up on 100 day average, not bad though so. Let's look at etsy here see if there's some puts to sell over here. Oh my gosh etsy is how is it at it's at 276., this thing's going to run to 300.? It's incredible! Why yeah yeah anyway? Okay! So let's go ahead and look here. So if we sell some puts for 31 days, oh my gosh december 17th, 31 days away, which keep in mind black friday, is only 11 days away.

And there is a black friday coupon code linked down below get uh between 200 to 2 000 off, depending on which bundle you get link down below check out the programs on building your wealth price goes up. 11 59 p.m, black friday, so uh we have. Let's see here etsy, if i do some sell, puts on etsy, we we're pretty high levels here, but for december of 30 day, i'm at 16 15 divided by 280 right now, 5.7 percent. And if i go for this week, wow, if i go for this week, i get sitting about 2.5 percent.

Well, that's not so great, but uh, still seven and a half percent for 30 days worst case you got to buy some etsy. It's always the thing. Remember that if you growing, if you're going to sell, puts sell, puts on companies that you're willing to buy the shares in that way. For some reason, the market moves like let's, let's just happen to say you sell some puts the day before uh elon musk decides to dump his shares uh.

You know you're not upset when you have to buy the shares. Just just saying, just as an example, you know um like oh, i wonder i do wonder what options are looking like on body like. Let's look at that here. So first of all, historic volatility has got to be through the roof right now uh.

I don't think it's updated yet because otherwise it's not there's no way. That's today's volatility. No! It's not! Okay, yeah, it's down in the toilet, otherwise, so probably take another 10 minutes before we actually get today's volatility, it's a little bit of a delay. Well, these open up, but anywho um.

We could still look at what the option chain is pricing in. So if you buy a call for two dollars and fifty cents on beachbody expecting a rebound for 31 days from now. What are you paying? Looks like you're paying a buck 25, which is 3.75, the stock's at 3.67 cents, you're, basically paying 7 cents for this option. This is a dirt cheap option, but but but but the market seems to be pricing in that beachbody could continue to sell off, in which case you'd get screwed how's hippo by the way, speaking of getting screwed 380.

uh end phase 230.. Oh no, i'm sorry! Uh 241., it was going to say 2 30.. I think i was looking at boeing there accidentally anyway, uh huh. Can we short riven yet have they come out with that? Yet is that possible? Not not that i think that's a good idea.

Oh, they do have an options chain: ooh ooh, that's interesting, 31 day. How much does a 31 day put going to cost me 30 dollars? Oh, what a rip-off hold on how's this being priced 165. 30. 50.

Let's go here! Let's see 10 bucks away, roughly 10 bucks away 32 puts a little more expensive and we're closer to these puts, let's see what about the other way around 22. If i go here 12 away, this way, 24. Hmm look at it. It's running like crazy, though just in the last couple minutes here, it's gone up like three percent gee whiz and playboy's up 20 wow, that's incredible! That's a very nice movement, but yeah anyway puts on the darn thing kind of expensive 30-day put gosh uh.

If you bought a put 31 bucks, i don't i i wouldn't sell a put if anything. I'd probably, but i see i don't like shorting, because you just never know that you i mean look at dwack right. I mean i shorted it and i made money on it. It was great, but still that thing is is holding on it's holding on for dear life, 60 bucks ugh, how's it video video's sitting at 300, bucks wow dang it.

When are we ever gon na get a? Can we got ta get a sell-off again. We need to get the market freaking out again. I wish there's some buying opportunities, but uh all the evs seem to be uh like super happy, but then again ev super cycle. You know i i say it and - and i just i - encourage you to remember that uh when we get into another ev down cycle uh, you know that it's cyclical that uh it it comes and goes in cycles anyway.

Okay, so what else norwegian cruise lines? Why are they all of a sudden down 6.5 percent nclh? Let's see here norwegian cruise lines, let's see here individual company news, okay, norwegian cruise lines, i mean that was yesterday's news, the stock offering unless it was after the bell that might that might be. Why um? Oh well, uh matterport, now under five percent i have an adjustment down - oh yeah, except for uh, except for neo, of course, yeah that one's just been stuck in the mud so far down about four percent. Let's see if there's anything up going on with sofi, when does sophie selling off become an opportunity? Oh, so, if i had an offering sulfite launches 50 million dollar secondary, offering 50 million dollars wait, 15 million 50 million shares or dollars, 50 million dollars seems low, hold on so far yeah. Okay, 50 million shares uh.

That's like a billion dollars for reference uh at 20, bucks right yeah that that makes a lot more sense, like 50 million dollars. Why? Why are you on the stock market to raise that you know you raise a whole lot more money in the stock market. Just the point: access to capital, it's the whole point of the stock market, we're talking about tim cook over here in crypto this month. So that's nice, oh wrong channel and this one they all seem to have positive momentum and that momentum can stay there with even a dearth of headlines.

But it does help and when you see those headlines hit and yet you still see a positive reaction in that people aren't really selling the news per se. That tends to also be a positive. So we have seen new all-time highs by both bitcoin and ether and there's really nothing bearish about new highs, as you can imagine from a technical perspective. So taking a look at this chart, which does take a look at that record uh market capitalization when it comes to crypto three trillion dollars we're talking about when it comes to uh that and bitcoin and ethereum again pushing new records.

What we tend to see at these levels, though, is that ah interesting okay, so i just read into this a little more sofi uh is is not actually raising money with it. It looks like other shareholders are, are selling, so it's like softbank silver lake partners, uh. Some of these other companies they're selling their shares, so uh they're selling their 50 million shares the company is not uh, is not raising money off of this well, but that still takes people who are hodlers and makes them sellers right. So it does.

It does increase your your market uh potential liquidity, which is probably why so far is selling a little bit four percent. All right, let's see here so, let's see, let's see, let's see, let's see what else is moving moving to the upside. Let's see okay, proterra twilio dd etsy hold on is wow. We'll look at that right here, uh nike, one point: four: three percent, probably on that retail sales data tesla's holding on to one percent, looks like it's about to drop below that doc.

You sign one percent square .87, pinterest uh fractionally up here, three quarters of a percent amd amazon salesforce. These guys moving slightly little small moves over here. Little tiny moves sometimes worth scrolling down. They look at wow canoe up 9.7, why? You know when we looked at their earnings yesterday and we saw no earnings just more cash burn.

There has to have been some kind of announcement for it to be up canoes price target raised to nine dollars at roth capital. Canoe moves up, production launch to 2022 and ev carmaker is relocating to northwest arkansas, really canoe moves to walmart's, hometown wow. Why uh pix panasonic is a battery supplier huh? I wonder where their headquarters is now uh-huh yeah, it's interesting, hmm and then moves up production launch to 2022. see this.

So canoe is moving up. The planned u.s production launch to 22 instead of 2023. That's probably the big news there from california, oh they're, moving out of california. Ah, okay! Well, that's not a surprise! That's not a surprise at all.

Yeah, okay, moving manufacturing out of california no shocker canoe is also forging closer ties with oklahoma. Let's see here, okay, it's a little bit about the location. Startup currently has branches in california and texas. The plan is to build a thousand units in 2022 and 15, 000 and 2023, so tiny, so tiny.

It's gon na be fascinating to see how these actual these eevee makers actually end up getting to scale if they do or they go bankrupt, and that's what makes me nervous about some of the euphoria in the stock prices of the other ones. But hey people make money, that's great! I'm happy for people! So, let's see here, beachbody desktop metal. Blank oh blinks had to have news to be moving down like this. Oh kashkari is on.

We should listen to him as well. We'll come back to blank hold on uh former fed officials, even some current fed officials being concerned not about overreacting but about of under reacting to this surge in inflation and the the fact that maybe it won't be as temporary as you thought. How do you respond to that? Well, we're all paying very close attention to the data and the higher prices that we're seeing in the economy are real. These are real pain points for families that have to pay them, and so no one is making light of that at all.

My main point is we shouldn't overreact to what is likely going to be a temporary factor? Let's just take the supply and demand one at a time if it's a supply side and it's supply chains that have been disrupted because of the pandemic. You know, barring some introduction of some new wave or some new strain of the virus. Those supply chains should work themselves out some taking longer than others on the demand side, which many people have argued. This is really about a demand shock, a lot of fiscal stimulus.

We know the path of the fiscal stimulus, fiscal stimulus provides a one-time boost and then it tapers off and it itself becomes a drag on the economy. So, unless congress passes a massive new spending package, that's not paid for there's nothing that i'm seeing in these fundamental factors. That leads me to think that this is a long-term change in inflation or inflation expectations. I we are seeing pressures that are real, but most of the evidence, in my mind, seems to be that they're going to be temporary, even though they are real and people are having to pay it.

But the challenge is, if we overreact by saying: let's just change the path of monetary policy, to try to deal with a one-time effect that could lead to a worse long-term outcome for the economy. Well, you all believe them, uh shortages constraints, blockages, whatever you want to call them, they don't seem to be going away. If anything they seem to have broadened. They seem to be lasting longer.

What you see in the data, because many fed officials, including the white house uh administration officials, are saying no it's. This is inflation surges a lot about the supply chain, but the problem? What makes you say in terms of data not just a forecast, but it is getting better and it's going to get better well. Looking at uh just give some examples. It really is very sector specific.

So, a year ago you couldn't get toilet paper when you went to the grocery store. Now, when i go to the grocery store, the shelves are full of toilet paper. Lumber prices, skyrocketed lumber prices have now fallen back down to earth. I just read a report before i walked in here that malaysian chip factories are now coming back online to try to supply auto companies.

I also recently learned that all the major auto plants in america have restarted. I'm not suggesting that we're out of the out of the woods yet so at all, but many of these sectors are working themselves out. Some are going to take longer than others how about demand? Uh larry summers: a former treasury secretary, well-known uh economist, has been concerned for some time that the fed is not going to move fast enough uh and it's going to let inflation get so high that that fed has to move way too fast to pull it back. In he's talking about things like you know, you've got demand, driven inflation prices rising because of a strong economy.

Some people going back to work, and it's not just things like commodity prices, uh, firmer housing prices in a hot market, and things like that, although they're contributing to it too um. What is the risk that this doesn't go away, that it does become entrenched well? This goes back to him and i i read larry summers put out a piece earlier today. It goes back to what's the economic theory that a one-time boost of fiscal spending, a one-time boost of demand. It leads to higher prices.

Yes, does it lead to higher inflation, which means ongoing year after year after year, continue price increases? I don't really understand the mechanism by which larry summers thinks that this one-term one-time fiscal stimulus leads to a change in the path of inflation. Unless he's saying well, inflation expectations are going to become unanchored. You know the federal reserve is never going to allow that to happen. All of my colleagues and i are paying very close attention to the data, and if we thought that long-term inflation expectations were becoming unanchored, we would certainly adjust to make sure that that did not happen.

If you look at long-term inflation expectations in market indicators, they are not looking like they are coming, unanchored or very high at all. We're seeing a boost of inflation expectations over the next one, two three years, maybe even out to four or five years, but that's really driven about the next couple years, so we're paying very close attention to the data. I just again say if it's if it, even if you believe it is purely demand, driven a one-time boost to fiscal stimulus. Okay, explain to me how that leads to long-term inflation.

Fair enough, because i think the question people are asking is far broader than fiscal stimulus and when you talk about inflation, expect expectations rising. They have risen for things like the new york fed inflation expectations, survey uh the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey. Their longer-term measures are rising as well. What about a change in behavior from this businesses? For years? I can't raise prices, because someone will have a lower price that has changed.

People wouldn't pay a prior higher price because they knew they could go to a discount store and find a lower one that has changed too. People are willing to pay whatever they can to buy a car, for example, is there a risk that the expectations are changing, that changes behavior and the fed has a longer-term inflation problem than they thought it's certainly possible? I don't want to rule it out and say it's impossible, of course, not but remember think about the economic, the economy that we came out of before the pandemic. For a decade we were struggling with low inflation, low inflation expectations, not just in america, in europe, in japan, in advanced economies, all around the world that was driven by things like demographics, technology, development, low productivity trade, have our demographics changed because of the pandemic. No, if anything, they've gotten worse, and so you know we're paying very close attention to the data, but i don't want to just believe that you know japan's low inflation problem is that is that in the past now they're never going to have to deal with that Again, i find that hard to believe, and so the key here is from my perspective, as a central banker is not to overreact, we want to pay attention to the data.

So what do you all think talking about not overreacting and uh, potentially tightening too soon and a poll here to see if you all believe him so far, it looks like 38 percent of you voted yes and 62 percent of you voted no, not a lot of Fed believers here, uh yesterday, if you haven't seen it yet, i posted a video talking about uh the uh, the two paths uh that the federal reserve could potentially take and uh. You know one being the fed, overreacting and being totally wrong and one being the fed playing 40 chess and and being right about the long term and so it'd be interesting to see what all of you thought. I encourage you to watch that if you have not yet seen that yet isn't this econ 101 short-term inflation can drive inflation expectations which drives longer-term inflation well. Econ 101 might say that, but once you get to econ 102 and 103, there are many many many many many more factors that go into what what ultimately drives inflation uh and a lot of it comes down to the fact that we are in a hyper competitive Capitalistic economy, that uh is, is uh generally trying to reduce prices, not raise prices or generally trying to become more competitive and not less competitive and uh, and that that side's uh in favor of reducing prices.

So obviously not what we're seeing at the moment. But anyway, uh, let's go back uh to sticks at the moment, uh right after i mention here that uh treasury yields did pop up a little bit 1.62. Now this is uh. This is up from about that 1.58, where we just sat a couple days ago, uh.

So back over 1.6 on uh inflation expectation or the 10-year treasury, the 10-year break even has also been moving to near break. Even let's pull this quickly so 10-year break even oh yep, another move to the upside there. We go yeah. Look at this for monday.

Another move up 2.76, now all right, uh lumber down does that mean housing will go down, probably not probably not so a great macro video yesterday. Thank you for that. Uh yeah! No, i i know the majority of folks disagree with uh with the fed uh. I uh uh, you know, i hope, they're right i'll put it that way.

I think uh. You know some of the things make sense. I know a lot of people just don't believe the fed as far as they can throw them but uh. I think for the good of our markets and economy, i hope they're right so a tesla up almost two percent today at sea uh sitting at uh, two point: six: nine to the upside wow uh incredible here.

Where did g g p? I go gpi! Wasn't that doing well, it was now it's actually down 1.15 wow uh. I can't believe he's still talking hold on a second, let's see what what could he be talking about now, i'm talking about kovid, let's not lose sight of the fact that 700 000 americans are dead right. A lot of people are still afraid of the virus. That is the biggest issue facing our economy and the global economy.

Well i i think, but there certainly has been a lot of improvement there too, and more improvement expected despite the uncertainty over variance. But let's uh look at something bill. Dudley. Former president new york fed said today he thinks that the fed uh by starting the taper, so slowly and not being able to finish by june, puts it in a position where it may have to speed up the taper.

Let's listen, the taper isn't going to be completed by until june of next year on the current trajectory. That's a very slow, uh path of removal of accommodation, given the economic information that we're seeing. So i think they by locking themselves in this way, i think they've doubled down on being late um. He went on to say the inflation rate may excuse me.

The fed funds rate may end up a lot higher the market's expecting 1.75. He said it may end up at three to four percent. Is that a possibility? Is that a risk? Well, you know i can't predict the future any better than bill. Dudley can - and you know, we'll see what the economy requires and the federal reserve will adjust monetary policy to achieve our dual mandate, as we've all committed to doing, and so is the federal fund rate gon na end up at two percent or three percent.

I don't know, and either there's bill dudley, we'll have to see how things actually unfold. You know the one thing about this pandemic. Every time it seems like we've got clarity. There are new wrinkles that get introduced and new surprises that come, you know, is the next six months going to unfold exactly like okay hold on.

Let's stop on over here for a sec, seven tenths of one percent, and this is the best level going back to june when it was up 9 10 and another number coming out. Our november read on national association of home builders housing index, which happens to be up three months in a row. Will it be number four, let's go to diana oh look and find out diana well rick a strong beat on builder sentiment in november. It rose three points to 83 on the nahb index.

Anything above 50 considered positive. The street was looking for it to be unchanged still lower than last november, which hit a high of 90 builders, say. A lack of existing homes for sale and strong consumer demand are behind the optimism of the index's three components. Current sales conditions rose three points to 89 buyer traffic, also up three points to 68 sales expectations in the next six months, unchanged at 84., regionally on a three-month moving average sentiment.

Both the midwest and south rose four points to 72 and 84 respectively in the west. It rose one point to 84 in the northeast fell. Two points to 70. builders still highlight supply chain issues and a severe labor shortage, nahb's chief economist, noting 330 000 open jobs in construction.

Also, a shortage of buildable lots. Some, like dr horton, are slowing sales in order to be able to deliver on time morgan diana oleg. Thank you. We are 30 minutes into the training session.

Here are three big movers that we are watching this morning, we're gon na start with drug royalty, purchaser, royalty, geez, uh, that's incredible! Uh housing just keeps on booming it's incredible ongoing, while taper is ongoing. That's going to provide us a lot more information about where what the underlying dynamics are rather than some of these short-term movements. Okay, let me ask you about something very uh in the very near term. Tomorrow, the 10th racism and economy event sponsored by the minneapolis fed, along with the boston fed and the atlanta fed um we're gon na come back all right.

Let's go look at sticks, so uh and uh also see do we have any moves here on bloom? Let's see here, we've got pfizer. This was the the manufacturing we talked about, which is good. It was most biggest drop since september on crypto europe, grapples with surge cheap pills on the horizon. Okay, more than 10 000 australians want compensation for vaccine side effects.

Wow australia's government may face more than a 37 million bill related to its covet vaccine program, as thousands of people register for compensation from health issues related to their inoculations. This is the according to the sydney morning herald, but i swear when i read this title. I read this as shake my head: smh uh, more than ten thousand people have registered for a rare but significant side effect uh. What what's the side effect lost income uh.

Let's see here sore arm headache fever chills, really that's that that's what they've received? 79, 000 complaints about uh. These are smaller effects. Here, 280 reports of heart inflammation 160 of uh thrombosis. Nine deaths have been linked to the immunization program, overwhelming majority of whom were age 65 and older, well, interesting, uh, okay, so what else seemed a little odd? If that was the reason for uh people getting compensation for sore arm and a fever, but okay, that's what people are getting compensated for in australia.

I guess that's good for them. So let's see not much other news here: let's try, nyt! No all right. Let's uh hop on here for a moment, of course, out there and then we'll go to six. I want it to work and if we understand that better we're gon na do a better job, achieving our dual mandate again, which is better for the economy as a whole.

Ah, okay, good! That's done so uh. Take a look at this etsy and tesla both up three percent here, all of a sudden tesla running a little bit here. It's pretty incredible tesla three percent etsy up 3.3 percent lucid's up six, so less than it was earlier. Rivian's still up, seven go ev's up.