Hey everyone meet kevin here, oh man, let's just have the fed, give it to us already seriously. We got a lot of updates to talk about today, not only what's going on in the crypto market, the fed. We got to talk about. What's going on what bank of america seeing happening, uh, there's there's so much to talk about.

So let's just get right into it. Look the federal reserve start here. They just need to give us a freaking hike. Already we talked about this yesterday about how they need to get more aggressive.

What's interesting, is we had about a 30 chance of getting a 75 basis, point hike after that cpi read on friday and that consumer sentiment survey about a 32 chance of getting a 75 bp hike this wednesday at the morning or monday morning, when the market opened? Well, that shot up to 92.9. Why? Because the chief economics correspondent at the wall street journal who's a pretty prominent fed watcher and he tends to be right, says: yeah the fed's basically baking in a 75 bp hike for wednesday, and so the market took an additional little dumpy dumpy do yesterday and the Market has now priced in with almost certainty that we are going to get 75 basis points of a hike in july with a also 86.6 likelihood of a 75 basis, point hike, uh in july, sorry, the first one being june, obviously wednesday and then another one in July now, why could this be well because remember the fed likes the market to do its work for them. So all the tank is a little uh texty texty from like a neil kashgari, hey yo, you know i'm the dove um young, i'm thinking 75.. That's all it would take at the wall street journal and they're like all right thanks, we got what we need.

You know i mean that's all it would take to move the market so uh. I believe it. I think wednesday we're finally gon na get the fed showing us some balls, some seriousness and some sincerity, and i want them to update that scp, like we talked about yesterday, we're not gon na rehash all that. According to bank of america, though, stagflation fears in the economy are the highest point that we have had since june of 2008 and profit outlooks are the worst since september of 2008 boy.

I hate comparing to those uh those times and on top of that credit spreads right now or a measure of credit risk is now at the highest level since april of 2020, when we thought credit was going to get frozen, left and right, and it wasn't until The fed came out with the unlimited bailout of loans that that credit risk actually relaxed so now we're at the highest level since then of credit risk. On top of that, we've got bank of america telling us that the most crowded trades right now are along oil and commodities. 38 percent by fund managers long the u.s dollar just kicking butt and destroying most emerging market currencies falling relative to the dollar shorting treasuries shorting. China stocks about nine percent short treasuries about 13 long, esg, environmental, social governance, right uh, long cash about four percent and long btc, four percent.

This is uh very different from what we had in may of 2021. When the most crowded fund manager, trade was actually bitcoin, which obviously bitcoin is a nat one of the most crowded trades right now, we'll talk about crypto in just a moment, but i think what we're starting to see here is the beginning of a earnings recession, starting To get priced in global profit expectations are expected to fall. A net 72 percent weakest guide since september of 2008, and the latest fund manager survey suggests that investors are substantially more net cash and net commodities than ever before since also 2008. But folks, let's talk briefly about crypto, because i'm pretty sure we broke the 200 week moving average for btc of about 22 000 when we fell into that 21 000 level.

And a lot of this came after not only obviously the tara luna collapse, but the celsius withdrawal freeze, suggesting that well we're getting too close to the docks here, suggesting that maybe maybe we're gon na have liquidity problems over at some of these uh lenders like celsius Hold on boys here we go, but now we've got concerns that mr michael saylor's gon na get margin called the guys got like okay. This blows my mind. The guy took out a loan against bitcoin in march of this year. Why? The hell on the downtrend, when we know 2022 is gon na, be a stupid, freaking market to be making risky trades.

Why would you take on 250 million dollars of margin debt on bitcoin in march? You know what i think happened. I think michael still had got a little greedy, greedy, greedy and decided. Oh look we're having a rally. Bitcoin's rallying and stocks are rallying briefly in those two weeks at the end of march.

Don't get me wrong. You know i bought at the fed meeting at the bottom over there, which is obviously higher than where we are now, but i didn't go greedy and go into margin to try to amplify returns. But that's what happens? Man when the market starts losing money? People see the next rally and then you know what they do. They go stupid and they start taking on margin debt again because they're like oh well.

If i go into margin, then i'll be able to offset my losses and try to get back to the levels of wealth i had in november. But then the market turns dirty again and then you get wiped out and you go bankrupt. It's so stupid, uh and look i mean like obviously tesla holding like a billion dollars of bitcoin is gon na, be a little problematic in this next earnings cycle, because they're going to have to take a little a little larger impairment charge on that btc investment button. Look it's a problem when you have the ceo on twitter and we'll put this up on screen of celsius.

Saying hey, you know: what do you even know? One person who has ever had a problem with drawing money from celsius? Why spread fud and misinformation? You know this is like so classic right before a ponzi - or i shouldn't necessarily say a ponzi, but a bank run gets exposed. Well, actually, kind of is a ponzi, because when you rely like in order for you to pay out 17 and you're, relying on uh people to deposit money to be able to fund other people 17, that's basically a policy. But anyway, when that gets exposed and there's a bank run coming literally before every bank run, you get all the bank officials look at history. Don't worry, we have plenty of money.

We have plenty of liquidity. No, no! You freaking don't uh, but the rest of the crypto market's having issues as well. I mean coinbase. Uh is instituted now a mandatory 48-hour white listing for uh.

Any kind of withdrawal account that you want to add this used to be an optional feature where you could uh, you know have to go through this 48-hour withdrawal process as a sort of extra security. Well, now it's mandatory for everyone and to me this is kind of like a a little bit of a uh. How should i say this, i think, they're, trying to prevent the massive withdrawals that they're getting over at coinbase, so they're like well rather than just freeze withdrawals. Let's just make it a little bit more difficult for people to withdraw their money under the guise of security.

It's ridiculous. At the same time, coinbase is laying off 18 of its workforce they're cutting their employees uh by uh. That's eleven hundred employees that they're cutting block fi is reducing head count by twenty percent. Crypto.Com is reducing headcount by five percent.

I mean and honestly this sucks, like i don't wan na pretend, like i'm not getting hit by this either i've invested in block fi and uh private equity - that's probably getting screwed right now. I originally invested in coinbase until i realized the sec, oh totally, screwed over their lending and their uh. Their ceo isn't the most upfront when it comes to their policies, uh, especially that bankruptcy provision which i ranted about on twitter about a month and a half back. But whatever you know it sucks nfts are faring no better.

Just in the last 24 hours, the nft index, yeah, there's actually like an nft index, is down 23 in just 24 hours board apes down 25 in 24 hours, uh. Obviously the michael sailor information that we've talked about his margin call level by the way for that 250 mil in debt he took out is about 21 000 for btc, and we we almost knocked on the door of that at like 21, 400, so yikes. In other news, hottest retail stocks right now, tracking retail investors, who still have not capitulated by the way, which is quite crazy. I think we really need that capitulation to hit a bottom of the market, and i think one way that you could really see that sort of they call it.

A cathartic flush out is when the vix finally goes back over 40, which it still haven't hasn't yeah. That's the volatility index right. We still haven't seen that, but anyway anyway, so hottest retail stocks right now, amazon, docusign, you have the 10-year treasury still up at 3.346, it's going to kill mortgage rates. I think some a lender commented yesterday that well, first of all on bloomberg, i saw that the mortgage rates - i tweeted this we're going up to about 5.8, but usually nobody gets that market rate.

Usually you end up having to pay like multiple points to get that market rate. So uh lender commented yesterday, and this makes sense to me that they're qualifying people for between six and a quarter to six point. Five percent for mortgages right now and that's with like half a point which is just absolutely crazy. Yields curve is up to four basis points which is still pretty embarrassing, because we're pretty much next to inverted uh.

The five year break even did tick down again to three percent uh. This is actually good because i think that's the market saying that oh well, the fed's actually going to get serious now when we're pricing in that the fed's going to get serious so that should bring inflation down. So the the market's actually believing that the fed's going to actually do their job now, which is pretty remarkable dude. I can't read this thing this sucks.

I don't really need to read it, though i just kind of look at the little stats here, but boy taking this thing out on the sun man. I should just throw this in the water anyway uh. Another thing here: oh yeah. I totally forgot to mention this: video is brought to you by public, make sure to get yourself one free stock worth all the way up to a thousand dollars by going medcavan.com public.

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You go to public, they don't use payment for order flow, they don't sell your information and you should check it out because their app is really easy to use and they're fun to use, and i'm on there too. You can follow me at me: kevin okay, so uk purchasing power. This was crazy. I'm gon na put up a chart on this one.

Okay, uk purchasing power - that is spending power by those in the united kingdom, fell by the most in at least 21 years. Now. Why do we say at least 21 years? Well, we say that when the statistic was created 21 years ago - and this is the worst fall in purchasing power, yet the average decline in purchasing power for the last three months was 2.1 percent. And if you compared april to april, people were able to spend 3.4 percent less than they were able to last april so problem.

Folks, we are in a crap market, 2022 is going to suck and it's really going to suck because now we're in a position where we actually need the fed to wake up, and you know, slap us around a little bit. It's like come on fed like give it to me already and that's what we're all kind of waiting for, and now the market's pricing in and now that the market's pricing it in well. Hopefully, we can hit peak fear and peak bottom, but there's no way. I think anybody can actually call a bottom until we get inflation to meaningfully inflect down which, in my opinion, means we have pain until at least september.

Now some people are saying that this is the time to diversify. I had a lot of comments about this yesterday. Some folks are like: oh, this is time to diversify diversity. In my opinion, the time to diversify, just sort of my response is actually when the market's going euphoric.

So when the market's going euphoric, that's when you want to spread your risk, because you know these balls are going to fall - that's kind of like in november. It's like all right, let's spread out a little bit right, because what goes up must come down now when the market's down, i generally like to concentrate my position and start preparing for when we hit a bottom, then diversifying as we're moving up, but you've got to Do that research now so in today's course, member live stream, which remember you get free access to the course member live streams when you join any of the courses on building your wealth link down below 50 off coupon code as well, uh we'll be doing some more Fundamental analysis, we've already done fundamental analysis on quite a few companies and we're going to keep doing it whether it's etsy, nvidia, crowdstrike uh. You know, maybe today we'll we'll do uh docusign or you know i've actually kind of been interested in looking at some of the sasses again, because those sassy valuations have gotten unsassed, i mean we're. You know bill.com they're down like 60 and that's not to say that i'm interested in build.com right now - i don't know i haven't looked at their fundies yet, but sometimes i look at the fundies and i'm like.

Oh yeah there's a reason, i'm not in this other times. I look at them like this actually could end up being an opportunity and i'm a big fan of opportunities anyway, we're getting a little shallow over here, which means it's time for me to end the video, because i got ta dock a stupid boat. I'll see you later bye.