Hey everyone me kevin here. This video is brought to you by public.com an amazing stock trading app, and you can follow me on public.com as well. If you want to sign up and get up to 70 dollars in free stocks, go to medcabin.com public, but more on them in a bit. So first, let's talk about this nancy pelosi delay the debt ceiling.

What we got to know about it and expectations going forward for what's going on with the crazy world of congress? First, we got to talk about the delay. Nancy pelosi and house democrats promised that they would vote, have a vote on the one trillion dollar infrastructure package. That's already passed by the senate: all the house has to do is rubber stamp it. Essentially they promised they would hold a vote today.

Well, no surprise. Nancy pelosi is now suggesting, instead of passing the bill today, we're just going to begin debating on the bill today and then we'll have a vote on the 30th, but she says make no mistake quote. Let me just say we're going to pass the bill this week. Well, we've heard that before and the problem is nancy pelosi just doesn't have enough progressive votes yet in the house of representatives to actually get this one trillion dollar package passed.

This is the hard infrastructure package right, so we're talking airports, bridges, railroads, water, ports, waterways, broadband and so on and so forth thought she had. The votes didn't have the votes, because certain progressives, especially those led by the house, progressives committee, say hey, you know what we want to wait until we have three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure. The social infrastructure package lined up and ready to go then, at that point, we'd be willing to vote on the one trillion dollar package. So is nancy pelosi actually going to be able to get us a vote on that one trillion dollar package this week we'll see because right now there's a lot of work to do on that three and a half trillion dollar package.

In fact, nancy pelosi responded saying that it is currently quote self evident that the three and a half trillion dollar package might end up shrinking in size to try to get the votes needed to get both of these packages done now. Let's talk about extending the government's budget and the debt ceiling, so the house passed a funding bill that would extend the government's budget from september 30 this year to december 3rd and would suspend the debt ceiling until december of 2022. Now this bill is well has passed. The house and now is sitting in the senate.

The senate is expected to vote on cloture today. Cloture requires 60 votes and it's a fancy way of saying closing the debate. So, in my opinion, like a little trick is anytime, you hear cloture. It sounds a lot like closure, so bringing debate to closure.

It's just a quick little mental trick for that, but basically that would then take 60 votes and once debate ends, then a bill can get passed with 51 votes problem is republicans are expected not to support this bill because republicans do not want to see the debt Ceiling get extended until december of next year, so the most likely scenario is that this bill is going to fail and the senate is essentially going to amongst leadership verbally counter and say: hey bring us something that only extends the government's budget. So the government doesn't shut down, but we're going to have to talk about this debt limit issue more so now what happens if the government shuts down and what happens if the debt ceiling isn't raised, who stops getting paid, and why do we even have a debt Ceiling and where do we stand on this debate right now well before we talk about that, i've got to mention our partner for today, and that is public.com go to metkevin.com public and if you sign up through that link, metkevin.com public, you could get up to 70. In free stocks and make sure to follow me at meet kevin on public, because it's pretty neat, for example, if i invest through the public app you'll see kevin invested in sofi technologies, kevin invested in a firm notice 910 here kevin invested in a firm. It's been up pretty nicely since then, i or if, even if i write like a comment kind of like a tweet, don't buy a tesla by tesla.

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So what happens if the government shuts down? Well, if the government shuts down you end up getting a partial furlough of literally hundreds of thousands of federal workers, you end up getting museums and parks. Shutting down you get about 50 or it might be closer to like 62 percent of employees. Actually, that's it's 62 percent. I had it written down right here, 62 of cdc employees would get furloughed.

That's if the government shuts down, which is bad. We don't want the government to have to shut down again now. The worst of these is the debt ceiling, because when the debt ceiling gets passed, which again, we already have, but we literally run out of money like we can't play accounting tricks anymore. We literally run out of money, then we might also miss our payment obligations on things like treasury bonds, which treasury bonds affect interest rates in whole, lots of markets throughout the world, and you could literally some say, see the spawning of a recession.

If we miss our obligations and our payments, because that full faith and credit of the united states breaks apart, that would be really really bad. The debt ceiling is the cap. When the total amount of money, the federal reserve is authorized to borrow it matters, because we do something known as deficit spending. We spend more money than we make.

This is a big financial no-no for families, but okay for governments, because well indirectly, they run the printing press. Now, technically, we already passed our debt ceiling, but janet yellen has been going all all out on this trying to play counting tricks and games to make sure we can have as much cash as possible for as long as possible. This is why we only have best estimates in terms of when we're actually going to break that debt ceiling limit to the point where we literally run out of cash and potentially default on bonds default on social security payments or child tax care credits and those the Payments associated with those this is known as the x date because we're unsure of exactly where it is, but we expect it to be somewhere between october 15th and november 4th. This is going to create a lot of uncertainty.

A lot of this, of course, also has to do with the fact that pandemic relief is still going out to individuals and waves, but this is a mitigating factor. On october 15th, a lot of income taxes get paid for those who were on extension for their 2020 tax year, and this could end up being a windfall which would be good and would help kind of kick. The can down the road a little bit longer. On the debt ceiling right now, our national debt sits at 28.43 trillion dollars.

Our borrowing is capped at 28.4, so already over a little bit, but we're literally just going to run dry we're not going to have anything in the chests anymore. So to speak in about two to four weeks, so at this point some have argued: let's just get rid of the debt ceiling, let's borrow as much as we need to, but many in favor of keeping the debt ceiling, see it as a tool for limiting government Spending so really the only other modern country that does this is denmark, but here in america we keep it because it's really become a bargaining chip for one side to argue, hey like we can't do that bill, or we can't spend money on that because then we're Going to break the debt ceiling again, so all this has of course raised the question of. Why do we even have a debt ceiling and it's mostly become a negotiating tool so that one side can really keep the reins on another side? Spending in this case, republicans keeping reins on democrat spending, because it's an actual limit that if we breach bad things happen and it's a great tool for trying to limit spending. Although most say look, if we all agree to vote on certain bills and they're going to cost us a certain amount of money, why do we need two limits like if we're going to pass a bill? Let's pass a bill and actually fully pay for it? So this is where you get arguments around the debt ceiling from both sides.

At the same time, we've got pelosi and chuck schumer racing to come up with a framework for the three and a half trillion dollar package, and we've got a lot of drama around this. For example, many republicans are now echoing donald trump's talk about this bill being a quote fake infrastructure bill composed of just 11 infrastructure and saying that it's not real infrastructure. Now, most don't actually think that he's talking specifically about the bipartisan infrastructure package, which is mostly bridges, railroads, airports and hard infrastructure things big ones. We expect that donald trump is talking about the social infrastructure package.

Now mccarthy tries to separate this and make it a little bit more clear and agrees that the big three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure plan is just a big social liberal wish list. Buddy carter, a republican representative, didn't have anything good to say about this. In fact he said quote: we have a spending problem. We need to cut up the credit card and avoid this cradle-to-grave government dependency that ruins the american dream.

It's a socialistic nightmare they're willing to shut down the government to be reckless spenders. Now. Obviously, democrats argue that we should have things like universal pre-k paid leave and the extension of the child tax credit along with taxing, wealthier individuals more, but republicans make the argument that it is not the responsibility of government to raise the credit limit to continue to pay. For socialistic spending he goes on to say, democrats want to raise the debt ceiling to get through their three and a half trillion dollar socialism wish list.

We call this the build more inflation act. That's obviously a play on the fact that joe biden's plan is called the bill back, better plan build back better and so a republicans counter. No, it's build more inflation anyway. Now it's worth noting that democrats have also expressed concerns right now and that's because a lot of democrats say they're just not going to support the 1 trillion bill, which nancy pelosi says: she'll have a vote on the 30th until the 3.5 trillion dollar bill is done And ready to sign, but that's a problem, because the 30th is in three days and the three and a half trillion dollar bill doesn't even have a solid agreed upon framework.

Yet amongst democrats now, let's talk about expectations and try to tie this all together. So here are my thoughts. I think we're probably going to get this one trillion dollar infrastructure package done and out of the way, i think we'll get it done around the same time that we kick the can down the road on funding the government, hopefully to the end of the year. That is my optimistic scenario that we get that one trillion dollar package out of the way both sides agree on that get it out of the way get it funded, get going on it and then get that budget extended for the government, then we're gon na have To have to talk about the debt ceiling, i don't think we're actually going to get the debt ceiling increased unless that's part of a broader budget reconciliation package which could be that three and a half trillion dollar infrastructure package.

But that means congress is going to have to work day and night to get that three and a half trillion dollar package done and signed and raised that debt ceiling before october 15th. It's possible. Those could be some pretty tenuous days and we might end up day by day going. Okay, we've only got this much money left in the pot.

We've got about two days left. We got 48 hours left before we miss our obligations. That's gon na motivate democrats really hard to get that three and a half trillion dollar package, sealed and and done it's possible that it might be smaller as nancy pelosi has already alluded, maybe it'll be like 2.9 trillion dollars. Joe biden doesn't think so he thinks that 3.5 is already a compromise and we'll see but everything's going to come down to the wire in the next few weeks here, because we're going to be running out of money soon.

So these are my expectations. Hopefully, this summary was very helpful for you if it was make sure to subscribe, check out public by going to mckenna.com public and get your free stock worth all the way up to 70 and folks we'll see in the next one thanks so much bye. You.