The economy and stock market are starting a major U-turn but nobody seems to be paying attention.
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The message of doom and gloom is getting louder while the numbers are indicating that the 2023 recession and biggest ever 2023 stock market crash may be less likely than some people will say.
In this video I discuss some macro economic factors impacting the economy and the stock market and the key difference between paying attention to what people say and what people do.
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Hey guys, it's Sasha Pay attention. The world's Financial system is starting to do a massive U-turn but nobody is talking about it sometimes I Feel like I'm sitting here talking to a wall and the reason nobody's talking about it is because talking about this U-turn does not make for good business newspapers. YouTubers Social media influencers Whatever will tell you that everything is collapsing because panic and fear is good for views. The government of politicians will tell you that everything is also collapsing because it sells unpopular policies.

It sells austerity. It sells obedience from voters who have been injected with fear about money. Fear about being able to pay their rent, Fear about being able to make their mortgage payments, Fear about being unable to pay their electricity bill because electricity prices have gonna buy a hundred percent after Putin Invaded Ukraine And of course, oil prices are lower right now than they were before Putin Invaded Ukraine and so are gas prices. They are also lower than before the war in Ukraine.

But hey, who cares about what's actually happening in the real world? Because in April Energy prices in the UK are going up another 50 of the price that we paid a year ago. because in the UK the cost of electricity has gone up from 1200 pounds a year for the average household to 3 000 pounds in April. And for some very peculiar reason, nobody and I mean nobody in the mass media is asking the question why the actual is this happening and I'm gonna tell you why is because people are very slow to react. That's human nature.

The government is slow to react to a changing landscape. Investors are slow to react to economic changes that are happening right in front of their nose. People's minds work in a very specific way. We see a pattern happening in the past, and naturally our brain extrapolates that pattern so we think it is a direct explicit indicator of what of course will happen in the future.

Except that not how it works. We see the market going up and everyone gets massively excited. We have a stock buying frenzy. Everyone's becoming a multi-gazillionaire by buying the latest.

Trend Then the market starts going down for a year and we have the exact opposite effect and it's very difficult to get yourself out of this Loop and not follow the herd because the exact opposite of what everyone is saying tends to happen more often than not. Incidentally, if you want to read a great book about this exact issue, you should go and read the subtle art of not giving a by. Mark Manson And if you want to get all the key ideas from the book in just 19 minutes, you can read or listen to the highlights on Blinkists, who are the sponsors of today's video. Blinkist is an app that lets you understand the most important points and arguments from over five and a half thousand books and podcasts in around 15 minutes and some time ago.

I Read this book By Mark Manson in full that I liked way more than I thought I would and Blinkist is the perfect tool to get a summary as a reminder if you want to come back and revisit books in the future or just to get an idea of what the book is about without having to go and read the full thing. One of the key ideas in that book was that sadly many of us go through life as if our experiences were imposed upon us. We see ourselves as the unhappy victims of Life circumstances. It's this victim mentality that dictates so much of our lives today.


It's actually pretty neat how Blinkus breaks down books into these key ideas that you can quickly scan through I Want to be a smarter investor in 2023 and Blinkist will help me get through a lot more books I wouldn't otherwise have time to read and you can get 25 off Blinkist premium by using my link in the description. You'll get a seven day free trial to test it out and you get two memberships for the price of one, so your wife, girlfriend, or whoever can get access as well as you for free. The Blinkers Connect feature is included in the same deal, so make sure you go and check out that link in the description. So talking about paying attention, it is incredibly important to understand what you should be paying attention to because most people pay attention to what people say.

And this is wrong because people pay a lot of attention to what politicians say. Look, politicians are saying that a recession is coming. We all need to go and tighten our belts. Is going to be long and painful, Everyone's going to lose money, and everyone's going to be extremely poor.

But you have to remember that politicians aren't here to give you their best educated, actual assessment of the direction of the economy. They are here to get you to vote for them. That is their primary objective for you to feel like they are on your side. So right now we've had a market downtown.

We've had a year-long recession without it being given the official status. People have lost money in their Investments. Of course people are feeling down. so as a politician, you have to level with the people and tell them what they want to hear.

They are all victims of these unfortunate circumstances far beyond their control and the politician really feels your pain. Then you have the U.S Federal Reserve Bloody Bloody Blah Speech. Every day, everyone is listening to every single word of every single speech that Jerome Powell gives and everyone latches onto each of these words as though it is some kind of divine gospel. And I know it makes for popular content.

on YouTube To go and stick your own Pal's face and your thumbnail on. Talk about whether he's hawkish or dovish or piggish or whatever animal you like. Truth is, it doesn't matter. The FED does not create macroeconomic patterns.

The FED is not some kind of God that instills economic future unto you. The FED only reacts to things that are happening. The FED is a lagging indicator. By the time the FED starts doing something, the boat has already sailed.


But people have short-term memories and they forget it That this is exactly what happened when inflation started going up and how long it took the FED to actually change their tune. This is exactly what's happening right now that inflation is coming right back down. Stop paying attention to what politicians say and the FED are also politicians. Even if they pretend otherwise, stop paying attention to what the media who wants to sell bad news say instead pay attention to numbers.

CME Group Data says that there is now a 99.8 percent sensors in the stock market among analysts that interest rates will only go up by a quarter of a percent next week. and the Wall Street Journal has just broken this apparently highly controversial news story that the FED might pause increases in merge. How unfathomable? Who could possibly have thought about it? Everyone is so surprised the NASDAQ is up seven percent year to date and continues going up. And yet these are all lagging reactions to Data.

I was saying that this is by far the most likely outcome Some weeks ago And many of the comments told me that I am a complete idiot because I'm not listening to all this noise. That's saying that everything is definitely 100, no doubt going to collapse immediately. more. Street Analysts have been downgrading stocks like no tomorrow for months because the stock price was going down.

Nothing to do with the fundamentals. Nobody cares what the actual projections are, stock goes down, the stocks gets re-evalued by the Banks down stock goes up, the prices go back up. the analyst follow rather than predict. For the whole of the second half.

last year, all you heard was that the worst ever recession was certain it was a hundred percent. Coming in 2023 is going to see the biggest Financial meltdown you have ever seen. Michael Barry Sitting there tweeting every day and here we are in January 2023 and what does CNBC say? Barclays Upgrades AMD Stock JPMorgan upgrades Wayfair Deutsche Bank upgrades Shopify Goldman Sachs thinks that Microsoft and Amazon are a buy? Well I never. Don't get me wrong, the U-turn is going to take some time because we're about to enter earnings season where companies will deliver their Q4 results and the level of fear injected into people last year was astounding.

Energy Prices shot up through the roof. Everyone was talking about the inevitable blackouts that are coming. We're all going to be sitting there huddling around a candle to stay warm. but European gas storage is at 83 percent in January about 56 more gas stored than in January last year.

So back in Q4 consumer spending dipped on the back of all the Doom and Gloom consuming confidence dipped and I am sure we're going to get some very interesting, pretty bad results in some cases where companies will underperform Panic will of course ensue because people will look back at what happened in the past instead of trying to understand what's going on and how that will affect what happens in the future. Oh my. God Company X sold less than expected sell the stock Panic Go and throw your toys out of the pram. Oh my God Companies wise margins were low in Q4 they had to lower prices.


let's go and cry a river. Over the next few weeks you will see a chunk of the this negative sentiment is almost guaranteed. All the while, key commodity prices have fallen sharply all the way through the second half of last year. Energy Prices are down and this means companies are extremely well positioned going into 2023.

the media has been obsessed with Microsoft Google Amazon firing staff in recent weeks. it's all over the front page, so you're reading the stuff thinking boy, things are really bad when all these big Tech Giants are getting rid of ten thousand or twelve thousand employees each. But the fact is that many of these companies were incredibly bloated and they are just trimming fat something that they probably should have done some time ago. Google has a 160 000 employees that is pretty extraordinary if you actually think how many people that is and what all those people must do.

Amazon has 1.6 million employees. Of course they have the whole delivery. Network So their redundancies are a drop in the ocean. U.S Unemployment data is showing historic lows at three and a half percent, which means that an unusually high number of people are still in jobs earning money despite what happened last year.

Now the power of that money has dropped because of inflation. Real earnings are down, but inflation has already started to come down massively over the last few months, and inflation-adjusted earnings in the US have dipped in the last few quarters after the artificial pandemic boost. But they are higher today than at any point before 2020. So maybe just just maybe perceptions of what is normal and what is good? Because completely out of whack when free money flooded in, it went into the market, it went into people's pockets.

We had stimi checks people come back on expenses during code by staying at home and not spending on anything. It is an unpopular thought I Am aware because it plays right against the victim mentality. but here we are staring at: Cold Hard numbers the U.S Industrial Production Index dipped slightly in December but still sits at historically high levels way above where it was from 2012 to 2020. But it's not all Rosy It is important to acknowledge that it is not all easy.

U.S Consumer Debt was at 16 and a half trillion dollars in Q3 last year, which is very high and at the same time personal savings rate collapsed hitting 2.2 percent in October before rebounding ever so slightly in November People are borrowing money to pay their bills so it seems and have a lot less money that they can say save or choose to save. All this is happening at a time when interest rates are going up. This is going to exert pressure on household budgets as we move through 2023.. at the same time, the personal savings rate is not an indicator of an impending recession.


I'm not sure where people got this notion from because lower savings rate also tends to mean higher spending. Lower savings rate tends to happen during a period of Boom It is actually more common for the personal savings rate to increase in a recession because people are spending less money and they tighten their belts more than perhaps is necessary. and there is a long-term downward macro trend on the savings rate anyway, as putting money away has become less and less popular over the decade. So in 2023, are we going to have the worst ever year for investing? Are we all doomed? Is everything is going to crash to the lowest level you've ever seen? Well, it's certainly possible because anything is possible in the 2020s, but the numbers certainly indicate the livelihood is pointing in a different direction and the sky in front at the moment looks a heck of a lot more blue than the gray clouds overhead.

If you found the video useful, please don't forget to smash the like button for the YouTube algorithm. Thank you Blinkist for sponsoring this video. Remember to check the link below to subscribe and thank you for watching this video. I'll see you guys later.


By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

26 thoughts on “Pay attention”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Big Dawg says:

    I asked ChatGPT to summarise the book.
    Q. Can you please summarise the key points from the book "the subtle art of not giving a f*ck" by Mark Manson

    A: "The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck" is a self-help book by Mark Manson that encourages readers to prioritize their values and focus on the things that truly matter to them. The book argues that people often waste their time and energy on things that don't matter to them, and that instead of trying to be positive and happy all the time, it's more beneficial to learn how to accept and deal with negative emotions. Some key points from the book include:

    It's not possible to be happy all the time, and trying to avoid negative emotions can actually make them worse.

    People have a limited amount of "fucks" to give, so they should be selective about what they care about and what they don't.

    It's important to have values and set priorities, and to focus on what's truly important to you in life.

    It's okay to have problems and to experience negative emotions, and it's important to learn how to deal with them in a healthy way.

    We should focus on the things that we can control, and accept the things that we can't control.

    We should not be afraid to fail, as it is a part of learning and growing.

    We should always strive to be better and to improve ourselves.

    We should be willing to take the risks and put ourselves out there, even if it means facing rejection or disappointment.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ammar HUSSAIN says:

    Simply brilliant 👏

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Hiana Guidetta says:

    I'm celebrating a $30k Crypto portfolio today. I started this journey with $4000 have invested on time and also with the right tearn now I have time for my family and the life ahead of me

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Bilbo Jenkins says:

    Are you and Tomer Nash still friends?

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Just Studying says:

    Love your inflation analysis but keen for your thoughts on leading economic indicators such as ISM PMIs (below 50), consumer sentiment, inverted yield curve, transition to quantitative tightening (QT) given the mad rally in 2020 was fuelled by QE. This all has me rather reluctant to pull the trigger and get back into the market because the data suggests there is more downside than upside potential

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Andy's Fishing Wild Cook says:

    Did you just say that the fed has no affect on the market? I'm pretty sure 4% interest rates compared to 0.25% will have an effect.

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Robyn Latchman says:

    Thank you for your work!!

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars stan lob says:

    Completely disagree with you on this one, Саша😝. I am thinking next few weeks will be disastrous…
    The words for you “Peak earnings”
    Pay attention to forward guidance, not “OK” earnings for this quarter .
    Earnings is the PAST. Guidance is future!!!

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars ID10T says:

    Sorry. But I'm so broke I cant even pay attention.

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Peter Ritchie says:

    Yes please. More panic button.

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ralf Ostertag says:

    Could not agree more. 2023 will be a bullish year. Folks are moving money out of the bond market and the safe blue chip stocks to invest in innovation stocks .. it has already begun.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Black Circle says:

    good to see a bounce back. Given me more confidence that its just apart of the cycle.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars TheNewSchoolInvestor says:

    I am and have been bearish on the markets lately and I feel like the abysmal savings rate in conjunction with high interest rates and elevated costs of literally everything are issues that are being downplayed. If the amount of people using credit just get by increases noticeably, I think we're going to have a problem. The fact that my adjustable mortgage payment is up 50% since spring 2022 and a dozen eggs are still $7 isn't a good sign

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars FU Jobu says:

    Refreshing… tired of hearing all the doom and gloom sheep yell into the recession echo chamber..

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Papy St@cks says:

    I'm with you on this one !

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars holycrapitsjake says:

    yes, pay attention. unemployment low but labor participation still below pre-pandemic, auto loan defaults increasing, home builder sentiment is ass, home buyer sentiment is ass, banks upping their loss provisions, plenty of zombie corporations still hanging on by a thread, absolutely zero reason to expect oil production to increase and demand to dip during first half of 2023, fed has been fully executing their consumer demand destruction strategy as they've stated and there's absolutely no reason for them to pivot until they realize they waited too long (as per usual), etc etc etc.
    i'm cautiously DCA'ing back into the stock market while continuing to build my cash reserves. but half the "numbers" look like shit, so there's no real reason to expect a miracle 180 in the next few months.

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars SF Glim says:

    You are the only genuine finance creator on youtube, love your content

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Remodel Calculator says:

    don't you all want the stocks to drop, so ya'all buy them at discount? seems more like yo'all want to overpay, including sasha

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Positively charged says:

    Why electricity prices are so high in the UK see wristwatch has used to generate

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Marcus says:

    When you sit and watch the mainstream media it’s hard not to laugh at how hard they are working to stay relevant..All proper journalism is gone..I don’t think they would have viewership of more than 5% of 35 and under age group..I think even that is generous..Great video Sasha..Your a calm head in stormy waters..

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars 1humanbeing1 says:

    Hey Sasha you should mention in your videos about the scam replies to peoples comments left and tell people to be aware that it is scammers and not to reply to them. Just as a courtesy to your subscribers , paying or not. I’ve had 2 of them reply to my comments left on your videos already. Thanks

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Steve Kowalski says:

    Interest rates are 5% certainly no growth stock can survive now, they are all going to zero! sell this 50% bear market bounce fast before you lose all your gains again, that will work until it doesn't!

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Captain_Mulligan says:

    I will not pay attention, don't tell me what to do

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Anatoly says:

    The only positive video I saw recently. Thanks.

  25. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Gloria Fisherman says:

    $36,000 weekly from my $10,000 investment all thanks to Mrs Mary Lynn crawford.

  26. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Chuck Murray says:

    Sasha, don't ever change!

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