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โš ๏ธโš ๏ธโš ๏ธ #amc #ape #amcstock โš ๏ธโš ๏ธโš ๏ธ
AMC stock. Adam Aron. APE stock. Amazon movies investment.
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Hey, everyone meet Kevin here. I Think it's time to have an honest discussion about AMC in this video. We're going to talk about how much Ape AMC has sold. We're going to do some projections to try to understand the AMC valuation. We'll talk about what Amazon just announced and how much that could move the box office from a fundamentals point of view. Now look I've been a little aggressive about uh, Ape and I've mostly been aggressive about Ape and AMC because I kind of thought that Ape was a rip-off and was going to hurt a lot of people. So I sold my own Ape shares and kind of told everyone it'd probably be a good idea to do that as well. and I want you to see the passion in that video clip which I'll show you right here. Let's make this very, very clear: Ape is a ploy. It is a ploy to hope that Meme stock Traders pump up Ape stock to the moon. so that way there's a sustained Market AMC can dump shares, raise lots of money, and pay off their debt. and again, if you want a free Nft to Showcase how stupid it is to hold your Ape shares, make sure to go to the AMC Investor Connect website and get your free Nft because let me tell you, Ape Shares are going to be worth as much as that Nft is going to be worth zero in six to 12 months. I expect to ticker symbol 8 will be worth one dollar or less. That would be an 86 percent decline from today and it'll be worthless and delisted soon after that. The hope is that AFC will have paid off all of their debt before ape becomes worthless. but until 8 becomes worthless, AMC will continue to use it as a free money printer and this is a brilliant farce. So I got a lot of hate from the AMC Community for this I was called a shill, a sellout, a suit. Yet I sold my AP shares at over eight dollars and now it's trading for 1.21 cents. We're almost at the one dollar that I predicted and I'm not trying to Pat myself on the back I'm just trying to help people see a red flag when I see it and people got mad at me for selling in January In hindsight, I wish I never got back in right because I was right about selling and so when I see something fundamental I'm not suggesting you copy me exactly or do exactly what I say. All I would say is hey, let's have a reasonable dialogue and try to understand what's actually going on. With that said, let's talk about AMC the movie theater and let's talk about this: Amazon deal that just came out. So we're gonna incorporate these two things first. in the last: earnings. Adam Aaron Suggested that hey, you know what? We've had a soft box office quarter and so revenue is declined sequentially. That means quarter over quarter. Okay, uh, In Fairness, they did. And if you put the quarter over quarter numbers in red on the left, you'd actually be able to properly compare the quarter over quarter numbers. See, we don't really want to compare to Uh 2021 because people weren't going to movie theaters as much. We kind of want to compare quarter to quarter and maybe even back to 2019.. Back in 2019, we were doing around 1 to 1.3 billion dollars of Revenue and in Q2 it looked like we were kind of going back in that direction at about 1.16 billion dollars of Revenue. However, quarter of a recorder, those revenues slipped in total 17 and you can see how the categories have declined here. Other theater: Revenue down 24. Other revenues of course, come from Those ads that you see before a movie plays and things like gift cards. Okay, then we saw operating expenses stable in Q2 which is good. We really don't want to see these explode because that would mean employee costs are going up right. And then Q2 they were at 402.2 and in Q3 they were again stable 400.6 Okay, good, so stable operating. The industry just shrunk a little bit. That's not necessarily AMC's fault, That's just okay. A bad box office quarter. The biggest problem with AMC though, is of course, over here: Corporate borrowings. Corporate borrowings went up with. The expense went up by about five million dollars as interest rates are increasing and AMC refinanced some of its debt, presumably presumably at a higher interest rate, leading to this higher interest expense in the quarter rising from 80 million dollars to 85.1 The operating loss if you just consider operations uh, was only 16.1 million dollars. But then when you take out other costs and depreciation and of course interest, you get to a total loss of 226 million dollars. And if you want to know what kind of cash burn that is in terms of cash flows, since obviously depreciation isn't an actual cash expense, cash burn is sitting at 179.2 million dollars, which is a little bit of a problem given that right now AMC has 684.6 million dollars. So how do we reconcile all of this? And if you want to know the refinance information that's actually sitting right here, they refinanced a 471 million dollar loan at 12.75 That, by the way is why. yes, your interest expense is rising. So you've got a company in an industry that is somewhat shrinking, you don't actually have a lot of cash, operating expenses are are stable, and your interest expense is rising at 85 million per quarter. You actually don't have a lot of runway. In fact, if we do some quick math, we can see with 684.6 million dollars of cash, assuming they get to a break, even without touching their credit lines, they have two years of cash and then they're out of cash. Then they have to start borrowing again. Uh, if you don't go break even and you keep having these negative nearly 200 million dollar quarters, you'll be out of cash at AMC in three months and then unfortunately it's either borrow more, increasing that, uh, that corporate debt expense or it's go bankrupt. But we have to talk about this thing called Ape Ape are the AMC preferred Equity shares. Uh, I Got a lot of heat for talking about these ape shares basically being a setup uh, and a tool for AMC to basically just give the AMC Apes that is retail investors something to be excited about, Something to go to the moon for, something to go fight for only to turn around and dump those shares on that retail audience using the money they raise there to pay off the debt at AMC now. I Personally actually thought this was a pretty creative Ploy because if they could rip off retail investors, at least they would be able to pay off their debt. And if they paid off their debt, they could make sure that the 30 000 people who work at AMC don't go jobless if the company goes bankrupt. Unfortunately, the company hasn't done a really good job at ripping people off I Hate to say that because the stock has plummeted as I Unfortunately predicted, the stock has plummeted from where I sold it in the Eight dollar range all the way to as we see here, a dollar and 21 cents. But what bothers me the most is that this stock. This is the weekly chart by the way. Let's zoom out to the day chart here so you can see this a little more. You could see with every one of these ticks representing a day they this company AMC had plenty of days to dump shares all over here. Look at that. you had almost all of all you had. You had 30 days here. 30 days that you could have sold this stock for over five dollars. Over five dollars. They could have sold the stock for and dumped on retail. and what did they decide to do instead? Well, they didn't. Instead they decided to just sell 14.9 million shares, raising only 36.4 million dollars which is a drop in the bucket relative to the debt they have. 36.4 million dollars doesn't even pay for two weeks of Interest it's bad and if you divide these two it means as of on November 8th they've been selling at a 2.44 average. Now the Stock's only worth a buck 21. So they have to sell twice as many shares just to raise more money. And I think they're starting to panic because you even see that today, which is really weird today. AMC stock actually Rose 4.3 percent. but ape stock which usually moves in conjunction with AMC stock fell four percent. That's really weird. And look at this massive volume boost. All of a sudden you went from an average of 13 to 20 million shares traded all the way to 46 million shares. That's a difference of about 25 million shares which In fairness if they sold. If this was AMC selling, they potentially raised another congratulations two weeks worth of Interest 30 million dollars except they pushed the stock more into the abyss. That's the ape shares now. I Expect ape to be milk to dry and basically become completely worthless. This is what I've been saying for a while now, but sometimes people get mad at me when I Talk about fundamentals. So what am I going to do? Well, No, I'm not going to pitch you my program on fundamental analysis, stocks, and psychology of money zero to millionaire real estate investing with a 60 off Black Friday coupon code which comes up in a couple days, but instead I'm gonna talk dirty to you and give you some more fundamental analysis Amazon Announced today that they plan to invest one billion dollars to produce 12 to 15 feature films a year that they would air in cinemas. The box office, according to Bloomberg intelligence is expected to grow by 18.4 percent in 2023 and could go up by another 15 to 20 percent because of Amazon That's because in 2022, we are uh, sitting at about 1 or 7.6 billion dollars of a box office. that'll go up to hopefully 9 billion in 2023 and maybe even another 15 to 20 on top of that if this uh, AMC uh plan comes to fruition in 2023. So what do we want to do? Well, let's take Amazon or um, Amazon Let's take AMC's revenue and let's just average out Q2 and Q3 And let's take about a billion dollars of Revenue just to make math easy, Let's just say that's about your average quarterly. Revenue Let's now try to understand some future projections for this company and what the valuation of this company actually looks like. Let's grow one billion dollars by 18.4 and 20. So in other words, we're going with the best case scenarios here. Like this is a pretty bullish scenario that would generate about 1.4 billion dollars of revenue for AMC if we then subtract out the 27 percent that usually goes of total revenue that goes to the films, they split those revenues about 50 50 to the film companies, and we take out 65.4 percent for rent, food, and operating expenses. Keep in mind the actual operating expenses last quarter were about 70.4 percent. but because rent should be pretty stable since you have a bunch of empty seats, I'm actually taking a whole five percent off of that margin. I'm giving them an extra five percent margin just because of the scale that they could get since they're paying rent whether the seats are full or not, right? So I feel like I'm being generous here I'm using the biggest numbers possible on growth and the biggest growth or or a larger margin here. that would leave them about a hundred and seven point eight million dollars if we then subtract out about 85 to 82 million dollars of debt expense maybe even uh, well. I guess it'll probably be like 85 to 90.

somewhere around there since it's kind of trending up a little bit as they do refinances and such that would leave about 15 to 20 million dollars in profit per quarter for AMC In this potential best case scenario, which if you divide, it'll just say 20 million dollars of profit by the about 1 billion shares outstanding which I just want to show you so you don't think I'm making these numbers up, the share is outstanding are right there. These keep in mind are the diluted share counts so they consider AP and all that right? So now if we take about 15 million in profit, you'll be at about an EPS of 1.5 cents. If you take 20 million, it'll be about 2 cents. So you're somewhere between one and a half to two cents of Eps. Which if we annualize that, forget seasonality for a moment. just annualize it times four gets you to about six cents of earnings divided by the current share price is seven dollars. or take the share price divided by that 7.64 cents. You're basically in an optimistic scenario looking at a P E ratio of about 127 times, which for a company that's not a growth company that's a startup and has really good long-term prospects, the valuation is really high and you have to make some really optimistic scenarios to make this one work again. The assumptions are that box office revenues and AMC would equally benefit from that or growing at 18.4 plus 20 percent. Uh, revenue is about 1.4 billion per quarter the last time. By the way, they were around 1.3 billion dollars before the pandemic was 2019. And they actually lost money like their margin was less than two percent. except I'm assuming a 7.55 margin in this generous scenario. I Don't know. like let's let's try to be positive here, but this is very, very risky if you now add to the fact that Ape is failing because they're trying to sell it. but they did it too late. Like the idea to rip people off and pay off the debt was there, but they failed at it. It's just just not looking good. That's all. I Got to say. that's it. That's it. Look, Is it possible that if the stock market rallies going into CPI or into 2023 as inflation comes down? Is it possible that the stock meme rallies and risk rallies? absolutely? Is it a good fundamental play? I'll leave it up to you.

By Stock Chat

where the coffee is hot and so is the chat

24 thoughts on “Amazon bailing out amc amc ape moon vs bankruptcy”
  1. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Paullus says:

    Before you decide to get paid by and endorse a company that literally scams everyone, you should probably do as much research as you did for this video. Donโ€™t sell everyone on FTX and then walk it back. AMC as a company was affected greatly by Covid, by no fault of their own, and the hedge funds that want to see a company die because of that deserve to get what is coming to them. I respect your analysis on most things but this, I donโ€™t. Stay out of this lane because you donโ€™t belong in it.

  2. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Vernatron says:

    bailing out amc? hmmm sureee

  3. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Paullus says:

    It honestly feels like when you come out with these videos the market is going to go through a rally and youโ€™re trying to persuade people to not buy AMC during the rally. Fundamental play or not, I bet the gains from AMC during the bear market rally will be higher than House Hack will ever be.

  4. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars DiscreetBtm xxx says:

    Please re-upload your AMC/APE video as time is proven you are right as you see through the tricks back then when we were all led to believe what AA believed we should believe !

  5. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Paullus says:

    I really like most of your content but when it comes to AMC, you miss the whole point of the play. Itโ€™s funny you come out with these videos when technically on the charts AMC looks bullish. The shorts could get squeezed and because of the market in general and you come out with a negative video when everyone knows this is not a technical stock. It could be one day but it is about much more than that and you just donโ€™t get it. Stick to what you know best and leave AMC out of it!!

  6. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars James K says:

    APE is $3.30 right now, not $1.00

  7. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ben Paullus says:

    I wish you would have put as much thought into FTX before you sponsored them as you did the financials of non-financial play. Probably would have been a good idea to do a deep dive into a company that you sponsored before you gave them a platform on your channel.

  8. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dirty Sanchez says:

    I don't think the apes are gonna let something with the name ape disappear is not about fundamentals is just a meme share that will go up just for the hell of it lol.

  9. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dirty Sanchez says:

    Monday the apes might send this to the moon lol

  10. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dillon Tavares says:

    To the moon as they say!

  11. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Cole McCormick says:

    kevins thesis is "AMC is scaming its investors with APE shares" fundamentals are in the hands of the people running the largest theater chain on the globe, I have to assume that business people want their business to profit. retail has always been clear, this is a squeeze play. narrative is evolving into "get AMC out of debt, better chance for the squeeze" kevin feels misleading because he fails to acknowledge manipulation and short selling, the SEC reform being voted on dec 16, and phase 6 contracts expiring at the end of the year. kevin scams people but advertising FTX and his courses, not publicly traded companies GIVING investors more.

  12. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars drshlotzkin says:

    As if anything is real in the market based on "fundamentals". If they want a stock to go down it will go down. If they want a stock to go up. It will go up.

    How you can pretend anything other is absolute lying and are part of the problem.

  13. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Mara Hunt says:

    You forget to mention many things.
    1, the amount of movie releases was way down with AMC putting that $ up with only 25% of pre pandemic new movies.
    2, The credit card getting released before end of year
    3, AMC microwave popcorn etc being released in stores early to mid 2023.
    Pretty convenient timing to flashback to APE bashing. T90 is when exactly?

  14. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Ja Rule says:

    Thanks for all the financial advice kev. I sold because of your advice. ๐Ÿ˜†

  15. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Baby Jesus says:

    We don't listen to drunk drivers you have no credentials here sir. Go find a different occupation. ๐Ÿ˜‚

  16. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The Bully of Wall Street - Don Diamond Hands ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ says:

    How you have a motorcycle jacket and no motorcycle ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ Damn you doing worst than we thought ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

  17. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The Bully of Wall Street - Don Diamond Hands ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ says:

    He lost weight, property, YouTube money and bought back in AMC and APE ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

  18. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Orion Liebowitz says:

    Kevin I like the reasonable dialogue and I wish more people could do that

  19. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars dan foley says:

    Maybe you should go heavy shorting AMC, I mean your fundamental analysis worked so well for FTX. See my fellow diamond hands on the moon.

  20. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars The Bully of Wall Street - Don Diamond Hands ๐Ÿ’Ž๐Ÿ™Œ says:

    Shilligans Island ๐Ÿ๏ธ ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

  21. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars MWFUCKING3 says:

    paper handed lilbitch
    I diss u

  22. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Sabina Abrahim says:

    He never had amc

  23. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Veronica SunShine says:

    I'm a very concentrated investor but sometimes there is value in adding a small new position. It isn't for diversification. Focusing on something new provides a productive distraction from overthinking what you already own. It allows you and your portfolio to breathe a little bit. I always listen to kevin.

  24. Avataaar/Circle Created with python_avatars Dofus Touch Breakdown With Future Flash says:

    i listened to kevin and sold ape and lets just say i see why he the MF GOAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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