Oh boy. Tesla's absolutely getting reamed in the stock market today and there are a few catalysts as to why one of them you're not going to want to hear about. I'm just going to start with it. Remember what happened at the end of last year wasn't good Tesla Lost $100 in the span of 30 days? Yeah, I Kid you not and that pain started.

Guess what date? December 1st it literally happened all in December Look at this pain. you went from $192 on Tesla down to 101 free fall into the end of the year. Now there was a reason for that. Tax loss harvesting.

Will that happen again? Well, here's the thing now this is: this is an interesting one. Okay, in order to tax loss, Harvest you have to have gains somewhere else to offset. A lot of people are making the argument that this year's tax loss harvesting cycle for stocks that are getting beat up at towards the end of the year here won't be as bad because people have less gains to offset elsewhere, or their income is lower elsewhere. So maybe the end of this year won't actually be as painful as last year.

We also have substantially fewer inflation fears compared to the fears that we had last year where we still thought there was a reasonable possibility of getting Paul Vulker. Fortunately, those fears have subsided and the hopeful reality is that we won't revisit some of the pain of last year. However, this is Tax Lawless harvesting time. This is the time when financial advisers call their clients and when Bankers call their clients and go hey, uh, want to do some loss harvesting That way they can churn out some commission if their Brokers or you know, do their job I mean either as a broker or an investment adviser suggesting hey, here's a tax savings opportunity for you.

That is the way the world works so that is very common. Fortunately, it doesn't seem like we have Elon selling pressure again this year. But what we do have is pessimism. For example, HSBC today released their bearish price target for Tesla suggesting Tesla could go down to $146 per share.

That's exactly the opposite of what's happening with the noob verse Pro courses where this Friday the price will be going up. This will be your last chance to get in under $100 for the newers pro pre-sales There are like 10 different courses there you could choose from. You want any kind of special bundles uh with some of the existing courses. Make sure to email us at staff meetkevin.com but let's understand this right here.

Hsbc's 146 price Target uh is based on the challenge of actually getting to 20 million Vehicles produced by the year 2030. Now we're about to roll into 2024 and for 2024, we're looking at maybe being able to get growth of about 35% on vehicles delivered. Maybe we're lucky we get to like 39% That would get us to about 2.5 million vehicles for Tesla. Okay, 2.5 million vehicles per for Tesla in 20124 is going to have to grow at a pretty good rate to try to get to 20 million vehicles by the end of the year.

If we do the math quickly, together we go, We got 25, 26, 27, 28. Uh, Five, Six, 7, 8. Yeah, there we go. One two more if I compound 2.5 million Vehicles by a 30% growth rate all the way through 2030.

I get you about 12 million Vehicles By 2030, that's at a 30% growth rate. Now if we go at the current growth rate of about 39 %, so we go all the way up to basically nearly 40% we're getting to about 18 million vehicles and that's about the trajectory we're on right now. To get to 20 million, Vehicles you really only have to grow by about 41% So I'm not entirely sure that Hsbc's argument is highly valid that that can't be pulled off. Uh, but I will say with interest rates at this level, it does feel unlikely that Tesla would grow it 41% especially since Elon Musk in the last earnings call reiterated that hey, you know our Target of growing 50% kager compounded annual growth rate.

It gets harder as the numbers get bigger and bigger. Now we do have the facilities to facilitate a lot of growth for Tesla Giga Berlin and Texas just now really scaling. There's a lot of empty room still to fill up. We've got the permits ready for Giga Mexico but Elon slow walking.

That thanks to, well, how hard it is to sell cars when interest rates are as high as they are. Now, the good news is, there's a belief that maybe these rates have finally peaked out Bonds right now. though, every day we get fluctuation. We're not going straight down right.

We're at 4555 right now. We've been sitting there for about 3 days now After that Jobs report been relatively stable. What else do we know? Well, we know that Adam Jones suggests that Uh, Elon's influence over investor sentiment is pretty big, and unfortunately, Elon's attitude was slightly, if not outright pessimistic in the last earnings call. Now maybe it's understandably just realistic, right? That of course, when interest rates are high, Tesla's going to suffer.

It's an interest rate sensitive sector unlike Nvidia which isn't Now A lot of folks have been hitting me up saying Kevin Why is NVIDIA Rising again Nvidia is a fantastic stock. It's a great company, but you have to think about the customer base. The customer base of an Nvidia chip is a rich Corporation with plenty of cash to invest. They just move their Capex from one area to another and they're milking money off of interest rates.

The opposite is true for Tesla Tesla Customers are getting absolutely reamed by higher rates. It's kind of like you look at people getting reamed over at Disney and so Disney stock even though it's doing fantastic today up 7% Disney stock has been a complete cluster F Uh, for really. quite frankly, the last two years I mean we're at coid lows essentially. but what's it actually been good for 50% of users now signing up for the ad supported tier at Disney which is surprising, but it's great.

For a company like Tradesk which supports Connected TV advertising, it's a platform for shopping for Connected TV advertising. Uh, anyway. uh, another thing that's hitting Tesla a bit right now is this idea that, oh, what about the Cyber truck? uh, expectations for the Cyber truck are being reduced. You've got bearish news almost daily on the Cyber truck, people complaining about prototypes having panel gaps and a lot of this just straight nonsense.

but also the idea that most of the profit from Tesla and this is the bull argument will come from SAS software FSD Now Cruz just had a very embarrassing failure, revealing that they use more drivers for their driverless cars than Uber uses per car, which is kind of scary. The New York Times revealed in their reporting that 1.5 humans engage for every single single cruise that's on roads. So in other words, you have 1.5 workers working on every single cruise that's driving at any given time. And that's why human interventions occur every about four to five miles that the car drives.

That's not good, that's not autonomous technology. On the flip side, Tesla's autopilot to say hey, does it have some quirks? With some updates? of course, every single time is it getting so much substantially better over the last 3 years to where we justify the stock price being flat? Probably not. The stock should be representing a substantially more value, but unfortunately, it's very difficult in this sort of environment. and it's just an easy short to take interest rates up short the interest rate sensitive sectors.

It's an easy trade. It's a rough time, tax loss harvesting time, and you're getting these price targets coming out from companies that are really just jumping on the bandwagon of a declining stock. It's a great time to increase position and allocation potentially obviously not personalized advice for you. The problem though with that is people are out of money.

What are you going to sell? What are you get? Where are you going to get more money to be able to buy and increase your allocation to the stock? So that is something else that is hurting Tesla stock in the near- term. Otherwise, it's worth looking at. Uh, competition fears briefly. I Mean first of all, we know there's virtually no competition you look at.

U Volkswagen Though Volkswagen's talking about how they're trying to come up with a $35,000 vehicle within the next 3 to four years. but quite frankly, every Legacy auto that has suggested they're going to come up with a an electric vehicle has either scaled back their plans or has taken substantial losses. Really, your best competition right now for Tesla is Rivan. But I mean just Compare the numbers For a moment.

Tesla produces 24 Uh or I'm sorry, Tesla produces 15,000 cars per month. Rivan's manufacturing 24,000 in a 6-month period. which means you're actually sitting at 4,000 vehicles per month? Ouch. Wers uh uh.

You know, reporting that uh Volkswagen's $335,000 electric vehicle could take 3 to four months and be built in either the Us or Mexico That to me is actually a reiteration that Tesla building in Mexico is a smart decision because you're getting the benefits of the inflation reduction act. but you're using Mexican labor which is about 25% the cost you're prevailing wage in nor Eastern Mexico is like $3.50 you go to California it's like 25 bucks or or more. Uh, and then on top of this, you also have more bearish commentary about uh unionization. Uh, for example, what do you have here Biden supports UAW unionization at Tesla and Toyota That's not great, especially since Biden holds the purse.

Uh, yes, Biden carries a purse of inflation reduction, tax credits and interpretations for uh, electric vehicle charging stations and otherwise. Problem with this is it is possible that at some point in the future the Biden Administration could try to put the screws to Tesla and say look, if you want keep getting credits, we're going to demand some unionization. That's pure speculation right now. that's not confirmed at all.

I Just do think a lot of people are going to be very fearful about that potential happening personally. I Actually don't think it's that big of a deal. uh, that uh that that unionization might be on its way I Do think it would be a short-term negative Catalyst But what's more of an impact in my opinion for Tesla is hands down simply rates HSBC Goes on to also call a the Tesla problem a problem of the single man risk. I Actually don't really believe that I know HSBC is a big fan of believing that Elon's the best marketer possible for Tesla which is true, especially when they don't really do ads.

Uh, you know it's also their their uh, their Community But really, what you have with with Elon is somebody who has inspired a in my opinion, fantastic company at Tesla and also even at Twitter with going on you know I Was complaining about two weeks ago that uh Community notes will Community Note One video and go. This is a fake video, but then 10,000 other people will retweet the video and the community notes doesn't carry over. and just yesterday Elon announced on Twitter that they are now automatically matching Community notes when the content IDs line up so people retweet the same thing. the same Community note goes across like I Do actually strongly believe the people at Tesla and Twitter listen to the the community and you know I I know sometimes people are like oh Kevin too critical, too critical or whatever.

One of the reasons I shout or scream ideas that I have is just to hopefully give some perspective and then people, uh, working at Twitter or Tesla could go bad idea. Actually, that's not a bad idea. We'll take that one. Don't like that, don't like that.

Oh I like that one. It's like go pick ideas right? and I think as a community, that's that's how we help support uh, the companies that we're fans of. But anyway, in the meantime, yeah, look, it's a tough time. It's a tough time.

There's there's no sugar coating it. It's a tough time. I Do think that uh, we are at a place where inflation is is substantially rolling over. This is going to take time for inflation expectations to actually show that people have to feel like the pain is ending before the pain can truly end.

I Know that's tough though because it really takes you know time to to get rid of the pain. So in other words, I wouldn't go be going uh uh with that with some short-term call options anytime soon. but am I a big fan of holding firm on some of these stocks and balancing some of the exposure. The way I like to balance it is I like to go chips and I like to go interest rate sensitive that way I have if one side of the portfolio is doing well, the other side of portfolio uh, might be doing poorly, but they somewhat balance each other.

uh and I do think both of them as rates come down, ship sector continues to blow up and then you get the interest rate sensitive sector that blows up as well. That's personally one of the ways that I'm setting up for the next really decade. It's very painful right now though, but that's just the nature of buying closer to a bottom, so that's my take. Thank you so much for watching! Make sure to check out the new Bru Pro Crash courses.

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We'll see you in the next one. Goodbye, Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I Feel like nobody else knows about this? We'll We'll try a little advertising and see how it. Go Congratulations man, you have done so much. People love you people.

look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber Meet Kevin Always great to get your a take now I Have to read you a legal disclaimer: Even though I'm a licensed financial adviser, licensed real broker and becoming a stock broker, this video is neither personalized Financial advice nor real estate advice for you. It is not tax, legal, or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you. This video provides generalized perspective, information and commentary. Any third party content I Show should not be deemed endorsed by me.

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