Well, we've got to talk expectations and what catalysts are coming up this week, especially after the maddening banking crisis that we've been going through the Federal Reserve quote-unquote bailout. They don't want us to use that phrase, but they're just lying to us and what's going on with expectations for CPI this week? So first things first: on a Tuesday we're gonna get Lennar earnings. We'll get a small Business Optimism survey. That survey is expected to come in with a read of 90.2 Prior read was 90.3 We have CPI Consumer Price Index expectations coming out for tomorrow at 5 30 A.m We will be getting CPI readings I will be streaming them live so make sure you are here 5 30 A.m Pacific Time 8 30 A.m Eastern time What do we have? Expectations are: CPI Month over month prior Read 0.5 This read: Point four: that's four point eight percent annualized CPI month over month Core Prior Read: Point Four This read expected to be 0.4 CPI year over year prior Read 6.4 The current survey says six percent CPI X Food and energy In other words, core year over year prior Read 5.6 Current read or Survey: 5.5 That's going to be a big deal.

Not only do we have that for Tuesday to prepare for, but we also have PPI and some other price indices coming up for the rest of the week. So let's go through all of those together. But first, when it comes to these expectations for CPI, it's really important to remember that that month over month number, in my opinion, is the most important we want. Month over month headline and month over month core to hopefully.

Miss to the Lower Side Keep in mind Joe Biden already gave us a spoiler alert on CPI he said CPI will be coming in good on Tuesday now who knows what kind of leak or information he got, but I think that was a way of him trying to signal to markets Please Don't panic on my watch, Inflation's going away. Everything is going to be A-Okay and as long as inflation goes away, the Federal Reserve can pivot. Now is it possible that Joe Biden is is trying to soothe the economy and then potentially at the same time cook the CPI books? Sure, anything's possible, but the goal is from the side that we can actually look at data to Hope CPI reads come in low and that would give the Federal Reserve more ammunition to backstop the economy as necessary and if necessary or as it continues to be necessary. because personally, I think a 25 billion dollar bailout for the banks, it was a little bit of a drop of the bucket compared to the toxic assets that they really have.

But but hey, then again, we'll see Uh after that we have on uh Wednesday ooh The Ides of March coming up. Uh, keep in mind we also expiring next week have a coupon code for the programs on building your wealth. All of them. It's the Stocks and Psychology of Money Group Most popular zero to millionaire real estate investing.

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Uh, via the link down below. So moving on with these catalysts when Wednesday we can't Uh oh, we do also get retail sales on Tuesday Let's keep going with retail sales first then. So uh, oops, nope, sorry. I Put that in the wrong spot.

Retail sales is Wednesday I was right about that. Okay retail sales Wednesday Uh, Retail sales expected to come in at point four. To the downside: Month over month excluding Auto We're looking for a negative point One excluding Auto and gas negative 0.3 Retail sales controls negative point three that stands in Stark contrasts the numbers that we had in January In January you literally had negative point Four Negative point One Negative point Three, Negative or sorry, that's those are the expectations. Negative three: Uh, that's the expectation.

Now for February What you actually had right before that in a January was three percent, two point three percent, two point six percent, and one point seven percent. So a massive cooling of retail sales is expected on Wednesday. That report comes out at 5 30 a.m right at the same time as we get the PPI numbers. Oh My gosh, So much stuff CPI on Tuesday PBI On Wednesday Retail sales on Wednesday And here are the PPI numbers, which is the producer price index.

The last PPI read: we had a month over month PPI of 0.7 That's terrible. That's 8.4 annualized. What did we end up getting in survey this time: 0.3 PPI Core month over month 0.4 is the expectation down from 0.5 last time. Ppix, Food, Energy and Trade uh 0.3 versus 0.6 the last time Final Demand 5.4 versus 6 last time.

So that will be on uh Wednesday on Tuesday We also get Adobe Q1 earnings uh Wednesday We get the National Association of home builders uh, calling for a read of 40 on housing market optimism indices that is, uh, slightly higher than uh, what we had in December which was the lowest level that we've seen in a decade for home builder confidence. Thursday We get Dollar General and FedEx conference calls. We're going to be looking for evidence of potentially a wage spiral and on Friday we get the University of Michigan's forecast for Consumer sentiment. Looking for a read of about 67.4 Now, a lot of courses being made of a wage price spiral because a lot of people are expecting that a wage price spiral is exactly what could lead to the essential unleashing of a Paul Volcker where basically markets get rug pulled where interest rates have to Skyrocket in order to event a prevent a wage price spiral.

Barons Uh, and look. I've argued this plenty of time before. so I don't want to sound redundant that we're seeing a lack of pricing power for wages whether it's in health care or even retail Hospitality it's allowed easier to find people Uber Lyft are talking about it Chipotle is talking about it Starbucks is talking about it. The software companies are talking about it.

these are all in earnings calls. It's very clear there's really no wage price spiral which is good and those conditions could change but knock on wood they don't Barons though uh, did have a piece in their uh Sunday magazine or Saturday magazine. Uh, Anyway, they talk about that. Talk about a wage price spiral.

It's wrong. Fear among policy makers and others that accelerating wages must push prices up is basically wrong. And so they give this sort of analysis where they say, look, if prices go up five percent and wages go up five percent, but productivity also goes up a little bit, then wages really only went up about three percent and labor it only contributes about 80 percent to the cost of producing goods and services. So then that's really only like a 2.4 percent increase.

And then since we can reduce, uh, these sort of increases by Housing Services as well, that a five percent increase in wages really only increases CPI by about 1.4 percent. This is their crazy math for how they came to this conclusion, but they're basically trying to make the argument that what Wage price? Sparrow There's no wage price spiral here, but that does. Aside from sort of their funny math, it is reiterated by what's actually happening in the data. so they're not necessarily wrong here, even though I think their math is a little bit of a stretch.

I Think what's more important for markets this week will obviously be the Silicon Valley banking crisis. How much is that going to lead to bank runs at other Banks I'm going to be flying over to a NorCal so if you're if you're in NorCal slide into the DMS on Twitter or IG I will be uh, probably in the Santa Clara Palo Alto San Jose region today. Uh I Want to see what's going on at the banks I Want to meet some VCS So if you're startup founder or a VC I I would love to talk to you so hit me up in the DMS It's gonna be really interesting to see what happens, but uh yeah. uh wow.

Okay, a lot of catalysts this week they're going to be big things we want to pay attention to.