Really fun fact about the market gasoline seems to have hit peak at the same same time roughly as the nasdaq and s p 500 hit bottom interesting thing to attention to much like that coupon code on building your wealth expiring on the 28 take advantage of that 50 off and i'll see you there hey everyone me kevin here. It is july 25th. Which you know what that means we got lots of things to talk about for catalyst coming up this week. Including j pal and of course coupon expiration on the 28th don't get another not a big hit in the price so make sure to join those programs on building your wealth before that expiration okay folks let's talk about this so the first big thing that we really have to focus on this week.

Is absolutely earnings and here's what people are looking for and markets are looking for anything that indicates weaker consumer demand apple for example just put their cell phones on sale in china because of devastating consumer demand for smartphones in china. We've already seen smart phone sales are down nine percent globally in the second quarter uh that's at least based on some analytic firms and so anything that indicates a weaker consumer demand is creating a concern for example this morning also we had squarespace the website hosting company and building company the drag and drop company. They slightly missed and they revised down their expected earnings for q3 by only about a percent and a half. It was super nominal stock fell like 12 to 14 percent immediately.

Why because people are looking for where is the strong consumer at the beginning of the year people are like get out well. I mean. I was one of the folks saying get out of consumer discretionaries that was like an easy play. But a lot of folks decided to yolo it into consumer staples.

But a lot of consumer staples. Still got whacked. I mean you look at like walmart or even the staple aspect of of costco or target. Although costco's come back a little bit nowhere near what we thought it was going to do though uh.

It's shocking. So you got to be really careful instead. What the market is really doing is they're parsing out and saying okay look walmart inventory is going up weaker consumer here don't care if it's a staple or discretionary not going to perform as well so when we have companies reporting this week like microsoft google visa coca cola mcdonald's ups gm facebook qualcomm shopify spotify apple amazon roku sony and ford i guarantee you when all of these people are going to be looking for a strong consumer by the way do you want to be super and get earnings transcripts like right away check out metkevincom. Seeking alpha and not only get their analysis.

But get earnings transcripts right away and you can get their premium subscription for 50 off great platform for not only future projections on data and financials for companies. But a lot of insightful articles and those freaking earnings transcripts. Which i love downloading and then doing a search for inside those articles for keywords like demand and recession and consumer. It's a great way to stay in tune and in touch with the market methkevincom.

Seeking alpha in fact. This is exactly why i put the vast majority of my personal position uh over this the the last few months of dips that we've had here into tesla. Because i expect markets to look for companies that have extremely exceptional demand. And the company that has exceptional demand and told us about exceptional demand is tesla now of course.

There were issues with the shanghai shutdowns uh and elon musk gave us a very fair warning. He goes look we are selling bitcoin to raise cash because if china keeps us locked down for another six months. We're gonna need it so he was very smart to do that and prepared and even in their last 10 q. Which came out this morning.

They told us hey look. We should be good with our cash position to where we don't have to raise money as long as macro economic. You know the macroeconomic situation doesn't deteriorate all of a sudden substantially or essentially shanghai locks uh a tesla down that would be terrible again uh or well the city of shanghai china locks shanghai giga shanghai down again that would be terrible. But uh tesla did also tell us that hey uh.

We are now raising how much we think we're going to spend on capital expenses. Like labor costs at the factories materials inflationary costs freight whatever by about a billion dollars more than expected in 2022. They were expecting to spend another uh five to seven billion dollars in capex for the rest of the year now they're actually revising that up to six to eight again that just came out in the 10q this morning and the stock doesn't care the stock's actually turning green. Why it's because of a strong consumer that's what that's what investors are looking for that's what wall street is looking for right now.

I'm convinced of that and that's why when i'm picking companies to invest in i'm picking companies where the companies are proving. The consumer is strong this in my opinion is exactly why end phase is kicking butt and it's positive here today is because they are an earnings report that anybody can read and look at and go damn the consumer's strong now is that potentially going to slow down if people think that household or home prices are going to slow down yeah entirely. But we have not seen that yet and if anything we've seen 10 year treasuries come off peak. I'm actually long on on some treasuries right now because i think there's a potential for treasury yields to continue to tick down a little bit.

That's actually going to be great for real estate. So you could actually see the softest landing of of all markets in real estate. And you have to watch this very very carefully because you don't want to miss the opportunity to buy which we'll be doing a lot of uh especially with the series a coming up combination of real. Estate investing and.

Sas you can go to medkevincom. Series a to sign up to learn more about that and of course course members will have first shot at investing in that and we might even close it down to so that only course members uh end up investing uh depending on uh depending on how the first uh 30 days goes. So. We'll see so uh the the next thing that we want to pay attention to really corresponds to these earnings here and it's that household net worth deterioration is is likely to continue and why this matters is is really because you're you've got the situation in macro or in the macro economy.

Right now. Where inflation is outpacing people's wages. But most people compared to 2019 are a lot richer today than they were in 19. And we still have a lingering feeling of like we want to keep spending.

So you've got two things right you even the wealth has come down from november like peak to where we are now people's wealth generally people who have invested is lower than what it was in november. People are still wealthier compared to 2019. So it's not really a surprise that in many areas. We're still seeing a very very strong consumer.

Which is great. But we do expect that to slow down because wages aren't keeping pace so at some point. We are going to see more slowdowns at the various different companies. And this is why the forward looking stock market is punishing companies that are suggesting they have a weak consumer.

This is why snapchat and their ability to to convert uh advertisements or or to get more advertisements on their platform with companies because companies are seeing a weaker consumer. So they're turning off ads. So snapchat falls 40 to 50. What was it on thursday or friday or whatever it all boils down to the consumer.

Some people like to say oh i don't care about the consumer. We don't have to pay attention to the consumer dude. The consumer is everything that's literally what people care about now joe biden and the white house decided to release a statement on a big catalyst that we have coming out this week. Which is on july 28th.

We expect to get gdp numbers which could be negative. Which means we are technically in a recession. We're not in an officially declared recession though until this group of eight fancy economists at the national bureau of economic research declare that we're in a recession. But that usually takes anywhere between uh.

4 to 14 months after we get this kind of data to declare that we're in a recession. And we could end up being in a actual technical recession. That is a negative gdp two quarters in a row. But not an economically declared recession.

Because jobs are doing so well that's entirely possible but i don't honestly think anybody cares about that we care about this gdp print uh coming up on the 28th this week just the same day the coupon code expires and you really want to take advantage of that because you'll be getting the best deal the price always goes up and it won't ever be cheaper than today. But anyway in my opinion. This is joe biden basically trying to hedge for the midterm elections to say like oh crap yeah. We might be in a technical recession.

That's going to create a lot of headlines. Let's try to get ahead of the story by going don't worry even if we have two quarters of negative gdp in a row doesn't necessarily mean we're in a recession. It's it's total bs and total nonsense and it's kind of lame. It almost makes me think the opposite that they know it's going to come in negative and they're just trying to get ahead of the news kind of weird.

But of course. The day before the 28th. Which again that coupon expiration and keep in mind you'll get my fundamental analysis in those programs on things like what i'm doing now. Which is the great dollar short.

I'm shorting the dollar and that position is straight up since uh since when i initiated that short uh. I i kind of still encourage shorting the dollar right now but uh that will be a trade that will not be a long term hold uh. But anyway and then those are things we talk about in our course. Member live streams.

I do my best to do those regularly while i'm traveling sometimes i just can't because of the internet or whatever reasons. But my goal is to always especially when i'm in the office. Make sure we get a lot of good. Fundamental analysis.

Live streams together both for real estate and stocks. And you want to be part of those with lifetime access in those programs. So the day before july 28th. Though we have the fed meeting and at the 27th.

We're expecting the fed to raise rates. 75 basis points. They really need to here. Because even though inflation expectations have come down on in the bond.

Market we're sitting at a five year break even right now of 258. And we've seen consumer expectations for inflation going out three to five years rotate down even though we've seen that what's really really really important is that the fed walks the walk now because if the fed goes soft on us markets. Could think you're too soft inflation. Expectations go right back up.

Then we got a nightmare. We need the fed to talk dirty to us here. And and punish us. They need to spank us.

Again okay. They didn't do great last time. I mean they gave us the 75. But they they were still a little soft go hard this time.

Give us the 75 talk angrily to us tell us about how inflation is still broad. Based. And you still have a lot more work to do fine. That's actually going to be what markets want to hear personally.

I think as long as they go 75. And they talk strongly and firmly and they keep talking inflation down. We'll actually see inflation rotate down towards the end of the year. And we'll see break evens continue to rotate down.

Maybe peak 10 year treasury is behind us. Which would be great especially for the housing market. It would be great for the housing market be great for stocks keep in mind that right. Now the market is pricing in with a 792.

Percent. Certainty of a 75 basis point hike uh and i and personally i think you want to be bullish on the second half now i do think uh all of these earnings coming up if we have even slight misses or revisions down you're going to see some pretty volatile moves. But i think those are buying opportunities you'll be able to buy so have some cash available. I'm a big fan in my opinion.

It's not a recommendation for you not financial advice of course. But i'm a big fan of like 85 in right now and maybe 10 to 15 cash. So uh. We got the fed uh all these earnings coming up some folks by the way are seeing bullish patterns.

I'll throw up a chart here bullish patterns on uh on the nasdaq and technology companies. We'll throw this chart up here and we're seeing a bullish reversal on the chart pattern. Which you can see here uh and uh. Some are saying hey maybe.

It's time for some call options on t qqq triple q uh triple nasdaq that's very very very very risky. But it seems to be an interesting potential a play or trade right now so uh watch the consumer folks. Very very very critical watch these earnings. I will be covering them i'll be covering the fed meeting this week take advantage of the coupon code and folks we'll see in the next one thanks so much goodbye.